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| 00:29 | hi friends hi SE hi SE how you keeping it's it's hi everybody it's uh early in the morning for you isn't it it's yes yes it's 6: am for you oh no it's 7 AM 7 amm yeah yeah um I I've got um a little um thought experiment yeah I'd like to put on the chat and discuss Maybe if that's okay by you I'll put it up put on the agenda well I'll put up the the it's it's only a paragraph long uh okay here we go um oh you can't see me let's turn my thing on here we |
| 01:22 | go all right let's have a look then is it's nearly time uh right as a thought experiment if we assume that dvms this is um deal vertical migration of uh fish in the ocean isn't it yep occur every day that DM species consume 5% of the body mass each day and bi Mas 60 water carbon the I'm going to have to read this again all right have the order of the falling effect oh gosh right we have have to look at that and think about it it's fairly simple maths but uh I'm just sort of thinking about a million |
| 02:10 | things um SE so well not a million things but you know um managing managing the meeting so somebody will look at that and work it out so you're saying 18 gigatons of carbon is requested at depth what's that per day or per year okay so there a calculation to say all right that's C what's that Ruth Bruce that's current that's currently happening that's what the ocean is doing right now what you agreeing or or you're saying asking that's a thought experiment that's what I'm assuming |
| 02:45 | yeah yeah you so that's what you're saying must be happening or or could be happening seev yes and that means that U if we can increase that by maybe to threefold using things like boy and Flakes and bringing up nutrients from low lower down we should be able to sequester a whole lot of carbon if there's if there's a lot of DVM okay so what you're saying hasn't this been proposed already hasn't this been um put anybody done a paper on this to say what d i I proposed it a while back and they have been recent |
| 03:30 | supportive papers on it saying that we we've grossly underestimated a the amount of uh Marine biomass which which vertically migrates uh and on the amount of uh of carbon it would suor so yes they have been papers okay and and have they agreed with that sort of those sort of they haven't they haven't seen my stuff but they saying it's been grossly uh underestimated before all right but they haven't given their own figures then by the sound of things um not a little bit not not 100% maybe not |
| 04:12 | as clearly yeah okay so they must have some idea otherwise wouldn't be able to say it's been underestimated yeah yeah okay um well so that's a thought experiment um do can anyone see any any major gaps in that thought experiment granted that it's it's back of envelope rough as guts right well let's put it on the agenda uh seev um thought experiment yeah sev's thought experiment about uh DVM um carbon sequestration yeah uh right um okay um uh all right I put that down so let's just get rid of |
| 05:07 | that one um agenda uh so and um okay so seev um thought experiments let's um annual Ocean Sea sequestration uh thought experiment yeah okay yeah right okay and I think Bruce you've got something yeah talk about one and a half degrees the limit I think we've got a problem not a problem but some interesting new analysis okay so this is next year's |
| 06:10 | temperature is what you're saying I think isn't it yeah I'm saying we've I'm we are already at at the 1.5 limit as we speak yeah yeah I think J Jim Hansen says that doesn't he yeah but this but yes or no it's um I'm not sure there's a feeling about about understanding why we are okay let say I'll look at the figures okay because uh your graphs I looked at the figures and I was a bit overwhelmed then I saw the graphs and then it made sense right okay good evening Brew good to see |
| 06:55 | you yeah you're you're muted and everybody uh yeah good evening everybody hi I'm here yes great and Robert Chris and John made it hi hi John okay these meetings tend to fill up over time um I I do hope that so did did everyone see the presuming you must have seen the additional email I sent out because I realized it's a different link such a boring thing that mistake that I made um anyone who's not here can't answer and they're probably wondering what's going on uh hopefully they'll check in their |
| 07:35 | emails um so I've been one did I mention this before about the email list so many of us get three emails uh because there's three lists that we're all members of and I and I approached the hpack people and and said you know I don't mind just giving up no the Noak list as long as I can use hpack to just make uh manage these meetings just send the init invitations and so forth any comments from anybody about that sounds sensible to me right I'm going to push them on that if anyone from there turns up uh okay |
| 08:20 | anything else to discuss today we don't have Chris Vivian today it's unusual perhaps he's away or something hi would like to discuss um that the uh cop uh tr8 has failed the IPC strategy has failed and the reason and the reason why I say theyve failed is not because they've um not managed to find a successful way of reducing CO2 emissions MH but because they've allowed dangerous climate change to occur and their original remit was to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate change yeah but it's |
| 09:21 | happening so they failed yeah okay could declare that it's just fa time to just say Hey look it's failed no I think we could make a declaration of some kind yeah uh well put that's that's I like that uh declare that's that cop has failed yeah yeah yeah that's that's good I'm starting to think of it as Conference of the pretenses hi Aila welcome nice to see again I'm really sorry that I'm late no no no no apologies nice to see you all yeah absolutely yes you're busy my |
| 10:16 | course is finished now so I can come back to the come back to the lovely me great for a while yeah okay you're welcome here uh Jonathan welcome yeah you got your hand up Jonathan yeah thanks um I think we uh we each individually and as a group and as a whole science we we uh are subject to the problem of uh failing to see the forest for the trees uh one of the trees that I've been studying a lot lately uh that I I need to get above it and look at it from the forest point of view it looks like the the science and the math for figuring |
| 11:01 | out the infrared Photon we'll call it a photon for now the infrared Photon migrating from either the water surface of the ocean or down deep in the ocean and then to the surface and then to the atmosphere and then through the clouds and then to the stratosphere and then hopefully out the the science and the math involved in making that calculation correctly and figuring out the primary and secondary effects of each change that we might make lowering the surface temperature of the ocean increasing the cloud cover decreasing another kind of |
| 11:39 | cloud cover higher up adding more moisture here taking moisture away adding something to the stratosphere this whole mathematics of figuring out this infrared essentially of the planet is so complex that I don't know if we can figure it out theoretically without a lot of experiments which means that when when I back out and I look at the forest I really see the repelling of visible light uh short wavelength energy as a fairly straightforward piece of physics and math that if we can simply uh keep the uh short wavelength |
| 12:24 | energy from switching into a long wavelength infrared Photon and trying to make its way back out that kind of math and that kind of physics is is understandable so I'd like us to try to put some time it eventually into simple physics of treating the inom light and not this other stuff if other people agree that the the physics of this exiting infrared Photon seems beyond human calculation okay let let me give you my take on CU I'm not an expert on those kind of calculations I I can imagine just like you're saying is very |
| 12:58 | complicated but but what I read from Jim Hansen uh in the pipeline paper is that this uh radiation the the long you know the long wave radiation out has is quite well known and measured but what they haven't been able to measure until recently with the this so-called experiment of cutting the sulfur emissions uh um is um that what they haven't been Al to measure is the cloud albo reflection they didn't know how efficient the clouds were at reflecting the shortwave radiation uh and and they just and they |
| 13:35 | asked for measurement they had some sort of measurement device a couple of satellites and it was better than nothing U but they didn't have precise measurement so there were these big eror bars you know in the with the ipcc was it Forester or someone Forester um the paper that goes in the ipcc with that says that you know the the negative forcing from they just call it aerosols I think they mean clouds was with huge erab bars because they couldn't measure it properly um but now that they uh they've |
| 14:03 | seen and he in his most recent thing he said uh one degrees a forcing of sorry yeah uh one watt per meter squared from the loss of pollution but only because not not because they've got proper measure a proper satellite measurement but because the shipping has been told to reduce that um so that's how that's what as I understand it does that does that alter your thoughts about it Jonathan because there there do seem to be very clever people that can work that longwave stuff out that's what I'm |
| 14:36 | that's what I'm pointing out is that the longwave effects are fairly easy to measure uh and calculate um and in the example you gave you you uh intentionally didn't mention the effect that the upwelling infared photons might have had in helping them Escape uh due to the reduction of the CL CLS over the ocean due to the reduction in the sulfur coming out of well I didn't intentionally but you're right that yes that I acknowledge that yes clouds also trap heat that's right yeah but that aspect of it is is uh very |
| 15:12 | difficult to calculate with with certainty whereas the simple albo reflection coefficient coming off of more clouds versus less clouds that are whiter with the right you know moisture level and that kind of thing is forward okay so we want to put this as this uh should we talk about this then um we've already talked about it a little bit uh just the way we could phrase it is um we need to spend as a little more time on the long on the short wavelength uh calculations because there's so much Cal conf complexity in the in the in the |
| 15:51 | long wavelength emissive calculations there's the ocean the atmosphere the you know it's like um okay I mean I'm so uh where should we put this then what who's got an idea about where to put this second or or third I mean I'm not uh I'm not sure if any of us some of us here are quite some people here are pretty expert this kind of stuff um but I don't think anyone here is writing papers on it you know scientific papers and and sort of controlling instruments doing the measurement so |
| 16:26 | um we can we can talk about it I let's put it here um we should talk about the thing as fail but let's leave that to the end um keep the sort of sciency stuff first so uh can I just write John like that um so calculating uh calculating um uh is that right calculating um uh longwave uh he Escape I mean I don't know how they do it because there's all this thing about trans transpiration and there's the Earth's energy budget I've got it on you know you can get it from the ipcc can't you |
| 17:11 | with all those big arrows coming up and down with some of its transporation some of its infared but they they seem to be able to work it out miraculously anyway we'll put that there um to to to discuss that so I'm going to write Earth's energy budget so because I think a lot of people will we we'll know you know what I'm talking about there I think uh budget okay um that might be enough is there anything else anybody wanted to talk [Music] about no let's Okay so let's uh yeah let's look at um your your things want |
| 17:52 | to introduce your thing again so have you put something in the chat for for people that that missed that that that um that link in the chat tells tells us that um the the underestimate was was very significant and the new estimate is 10 gigatons of fish biomass right so just to summarize it's a thought experiment to say that uh you think um with given um 10 gig 10 gatons per day of BCP what's that of of fish biomass um excretion biological carbon pump biological carbon pump right they're basically 18 gigatons if there's plenty |
| 18:43 | of fish there that's what that is if that's hasn't all been you know fished out the water yet um then 18 gigatons of carbon could be being sequestered at depth yeah of carbon that's an enormous amount of carbon because I know now there are off there are some offsetting flows of course that's just one one element you know in water which is warming up would would send CO2 back in the atmosphere a whole lot of other things so it's not it's not a net amount but that's what the the fish which |
| 19:20 | migrate which is now the mopic fish which is by far the greatest volume of fish biomass that shows you what they're likely to be taking down of between 70 and 1,000 MERS right I mean just looking at that number um the chat this right this very first item in the chat 18 gatons multiply that by is it 3. |
| 19:53 | 6 to get the amount of CO2 you don't mean CO2 do you no I mean carbon so 18 times um because that's that's 64 that's way more than than human emissions which would what what about pre-industrial what would it have been pre-industrial well three times that three times that well no wonder we were into a ice age I don't I think don't they say that about a third of human emissions are going into the ocean but something like between a third and a half yep well that wouldn't be that much wouldn't be 18 gigatons no but remember this is only |
| 20:39 | one element there are lots of other elements okay of of of carbon coming up again yeah yeah I put the calculation of how much is absorbed by the ocean uh further down in the chat yes it's it's it's two 2/3 absorbed by the ocean and one3 by land that's the normal quoted ratio and 44% of carbon dioxide which is emitted uh is um retained in the atmosphere so that means 56% is absorbed ocean yeah yeah so that's 550 6% of uh 10 B tons emitted per year of of carbon in carbon yeah yeah it's a nice |
| 21:43 | round figure and it's more or less all righty the same for the last decade or so so it's easy okay I'm wondering if you've got a sort of um your own um sort of bigger point you your behind what you're saying here SE that there might be an opportunity or something yeah yeah I'm I'm simply saying that um and Bruce saying the same thing that um if we manage to increase fish biomass by a factor you using one of these more effective ocean fertilization methods we're going to be sequestering a |
| 22:22 | whole lot more carbon in depth between well Bas basically pretty deep water which will keep most of it there for um over 100 years yeah and we're also of course if we manage to increase the pyto Plankton numbers and concentrations back to pre-industrial we're also going to be increasing the albo of the oceans and that that that albo of the oceans is enough to doubly offset the current level of global warming so we're getting a double whammy effect using ocean fertilization of both abido cooling yeah |
| 23:09 | and of carbon sequestration two for one yeah um I'm I'm familiar with this what very very good argument you're making here um seev yeah um that and you know a little bit of DMS from the F Plankton as well makes fish for um hungry people and fish for Hungry people what are the what's missed in this whole situation is a healthy biosphere Healthy Planet manages to maintain stability of its operating temperature in just the same way that you or I do we don't sweat flat out all the time we do it when we |
| 23:53 | need to and a healthy planet has the capability to survive also sorts of shocks and knocks the trouble is there comes a point when it gets overwhelmed which is what we've done now but if we were to restore the biomass and bring it back into full operation it would probably be able to sequester most of the crap that we put into it um right across the board so you know restoring the the living biomass of the planet is the is the key thing to it and there will be huge margins of error and and absorption capability in it |
| 24:28 | and this is and and actually this knocks a hole through all of the paleoclimate stuff that dear James Hansen is talking about because the situation now is totally different to the past five or six I AG cycles that we've gone through because back then there was at least double the biomass on the planet and and we we've seen these things some of as the atra monster that was some this huge Marine Beast that they've got the fossils of and for creatures that size to have existed in the ocean the productivity right through the food |
| 25:04 | chain must have been absolutely enormous um and this is the the the the words that the things they' be looking at with the um the giant shark the megal um megadon megalon megalon Megalodon to to to for a predator of that size to have existed would have required huge primary productivity so I sadly I think an awful lot of it is fundamentally flawed but actually this track is the way forward and you know so looking at these massive margins of error it should self-correct the dive down into an ice AG [Music] um that's part of the sequencing of it's |
| 25:53 | the sort of Summer to Winter on a on a grand scale as the planet responds to the minkovich Cycles which wouldn't have always been there I mean our minkovich Cycles are probably due to some large Heavenly Body whizzing through the solar system and giving us a little rock um so although massive amounts of of uh iron in the oceans and massive amount of fighter Plankton coming coming up together might cool us a bit it it would quickly self-correct H the the milankovich Cycles are amazingly stable and uh there evidence |
| 26:36 | going back U 100 million years that the E eccentricity of the planet has been uh causing one of the Cycles consistently since then yeah there's the evidence for them going back Beyond million years isn't there I think it had less effect then yeah well that's true if you if you have a top and you spin it yeah stay stable to start with and then is it yeah that's true but I think when you've got a lower they've increased yeah okay um but anyway let's not get too hung upov I could we could have a long |
| 27:23 | discussion about this offline let's stick to the to the um to the to this main point that that um which I think is what you and seev are most interested in which is yes restoring biomass um to the especially to the oceans um and France do you you often say that as well do you have any comment friend about that I think you might be muted friend I can see you're muted yeah what what you said before uh F blankon uh and DMs and Cloud making would also cool uh Lots lot lot down yeah yes but what about they just having |
| 28:07 | you know millions and millions of fish in the ocean does that help does it give the you know ocean a bigger capacity to draw down carbon dioxide with that you know surely a lot of uh more carbon going down from uh uh how do you call it uh with the fees yeah yeah yeah I mean when there's more carbon in the air if the ocean is healthy then presumably you should get more F Plankton and uh uh as you know if you have uh less F Plankton like now and uh a very uh less uh fish uh the fop Plankton uh sinking uh it is reoxidation and uh it |
| 29:06 | will not work uh like uh in a in a healthy ocean with much fish going down up and down which don't uh uh get the F plun on U getting eaten making litter yeah it is eaten before before it becomes litter yeah yeah so this is what the oceanographers say if you just grow lots of fter planks and it sinks down and most of it oxidizes back to bicarbonate so it comes out of CO2 somewhere but whereas if fish are eating it they're they're pumping it down much more I think that's your point yeah yes with with DVM with because they they |
| 29:49 | grade up and down every day often very deep down to 1,000 MERS when they get down to 1,000 Metter they risk there for several hours while they digest their meal and respire and both the the feces and the respiration leaves the carbon down at that deep level yeah yeah yeah yeah so you've put a calculation so I think what if if you're saying something new it's combined with what Brew is saying that uh that it could be a very large amount and certainly well and could be a lot more you because the Earth the biomass |
| 30:30 | responds to to changes if it's a healthy biomass basically is that the GU is the planet the planet organism can actually help maintain good conditions but we've been slowly killing guia and therefore she's not able to do it so much yeah yeah but then you need uh uh regions when no Fish can be should be uh put out that that would help particularly you don't want to have Crill being fish because Krill are the best organism for taking down carbon down to a kilometer depth every day and we we we've lost two-thirds of |
| 31:17 | the kill already and we're we're fishing more of it 23s yeah yeah at least at least 2/3 yeah at least 23 bear in mind of course also as the CO2 levels go up in the atmosphere you start to change the the the pH of the ocean and that changes the um Plankton mix the plant mix uh moves you into a bunch of rather nastier algis which then start changing the CO2 oxygen balance in the oceans very quickly which is what's happening toones regrow quickly hi Brian if they're given enough food are you speaking to us |
| 32:01 | Brian yeah the Krill can grow back quickly if they're given enough food they can or they can't they can if they have enough Plankton to eat and of course the Plankton grow quickly as well it's all about restoring nutrient levels to pre-industrial conditions yeah great yeah good to see you again Brian um yeah um pleasure yeah and and I think think U I'll just say this um that um yes there's been a 40% loss of P plon growth since about the 50s I think Canadian study that's that is frightening 40% nearly half primary |
| 32:43 | productivity unless anyone says thinks that's wrong yeah and that makes also the ocean more acidic because uh uh f plon when it uh a mass of f Plankton when it greens it uh makes ocean Aline Aline yeah it raises the pH yeah yeah that's right yeah John we've we've all seen the sort of magnificent cck for blooms which really are quite white quite reflective and no doubt more reflective than a lot of toxic blooms which you blooms and things that absorb more more heat and so we do need more of the the really clean |
| 33:34 | healthy cockold blooms and we talked about DMS and so forth but the other thing is calm seas calm seas are more reflective than turbulent Seas which U because it's a more more of a mirrored surface so with with with more storms and more severe St turbulence on the surface that maybe that absorbs more heat as well which is is is that right I I would have thought there'd be more sort of surf more of the sort of white surf if it well that's that's the compensating Factor that's right so you |
| 34:05 | get more Aerosoles from the from the stir up with that but there's a balance point there somewhere as well too but yeah look get get the life back into the ocean that's the key to it and that means food it's very simple yeah do does anyone is anyone skeptical about this thinks that you know this this is all just just people being nice and green and things but it's not really hard-nosed thinking no it seems like everyone agrees but how on that it is hard no thinking it's bi chemistry r at large |
| 34:42 | and supported by Decades of intensive research in pelagic ocean biological carbon pump yeah okay thanks Mark I I would just comment that um this is all push pushing in the right direction and excellent towards the Healthy Planet and necessary for eventually having a uh restoring a planet to a decent State um but whether this can actually tackle the current climate crisis I'm rather I'm rather doubtful that we can produce enough cooling uh This Way um so certainly we can't refee The Arc this way but we but I'm not sure we |
| 35:32 | could even make much impact on global homeing I can't faar John um I've done some other calculations which show that um if we can um slightly green the Seas it it is enough to offset twice the amount of global warming from the CO2 we've got so it is well and truly a a strong effect which will help refreeze the Arctic maybe not on its own but it'll help a great deal it'll stop the warm water going into the Arctic for one thing okay I think that if you've got the calculations we should certainly put |
| 36:20 | that on the list of of SRM methods yeah so so so can you can you send me those calculations because that's what I'm trying to do at the moment I I'll do it I've got got a a short paragraph saying uh albo enhancement and that that'll give you the the figures great okay all right that's that's useful John it's useful to know that uh yeah you'd you'd have to um increase the albo more than Steven Suter can do with his ships because I've shown that that's not enough um to count actually John's |
| 37:09 | talking about doing about 10% of the sea the bant flakes would do about 80% of the sea but at a a much uh um less degree of brightness than than clouds okay we I think you meant um stepen is proposing 10% yes y yeah yeah okay and what's the 80% 80% the 80 yeah by the way it's been demonstrated just based on the IMO negative experiment that it's all a matter of degree we certainly have seen in the last few years that with enough ships crossing the ocean with enough particles you can see substantial uh cooling which |
| 37:56 | occurred in the last century and has just stopped as of January 2023 for all intents and purposes right so there is certainly an existence proof that it's simply a matter of degree and um thus there's a precedent for reversing the negative experiment that we're doing this year yeah yeah and hence Ron Ban's letter and and so forth and yeah particularly in international waters which is where it matters you know if you're within 300 km of shore or you don't give off particles at least not the the sulfur ones right um but in |
| 38:33 | international waters yeah the the IMO letter goes a long way to suggesting a path forward that's responsible yeah bit tricky if they're using low sulfur fuels now and there's been investment in that they were for years they were using both they had to use low fuels in EZ Waters and they use high sulfur fuels in international waters okay they've already been doing it for decades yeah so it's just Absol going back to the you know when you go the wrong way turn around yeah well not that complicated yeah yeah okay I just think |
| 39:12 | that might that might be a lot of face saving and in totally reversing it I think it might be easy to sell the idea of of balancing with more benign Eros Sals you know ring Cloud sea Sals of course and I added that I think initially that they may be May accept that rather and say oh we got it wrong yeah sorry which maybe we can slowly reintroduce sare further offshore again after that se spray is an Oculus we can confirm how well it works and look forward to doing that but we need to scale it soon yeah yeah they haven't |
| 39:47 | been able to get it to work as far as far as I know or have they they Great Barrier no money has gone into it there's like there's aund ways of not doing it we've got people around the world including Steven Salter um Arman nikans and others who know how to do it and we're working with them to make it happen it's all about funding at this point okay okay yeah we're also thinking as you know uh France is very much an aerosol expert chemist chemist and so we we' also got our own thoughts about what |
| 40:22 | what could be done at low cost but we're working it's time to raise funding for it that's one reason we've set up re bright and.org to um really help to raise the awareness and get the private support that can help develop the public support absolutely Brian yeah I showcased that I think last time I think we've been missing it because I didn't send out the calendar invite isn't that I was thinking why why are we not seeing Brian anymore and it struck me you're missing out on the calendar invite |
| 40:49 | invite yeah sadly I'm so if it's not on my calendar it doesn't exist so thank you for the week and that was very helpful no problem yeah okay let's anything else on that or should we move on it's very helpful discussion very educational for everybody yeah yeah I'm just going to say that that comes into the next bit the touch but actually if this is all correct and we're now talking about funding you can take the pressure off the hydrocarbon companies a little bit and say we can correct with u |
| 41:20 | boyant Flakes and ocean greeding and looks like there's a bit of slack in the system so you can make your transition a little longer come on board and fund it yeah it might be you know a realistic practical proposition yeah it's funny you should say that I was thinking the same thing myself yeah be able to go to them and say uh yeah you're off the hook a little bit well you're not going to you're not going to do it anyway let's face it you know they're not otherwise they'd have a carbon tax well we it's |
| 41:56 | right you can't let societal structures collapse we all need energy and increasingly more large amounts of energy yeah that's right and they've got huge amounts of money yeah exactly yeah it's just being approached in the wrong way exactly yeah okay all right um so Bruce Parker yes are we already at 1. |
| 42:22 | 5 degrees look at the figures yep guys your screen yep uh um yes yeah okay I want this which one gets the [Music] whole one whole full screen there we hold the screen here good this one sure okay um there have been a lot of articles in the papers recently about 1.5 degrees I this one from Yale was pretty good actually totally wrong um it's the the the odds of keeping warming to 1. |
| 42:58 | 5 are dwindling fast sojust how fast is a matter of sharp debate well if we're already there 1.5 degrees that people this says people are not recognizing that we're already at 1.5 and they recognize when we're going to get there and I try I started off doing some analysis to say well how soon do I expect we'll get to 1. |
| 43:20 | 5 degrees and oops I can get this smaller um and I'm sure all of you heard the the uh climate reanalyzing websites got a whole data set on on the temperatures for the last uh since 1940 and what I did they just to start off with a simple little diagram uh this is the the temperature anomaly and right now we're about 1. |
| 43:46 | 46 degrees through November uh above you know pre-industrial and so most people think well that's not soon not we're not to 1.5 yet but in reality at the end of of this year the last day of 31st of December we're going to be at 1.95 degrees above pre-industrial because it's anomaly and average the whole thing out so just a fact just because we're 1.5 approaching 1. |
| 44:11 | 5 now doesn't mean we're in the danger zone and then if you look at what happens and this is we're in an elino year and if you look at what happens after an elino year the the second second year the temperature usually goes down about oh half by 0.15 degrees so we're looking right now if if 2024 is similar to the average um elino years uh will be at 1. |
| 44:41 | 88 degrees next year and then if you look beyond that it says okay after an elino year um uh I did a chart which says how fast do do things cool off uh we are probably not going to see another year below 1.5 degrees so we're already at 1.5 and I'm wondering whether we could do some take some sort of analysis like this and take it to a to a Michael man and someone who and Michael man had a had a chart the other day that says we'll probably hit hit to 1. |
| 45:16 | 5 degrees in mid 2030s and how we can get some influencer to say we're already for PL for for planning purpose we're already there uh that might really change discussion about what we need to do um I know they just quickly go go through it we're at we're at 1.46 yeah it's okay Bruce yeah yeah okay any any thoughts on this any comments does any does anyone have a connection yeah Robert you're muted Robert you're muted Bruce could you put in the chat the the website reference of where you got this data from um I have done a similar |
| 46:13 | calculation using data that I downloaded uh today from Noah and I get slightly different results I mean they're not dramatically different but they are different right which I've got in a spreadsheet which I can I can share with you yeah it's I'll I'll put it up here and then I'll uh where's my website here it's climate reanalyzer dorg and what they have uh took a little longer to they expected to get this since they just change their data sets I went into the comp the cernus website today and I couldn't get the |
| 46:50 | data out of cernus that was that was this current so for instance here is there I'll I'll put this in the chat here is their curve and you export the chart here you get you get the data okay so who who who is that who's who is this is the University of Maine this is not [Music] right I'll put that in the um chat from so that's where it goes you put that in there and you get the data and they've got all they've got all the world they've got um uh sea surface temperatures that be good all sort all |
| 47:30 | sorts of good stuff North Atlantic um can I can I share my screen with you just to show you what I what I came up with today because it's pretty straightforward it's and it it I think it shows this actually slightly more straightforwardly please yes yes it's you should be able to just go go ahead okay so this can you see that Now Yep this is this this is data come off the Noah website today and it goes back to 1850 and it comes up to uh November last month this long curve here you can see is that historic data the red the orange |
| 48:21 | bit the blue bit and this red bit is all historical data yeah the the orange and the the dotted one is is a moving average sort of thing do just to make it slightly simpler if I put this on the screen it kind of makes that whole thing easier so this whole this whole piece here yeah is historical data yeah but for but you'll see that um there are different periods so this period here from 1850 through to um about 19 70 has got a very different profile to that period and then to the most recent period yeah if I then get |
| 49:05 | rid of the the long history okay [Music] and just look at the more the most current piece this is from 1978 and you can see that this period here about 10 20 years it's kind of a straight line is this is the similar you got a an R squar here of 9595 for a period of 20 years but what I've done here is I have extrapolated the most recent 20 years so this is 2000 to 2023 data that I've extrapolated going forward now this line here the green line is an extrapolation using the exponential function and the yellow line |
| 49:57 | is uh coincidentally a logarithmic linear and quadratic extrapolation the difference between the three is insignificant so the one you're seeing is linear if I get rid of the linear you'll see um you'll see if I get rid of the and put the quadratic in you'll see that it's almost identical okay but the the green one so I'm not quite with you green one is is exponential yeah and the blue one looks like a straight line to me it is a straight line it's well actually that's quadratic okay but if I put the yellow |
| 50:33 | one up on top of it you'll see yellow one is co almost coincidental so the yellow one is linear and the blue one is quadratic and they make no difference okay logarithmic one in you'll see that that's almost identical as well three the extrapolations make no significant difference but the exponential one does make a big difference right except that that is so you've got it even an exponential one you're not hitting hitting 1. |
| 51:04 | 5 degrees to after 2030 we're there today well that's so the problem is is not the gra the graph is right but for graphing it but the problem was there's a huge jump in temperatures this year well and that's and that it's extrapolating from the past data is not is is not is not has makes no sense okay well it doesn't no question of making sense one one needs to make sense of the numbers so so what what what my graph does not do is it doesn't factor in the um rapid rise that as you say has been that is now emerging |
| 51:39 | from the what Hansen calls the great aerosol experiment so the change the change in aerosols in the last five years or so and particularly in the last two or three years is only now emerging in the temperature record so Hansen reckons that uh by by next Spring by May 24 he says he expects to see that the actual figures coming out at between 04 and6 degrees higher than the trend line so that's 04 to point6 higher than the line than my green line which puts it very close to where you're talking about so 2025 2024 we're here if you add on um |
| 52:25 | that's one if you add on 04 or 0.5 you're at 1.7 and and going up so yeah those figures are slightly lower than yours but they're not significantly different if you add on this aerosol correction but it again it does assume that the growth function is exponential uh and one needs to kind of justify that one can't just assume that that's the case uh and I'll leave that as a separate discussion but the point the point I wanted to make here is that these figures from Noah um broadly agree |
| 53:02 | with the figures that you are using subject to the inclusion of this aerosol jump yeah right yeah what I was trying to show though is that no this is a 20 2023 is be 1.5 degrees every year in the future is going to be warmer than this one already past 1.5 degrees and yet Jim Hansen everybody else is not Hansen Michael man and all these other people are saying we've got years to go and the question is is even even with Hansen saying wait till May I'm saying today you go to you go to somebody and say we're at one we're over 1.5 from now on |
| 53:41 | well there's a there's another Point here Bruce that is and that's a definitional point okay because the way in which the ipcc and I suspect Michael man and others uh declare um that we are at 1.5 is is basing it on a 30-year average with the current year in the middle of the range so they could argue that we're not yet at 1. |
| 54:07 | 5 because of course you've got all the last 15 years when you weren't there yeah but you tell the public I don't care what that says the the temperature shows we that we are at 1.5 from now on absolutely I agree with forget forget what the ipcc says you can show them that we're at 1. |
| 54:26 | 5 well yeah absolutely I think that I think the point you're making is absolutely agree I'm agreeing with you all I'm trying to do is really explain why others are saying it isn't the case is because they're they are describing something that is different they're using a different statistic right so it's not a case that they're saying oh we're not at 1. |
| 54:44 | 5 they're saying that the way they measure 1.5 we're not and they're measuring it wrong absolutely yes how and how do we how do we get how do we do we talk who do we talk to about that to say we're at5 it's you know this is this is the way the game's played I don't know the answer that question I mean it's a it's a real problem but that's the way they measure it that's the way the ipcc measures it yeah but that's in the public so they're misleading the public well that is not |
| 55:17 | the only detail in which they're misleading but but how how can how can people be measuring it different surely they should have agreed a standard for measuring the global temperature a long time ago decades ago right how can they be how can they be saying well we'll do our own it's a bit like the uh you know the the Consumer Price Index you know where they just changed are things at the the basket of you know items isn't it just we don't like the inflation it's a bit too high so just get rid of steaks and put |
| 55:48 | burgers in you know they can't do that with the temperature is that what they're doing or is something like that happening your Trend and you can't do that this is scientists being rational and balanced they're simply saying that we do this averaging to eliminate interannual variability okay it's very reasonable so it's the Aver yeah yeah I I've had that confirmed absolutely by um Doug um MC Martin when I asked him something he responded by saying that 1.5 was was long away because it |
| 56:24 | required 20 years with an average temperature above 1.5 before they would say it was officially reach we 1.5 degrees Centigrade that is absolutely ludicrous but that's that's how they put off uh the accusation that they they failed okay so that's what it is sorry if I missed that it's the the the moving average they've just changed the length of time over which it's average as simple as that right yeah if you move average over 30 Years it'll take another 10 years to get there yeah well but |
| 57:03 | linear inflection point but if if you have a linear inflection point a moving average is not the way to measure stuff well there's a lot of lities that these people take with with mathematics and that's only one of them right figures don't lie liar figure exactly lies figure damn lies and stati mes yeah yeah making Bruce is absolutely right you know we are absolutely there um and um it isn't the situ the the uh the future doesn't look any cooler than 2023 um and the fact that the ipcc and a |
| 57:44 | number of leading scientists are saying that that is not the case is merely because they're defining these figures differently they're using maybe what we maybe what I will do I will polish this a little bit more I will sent it to Yale climate connections and saying here here is the article which you sent out on this and and look and and this so and maybe just just start sending it around um with analysis that says hey we're we're already there how about starting to talk about we're already there and |
| 58:13 | maybe we can get the ground so of support of people understanding that and maybe that'll change things maybe yes yeah pleas yeah please if you think it You' got the time to do it Bruce please yeah please do so what I'm still wondering about so I want to mention your um article Robert with um I'll just quickly show everybody did everyone see this because this is fantastic uh Robert after we've talked about getting in published oh gosh look at that um the conversation um this is it was actually list Ed today |
| 58:56 | uh I saw it there uh the disagreement between two climate scientists that will decide our future and look who wrote it Robert Chris and Hugh hunt and that's and that's in the the conversation so um lovely very nice article here talking about the disagreement yeah also nice for off the conversation too yeah please yeah um what I did you see my answer I'm not sure forgive me if I wasn't the right time to say it um Robert um well I read the thing from the latest one from Hansen quite a longer one where he said uh a a miracle will |
| 59:38 | occur is not the best way to manage climate policy um we just we just assume A Mir a miracle will occur um but he said towards the end that he said well you know we'll find out who's right about the temperature next year because it's going to be very high and Michael May will find out that he's wrong but if Michael man is measuring it over 30 years he's going to say no no no no no it's still only you know bit bit more than one yeah you just call it an anomaly the the reason that the this was |
| 1:00:07 | put in that way the way the reason I wrote it that way is because I was not starting from the science okay I was starting from the policymaking and I was asking myself how are policy makers going to cope with on the one hand Michael man's saying black is white and on the other hand Michael man saying no no no no black is black when you've got these two guys who are both very highly regarded saying something that is completely and utterly uh in opposition to each other hang did you mean that both Michael Manis says black is white |
| 1:00:42 | and Michael man says Black is Black or did you mean Jim Hansen says black is white sorry I do apologize yeah one saying one thing and one the other one saying other yeah yeah keep going and the positions are irreconcilable I mean they are absolutely tot opposites so the point I was trying to get at there was that if you are a policy maker and you're not a scientists and you're relying on Expert advice to reach policy conclusions for the benefit of your communities how are you going to uh how are you going to |
| 1:01:15 | reconcile these two leading scientists opposing positions you're going to struggle and whilst they are still arguing amongst themselves you're going to sit on your hands when they s out when they tell me what the story is because it can't be both then I will act so the point I was trying to get to here is that there needs to be a Reconciliation on you know we need to come down on one side of the other because policy Mak policy makers need to un need the certainty or at least a high degree of of of probability that one of |
| 1:01:49 | these stories is is the right story and the other story is the wrong story and whilst they're at loggerheads and particular whilst I mean we're all kind of on the Hansen's side but whilst there is a whole Army of people out there on the on the man's side we are we're GNA struggle to move forward on this whole argument that about about um solar radiation management because they're going to say you don't need solar radiation management because Michael man says it's not necessary the water the problem of The |
| 1:02:20 | two scientists you're talking about Hansen has a far stronger academic history than Michael man ever did Michael man did his hockey stick and got a load of publicity and got sued and and he got his name from that but he has nothing like the background experience of James Hansen that is true but he does have he he is a goto climate scientists for a lot of policy makers whether whether we whether we regard him highly or not he is nevertheless out there he has a voice yeah yeah Bruce finish your point please no |
| 1:02:55 | said I mean we should we should point out the quality of the voice if we're going to say our experts better than your expert you know in my in my original in my original drafting of uh this article um which actually was to be honest it was fashioned on the thing that I wrote for this group way back when when I when I did my critique of of um Michael man's critique of of Hansen's pipeline article and that was what was originally sent to the conversation and they said well this is a bit this is a bit too sort of nerdy |
| 1:03:22 | and Technical so this new one kind of emerg from that but um in the when I redrafted it I I actually used something very similar to what you just said Bru and I talked about Michael man engaging in a pissing contest you know because my my facts are bigger than your facts and in the writing of it I put a hyperlink under pissing contest to the Wikipedia entry excellent unfortunately this was a nice little detail that got excised in the editing process no surprise there then yeah Ura please that's what it amounts to it amounts to |
| 1:04:02 | you know who's you know my facts are bigger than than your facts my my truth is is trer than your truth well what I fear is that the fossil fuel interest will say well we much prefer Michael man's answer so we'll fund him we'll and then we'll defund you know we'll we'll throw lots of mud at at Jim Hansen yeah yeah Ursula please I was just about to say exactly the same thing it's human nature surely for the policym because to default to the most optimistic position which is man's position um just what |
| 1:04:30 | you're just saying now yeah Sor I stole your thunder yeah no absolutely and we've seen it before with lindsen you know Jim Hanson talks about in his storms book How The the same thing going back yeah John John McDonald it's a some way of getting these two guys to to have a public debate bring this out in the open will they will they talk to each other in a public forum or or or or if not if not something like a hypothetic or get a Jeffrey Robinson type hypothetical going and got people like yourself Robert and and others were |
| 1:05:06 | on that panel I mean this this really needs to be debated openly is there some way of doing that do you think well Jim Hansen seems to think you know that the temperatures next year so perhaps we should could go back to Jim Hansen and say look you know you're confident that that you'll be right next year because of the temperatures but don't you realize that Michael man will just say well over 20 years it's still only just a bit over one one degree and see what he says yeah we need to change |
| 1:05:34 | the way we Define 1.5 and say exactly you define it this way then this is the case would would Hansen I mean you you correspond with with Jim Hansen Robert would he respond to a thing like that I don't know he's he's um he's in a I I do correspond with him I wouldn't say that that uh uh yeah I mean I do correspond with him we've had quite a few emails going back and forth uh but he's a very he's a very feisty guy as those of you who had any dealings with him will know he's a very |
| 1:06:05 | feisty guy and he has a he he's under a lot of pressure uh and he's he's his early 80s for God's sake I mean he's not exactly a spring chicken um so he's done these things are challenging for him and I'll tell you something else I just learned which was very interesting in the in the conversations that I I've had with him or email email exchange I've had with him over the last couple of weeks a lot of it was um he was under pressure to complete the thing that the paper that he most recently put up on |
| 1:06:33 | his website because he was flying to Dubai the following day for cop 28 and he was booked to be in a panel discussion with Hugh hunt and Shan Fitzgerald and and the people from operation Artis and uh when I saw sha Fitzgerald in London on Monday the day before he flew out I said oh you what when's the date for this meeting he said ah Jim Hansen was on his way to cop 28 he stopped I think it was in Amsterdam and turned around and went home and I've just read the paper that he's got up on his website uh today and |
| 1:07:14 | he in the last couple of days at least and he says that he didn't go to cop 28 because he thinks it's a waste of time Y and you know so clearly form his own views on the ho because he wouldn't you know it's kind of a bit of a extreme thing to fly halfway to your buy and then change your mind about being there and turn around and go home you think he made that decision before he left you would wouldn't you wonder if something happened I don't know or if that's cover for someone said don't come activists at |
| 1:07:44 | cop 28 been having a very hard time and a lot of people have been shut down and they've been having their licenses and things revoked and told they can't go into various parts of it so so the activist um groups are really upset well I don't think they should be surprised by it it's goodbye for Christ's sake it's a exactly it's and Jim Hansen May well have been caught up in that I know so Jim Hansen turn around and went home my son lives in Dubai I've been there about a dozen times and um it's it's a you know it is |
| 1:08:18 | an extraordinary place an absolutely extraordinary place and not all good extraordinary yeah I mean yeah but there is no there's no Freedom there I mean it is a it is a police state it's ruled by an absolute ruler and it is ruled by an absolute ruler so um you know yeah the activists should not be the slightest bit surprised that they've been closed down that's the nature of the Beast I think the next one is in Baku aaban it's another um oil Rich Place known for its democracy and Liberal Liberal um |
| 1:08:52 | Politics as it not yes I mean I think it's another good democracy and it must be a good democracy because the leader always gets 98% of the vote yes that's right but but it's a tragedy that Hugh hunt and Sean and so on didn't meet up with yeah Jim because that that would have made made a headline wouldn't it it would have been really good had they actually physically met but I I I I will get back in touch with Jim Hansen in the next few days I've been I've been leaving it until the |
| 1:09:24 | end cop before I do that I want to get a debrief from Hugh and sha before I go back to um to Hansen I mean that I think that might make a a good headline might it h Hansen toughed out of cop 28 even before he got [Laughter] there yeah yeah but in a sense because he might have he might have said something about SRM there wanted to hear possibly what goes through my mind is um you know if it if it had been yet another cop where they make lots of wonderful promises and they agree that you know it's all going to be okay and |
| 1:10:09 | then obviously don't um that it would be worse than it is at the moment which is you know looking to be utter failure uh which makes a stronger case for the things we've been talking about brightening re brightening the planet well I think you know one needs to see this in the in the um in the round and it might well be that the best outcome is that the cop is a total failure because if it is a total failure it kind of blows open the whole kind of worms you know it just it just declares it to be a pointless |
| 1:10:46 | yeah and and maybe will provoke some alternative approach to addressing climate change yeah that's more honest for it to completely fail is a more honest outcome than this continual pretense as I've been saying yeah um okay um let's we want to um let's do these last two things I don't want to miss people so John um calculating longwave heat Escape we talked I you we talked a bit a bit about this at the beginning you know and Earth's energy budget calculating webly should have done this before but anyway we're doing |
| 1:11:22 | it now is there anything else you want to say about that John I think you obviously yes um got some things you want to say about it yeah I put a note in the um in the chat so uh in trying to understand the the delicate mechanics of what occurs uh underneath clouds at night and what occurs underneath an aerosol layer that we might put up the the mechanic of it is very uh complex and small changes could have large effects um the aerosol that you put up might U mix with other chemicals in the atmosphere become a |
| 1:12:07 | slightly different molecule which has slightly different vibrations and slightly different effects on upwelling infrared radiation so what I'm trying to do is back away from the trees and look at the forest the forest for rebrightening the planet has to be an overwhelming effect of sending back to space uh visible light and as much infrared as you can but the the trick to to using rebrightening is that we don't allow uh the the energy as much as possible to hit the surface or hit the clouds or hit the water and not be reflected back in |
| 1:12:49 | the visible spectrum um I mean to be and then to be ref reflected back because uh the idea of moving heat from one layer to the ocean to another has arguable secondary effects and different uh time calculations the the use of uh different types of aerosols um would have different effects we don't know how long they would last you know at the North Pole they would last let's say through the summer and through the winter which would mean they would trap some heat below them so by just backing up to from the and look at |
| 1:13:25 | the forest using the aerosols like the sulver it has to have such an overwhelming effect of reflecting uh essentially visible light and scattering some infrared upward uh during during uh the time that it can do that which is when the sun is hitting it uh that it's it has a net cooling effect because these infrared effects of clouds and Aerosoles at night or in the dark of winter are are significant but also very hard to calculate so I just wanted to point that out that uh rebrightening means rebrightening and all of the other |
| 1:14:02 | chemistry that we've been involved in that happens below Cloud layers and Below layers of the ocean is dealing with with the different a different thing than re brightening that's kind of my point yeah I mean I think there climate models um you these models that there there's been looks about like about I don't know maybe up to 10 papers on the effect of marine Cloud brightening you know or or at least going back 10 years put it like that you know Heywood and and um and and all kinds of people um calculating the |
| 1:14:36 | um the climate forcing uh the negative forcing and how much therefore How much cooling from Marine Cloud brightening brightening either you know lumpy like Doug Martin said in just the areas where there's a lot of Strat accumulus or you know Haze over a widespread area they've done these calculus they've used climate models that that that take all they supposed to take all this into account are you saying that these climate models we should sort of be a bit more skeptical about these models because they haven't they might not have |
| 1:15:05 | thought it through properly about the you know the the long wave getting trapped so forth a bit of that for sure and um the biggest uh debate we have right now is that it looks like when we try the uh s that it's uh the particles are going to linger for more than just the optimum season so so reflecting energy back to space has an Optimum season and that season is when the sun is hitting the aerosol uh if you go into the dark season your aerosol just like a cloud is creating a a warming effect below it so |
| 1:15:43 | um we have to get such a an overwhelmingly strong effect of reflection During the period of time that these these uh these solution can activate uh the Marine clouds are the same way under those Marine clouds there is a warming effect at night and if they're drifting to an area that has a Long Winter Darkness they will also be creating a warming effect in that area a net warming effect so just you know just wanted to back up a little bit and look at the bigger picture we've got to look for uh highly reflective uh devices that |
| 1:16:20 | can either be removed from their environment during the dark time times or their effect is just so overwhelmingly uh cool during the lighted times that it it washes out the warming that it creates yeah I absolutely agree uh one thing I learned this year was that the uh That clouds in the polar regions uh only provide a cooling effect for about for a small number of months like two sort of months is during the summer months the rest of the time they have an overall warming effect so putting clouds you know um and which made me wonder if if |
| 1:16:57 | there's I don't know this I mean the water vapor you know the warmer Seas um finding their way into the Arctic into the polar regions would make more water vapor in the air more clouds and so more warming so this is I thought this might be another uh amplification Arctic you know polar amplification effect I don't know I don't know anyway France please I only would say without any meth you can see if you have a clear night you became five degrees about about 5° celius a colder uh uh temperature at the |
| 1:17:39 | at the at the ground and if you have a have a a cloudy or a foggy KN it's rather warm you will have six degrees more yeah that's right yeah and so you you must make clouds during day and uh put them away during night try to get into rain out during the night yeah for instance yeah before night before night yeah yes okay thank you France uh Brian yes just wanted to confirm that some of the high latitude volcano research has confirmed a limited time scale to the stratospheric sulfates in the high latitudes uh in the range of 55 degrees |
| 1:18:36 | north to 70 degrees north and that limited time scale um implies that a u Springtime injection would in fact dissipate substantially uh By the time late Autumn occurred so uh there is some natural evidence for limited time scale for stratospheric aerosols in the high latitudes already based on the volcanic evidence okay thank you Brian yeah I I've put that same comment in my chat so that's what doug MC Martin is proposing for his subpolar injection uh it's based on the combination of the known fact of the |
| 1:19:28 | Brewer Dobson circulation takes uh takes the uh air out of the stratosphere uh as it as it goes spirals around gradually northwards and the observe observations from volcanoes there was one at 48 degrees conveniently uh which uh shows that it uh the bir of some circulation actually does work okay thank you uh John Brew yeah I just wanted to see if everybody had read the paper by Peter bunard and Rob dad others which i' I've just posted on the email to everyone uh as to how forests actively cool and transport uh |
| 1:20:21 | heat into the high atmosphere I think you'll find an interesting read so it it should be on everybody's email there okay thank you is it accessible is it readable highly okay that's great um Peter buard lives in Cornwall and has got a an in his garden experiment which is a tower about 30 40 feet high um where he demonstrates the the the sensible heat and the movement and how that vacuum is created and um heat is transported up into the upper upper atmosphere clever stuff mhm okay sensible heat being heat that you can |
| 1:21:02 | sense as I understand it or is that maybe now's not the time to get into that that's have a look at the paper all right discussion next time around okay great thank you very much bro uh John McDonald just just adding to the complexity that Jonathan's talking about with clouds is the other variable is there's a high level of variability in the reflectivity of clouds I mean depending on their density and their shape and their geographical location if the I mean some of those clouds in the background those tall Stacks in the |
| 1:21:35 | background that you've got their Brew there'd be a lot of lot of sunlight bouncing off the side of those and bouncing back down not bouncing up so not all the heat is is being reflected back into space so whereas if you've got a solid blanket of clouds very white on top obviously that's very effective so here is incredibly complex the whole subject yeah MH okay folks we have one more thing uh one more item John Nissen um so you wanted to declare that the cop um strategy has failed so John please yeah um I think our conclusion is |
| 1:22:16 | that um uh the the cop is is getting uh getting nowhere it's um they've set out with two uh one objective it seems as overriding objective with emissions reduction and they failed to do that uh even if they have got it had uh achieved that uh would it have stopped uh the uh global warming there's a lot of doubt about that so even what they were trying to do they uh might not have worked uh there's no good scientific evidence that it would have worked uh which I think is what old Jabba was was saying wasn't he the |
| 1:23:15 | sultan he's the head of cop 28 um uh so they uh I think they've just about failed to make a a declaration for reducing fossil fuels um uh so they failed failed in that score um and but what's more much more important was their original objective was to um to avoid dangerous anthropogenic global warming or climate change what this cup or or that was the orig that was the original terms of reference of this cup no unfccc it set up the ipcc that was that was the one of the things they were intended to do so they failed to do that |
| 1:24:14 | uh because now climate change is moving much faster uh than their models and much faster uh than they could achieve by their strategy of achieving Net Zero by 2050 which is going to fail Anyway by the looks of it so um it's it's a failure a complete anath failure on every possible score that you like to make uh the 1. |
| 1:24:53 | 5 that's broken by any sensible uh measurement okay so once again John are are you proposing uh right writing something to you know the convers some yeah I think I think he could could be followup to the conversation couldn't it to the conversation you know Hansen has Hansen has said know we we've got the result to this cooling yeah and man is still on the trying to pretend that the uh ipcc strategy uh is succeeding well I think he wouldn't say he's trying to pretend I think he genuinely thinks you know that isn't isn't that I mean we have to tr |
| 1:25:39 | don't we trust him that he we don't we don't accuse him of pretending say he is still supporting a a failing uh yeah he has a different view institution yeah and and you expect the members of the institution to fight tooth and nail to keep their institution going because that's their livelihood and their credibility so you you you expect to have loyal ipcc members defending uh to the last man their approach we can't actually expect them all to die which is one of the um supposed methods of getting a revolution |
| 1:26:24 | yeah successful Revolution you wait till all your opponents are dead but we can't do that no because we'll all be dead as well but um yeah I I don't I don't think we can expect by the ipcc to to do a U-turn um uh because their members will continue to fight so we've got to set up an alternative institution or get some influential governments or military organization like NATO the dra the N say this has to be done we'll do it and go ahead yeah um yeah mean I just want to point out that in um Jim Hansen's U |
| 1:27:14 | Miracle you know his last missive he said it towards the end he said um he has great respect for Michael man who's a great communicator of climate science but we will find out who is right you know he disagrees with about the temperature so any comments about uh about this from other people I mean like so mean so the um the re Brighton um website for example presumably it says you know it's gonna it's going to fail but John you're saying it h you can declare that it has failed I think I think we I think we've got grounds for |
| 1:27:48 | declaring that it has failed yeah so any comments please i't got anything else to say agreements who agrees with John so hands up who agrees with John it it has failed expect anything different exactly highly TR Trade Fair it's like a Trade Fair did you say it's a highly successful Trade Fair in the eyes of the yeah there more more hydrocarbon people there than anything else and they're having a great time thanks yeah right there's a there's a saying that I think would be very appropriate here and that is the the |
| 1:28:26 | track of our civilization is indistinguishable with a civilization that's on a path to self-termination it's indistinguishable with a civilization that's uh adopting a burn baby burn policy interestingly I I I read dared Diamond's book called uh how civilizations choose to succeed or fail and he's he's got 14 criteria uh and we could take all the boxes except for one there was one box where I think our civilization could uh might save itself well no all the others are mean we're doomed yeah that's what I'm saying well |
| 1:29:17 | all the others are doomed but there's there's one that there's one we got one sort of Saving Grace one of the boxes one out of 14 that's not that's a failing grade in my book but you know we're smart enough to extract all the fossil fuels out of the planet but we're not smart enough to stop extracting the fossil fuels out of the planet yeah so it's it's an intelligence test at a fundamental level at a societal level so we score about seven out of 100 or something like that I think one out of |
| 1:29:45 | 14 yeah seven out of 100 you're right something like that yeah yeah are you here we got here with us yeah Dubai International Airport on your way home on your way home well his home is Melbourne that's correctely so we've just we've just voted that cop 28 was a failure would you agree uh well no not really you've been brainwashed you or or tell us please you drank the Koolaid the general consensus is that what's going on inside the um the the the meeting rooms was um is is of decreasing importance because there was huge there |
| 1:30:38 | a lot of stuff outside of the main of the main C and we have to see what happens but um there was a huge amount of stuff on um on geoengineering and stratospheric overoles and SRM and and carbon ocean iron fation and there was I mean there there was too much too much to see there was there was too much going on but nothing nothing of course inside the main U uh the main negotiation chamber so all I can say is if compared with last year at Egypt where there was virtually nothing this year there was a huge amount so um |
| 1:31:22 | my feeling is that from a geoengineering point of view we're on we're on the right track well we're on a track but the main negotiation processes are not I totally agree very interesting thank you Jonathan you've got a hand up yeah thanks um yeah I I agree with with you that uh we can't declared a failure until some time has passed um I think that we have hit the turning point on uh SRM consideration and um I think we're going to see the the changes occur quickly uh hopefully I'll tell you what was |
| 1:32:03 | absolutely inspirational was the number of young people um talking not just one or two I'm talking 10 or 20 or 30 that were uh putting on sessions on SRM and on geoengineering not just attending them but organizing them never seen that before never seen that before in the Blue Zone in the green zone and in the town in cafes and I went to a cafe a dinner uh on um SRM youth I think was called SRM youth at a vegan cafe in town it wasn't in the Blue Zone it wasn't in the green zone it was just in a cafe in |
| 1:32:42 | town talking about SRM with about 20 young people there and these are across the world these are international representation or was organized it was organized by by a young woman from Brazil and another woman from I don't know whether you know her CL bottle um and ah look it was just blew me over um and know us old white male people we're out of the picture now we're out we're out of the picture I'm afraid we've got some good ideas that's the way it should be we'll be able to advise all these efforts |
| 1:33:25 | that's great but but the thing is yes we've got some good ideas and they want us to talk to them they want us so we we went along to the event and they were very happy that we were there and we were you know we weren't excluded at all but the point is we weren't organizing we weren't organizing they're organizing and that's a change to yeah that's a CA chain so I'm I'm I'm optimistic you know I I no at about halfast 5 this afternoon there's announcement saying that the the uh the |
| 1:33:59 | draft of the um of the cop um uh agreement was coming out and everybody went outside and I heard all the Boo and shouts and hisses and then we went to the Finland Pavilion and we had a few beers and stuff and all these young people talking about SRM and stuff we just they they didn't care less about the uh what was going on they just said well come on let's have a beer and let's keep on talking you know it's a it's a and then the um the president the ex president Grimson of of um Iceland attended an event and he said um |
| 1:34:38 | this wasn't in the cop it was outside again he said look um there's no point in waiting for the UN to to uh to get make this happen it won't happen um uh and in any case the UN only meet once a year and he and there was 40 or 50 people at this meeting and he said you guys you guys can meet every day if you lik don't wait for uh don't wait for once a year and and then he said if things don't happen it's because not because the UN has failed it's because you failed because now the UN is out of |
| 1:35:16 | it the UN has lost credibility just forget it get on with it do it yourself don't wait for the UN time is time has gone this is President Grimson from Iceland and he said three things one is that the the poles the three poles the Arctic the Antarctic and the glaciers Himalayan Glacier are under huge threat and they're not going to wait for the UN and he and then the second thing was the UN was dead and the third thing was that every day is another day and you guys if you don't do something today do |
| 1:35:50 | it tomorrow don't wait for the next C and you know that's pres gson that's president Grimson from Iceland so I I totally accept that the that this Dreadful uh deal but hasn't yet been signed off and who knows what will happen um it was interesting there was a lot of discussion about the um the the global South actually being quite happy with this deal because as far as they're concerned uh they're not going to get any support to go green their only way to to modernize to to expand their um uh you know to get to to |
| 1:36:33 | to move their Lifestyles up is using fossil fuels because it's too expensive for them they're not going they're not getting support from the West um so as far as I can tell the um the global South is going to say hey great let's stick with this uh no let got pH out fil Fu I think they seem to be happening that so it's a bit um yeah it's a bit Grim from the official point of view but outside of it I don't think it's Grim at all it's more stuff on on on SRM and on Ocean iron on |
| 1:37:10 | on o on Ocean carbon dioxide you know uh oh there we go okay said did you get any sense that the the whole unfc policy process might actually implode in the near future yes I did there was there was just so little interest it was interesting that Nick Bree who you may know I spent a lot of time with him he's got a he he writes for the ecologist and he's got a room in the uh in the in the in the Press office the media office the media office was half full because the media is not there they're not interested in previous years |
| 1:37:58 | the media the the Press been heaving and this is hle and then whenever there was an announcement saying that some big announcement was going to um take place normally what would happen is everyone would go out and and you know be clicking their cameras at at the president and whoever it was no they were they were doing their own interviews of other people and it was extraordinary in fact so just this evening when this announcement was made that this the the draft agreement was out there was an announcement on the on |
| 1:38:31 | the tanoy and everybody was just sitting down they didn't move anyway they said oh what's the point we'll hear we'll hear about it eventually and um no they just carried on doing their other things other interviews was just bizarre um you know it's like it's like be like standing outside um number 10 as Rishi sunak comes out the door and people turned out turned the other way um looking for somebody else it really was like that and maybe maybe that too will you've been you've been to Cops |
| 1:39:09 | before suggesting that this one was radically different your your feeling about this one is radically different from previous occasions yeah well one thing that was radically different was that the green zone the one which was open to all the public that's where it was all happening it was heaving with stuff and whereas the Blue Zone which you know people know you get your past to go into the Blue Zone they all a bit feeble um and um oh look I mean I don't know I I didn't see who it was who said it who |
| 1:39:44 | who was saying said we got to let's wait um wait for the wait wait wait a bit wait for the DTI settle I don't think that this agreement is the V and I think it's just a part of the jigel public so um um here with the SRM discussions broken down into MCB as well as SI mostly well it's interesting very good question um all of the events organized by the young people the youth were very exploratory because they are learning and so the um the uh SRM event there was a big SRM event yesterday um and it was there was quite |
| 1:40:34 | a lot of stuff on on people explaining what is SRM um and it just didn't get into detail at all um but I did a press conference yesterday and I'll send you the link um I don't know whether it's on YouTube yet but it was um uh with with a young young finish woman um uh who was just extraordinary uh explaining why it was that we should do uh we should research SRM and then um uh James Hansen joined by uh was a recording um and then my myself and I gave a sort of brief explanation about uh uh shat Erol and |
| 1:41:18 | Mar brightning um and then when it came to question time there was a guy whose name I forget um it'll come to me in a second from exitor who said he was absolutely appalled that we were even considering uh um geoengineering that we should we should stop and and and then Along Comes This 22y old finnished woman and she looks him in the eye and says how dare you tell me to destroy my future essentially and she starts getting a and she said look I'm I'm not here for fun I'm here because I care a hell of a |
| 1:41:57 | lot about my future anyway when she finished she got a round of applause and this guy from ex and this guy from exod walked out you know it's extraordinary you know and this is a you know a 22 year old woman standing up to a Dusty old blo from exor who claims to be a polar expert so I'm an expert you're not it was oh it was embarrassing actually sounds miraculous um good and uh well I'm I'm I'm very happy I'm very very glad I'm very glad to have come I was thinking oh God you know is this going to be just another |
| 1:42:45 | but there's just been so much happening I mean today there have been three events on Ocean on Ocean carbon capture sequestration yesterday there was another one the last night there was a an SRM event and there was I should stop talking but I'm a bit I'm a bit Buzzy about it I'm afraid that's good it's great to hear it Hugh it's sounds like a real sea change it's a sudden change and but the real problem is where next year because you know that the the venue for next year is aan and the general feeling is that |
| 1:43:20 | there would be big boycott of aaban because of all sorts of reasons and um but I just feel we okay maybe boycott the um well I don't know I just feel that the the momentum is now building up on Geo engineering it wouldn't surprise me at all if next year it ends up in the in the uh Helsinki in the well no that the negotiations end up actually in in formal negotiations on that SRM because um yeah anyway there we go look up I Ved into this I don't know what the agenda is it's such great news to you |
| 1:44:06 | that uh we're all sitting here after after the time it's we we're like you know we're sort of more than 10 minutes after the end of of our Noak call but it's just such this is the sort of news we've been waiting for for so long I think we're savoring it really if I could I I just want that the woman is probably the woman who gave the opening talk at the at the at the Artic finish Artic conference she's a young woman who gave a yeah yeah so if people are looking for name Anie Anie yeah yeah |
| 1:44:40 | yeah yeah she was fantastic it's great that you came in at the end of the meeting you probably had forgotten the fact that these meetings have moved an hour forward so I had well but but I wouldn't have been able to come in earlier because I was um arrived at the airport safe journey back to Melbourne in enjoy the rest of your um your sabatical yeah well I'm not really anyway there we go this is um well yeah this has been a a a very enjoyable I I wasn't expecting to buy I didn't know what to |
| 1:45:13 | think I I didn't have any expectations of Dubai but boy I don't think I want to live here well thank you very much for joining us Hugh um yeah uh you'll be join you're going to be uh operating from um Melbourne for a while how long were you going to be there back to Cambridge I'm I'm in Melbourne I'm in Melbourne now till um the new year and so seven I'm going to visit S in um in massan and uh I've got um who H else am I visiting I've got to visit um John's in Melbourne |
| 1:46:00 | L he's gonna take me to the uh to the Melbourne Club I think I was that on Thursday excellent I got Australia yeah we'll see you we'll see you up here in Queensland before long you looking forward to that exactly and I'm visit yeah exactly Brian I'm visiting Brian in in near Brisbane what is it the 10th of uh January or something I can't remember the exact date but I'll look at it my calendar very good excellent see you then so um oh look um yeah and I'll I'll send some links |
| 1:46:35 | when all the videos are out I'll send some links to the group and you can just make up your own mind um listen to some of these um events yes please sounds great we should invite some of those young people to this meeting and furthermore uh we should find out what online meetings they're doing and uh you know provide some of our experience to their their group yeah I I I think that's probably right they're um they are finding their way I think it's a it's a bit of a gentle process but I |
| 1:47:08 | totally agree um we have invited the opero Artis people on the 15th of March to do one of the Cambridge climate lecture series electric series events so if anyone's in the UK and feels like coming to hear them live in um in Cambridge that would be great otherwise we'll be live streaming it um we're trying to kind of recreate the buzz that there was in the um uh the um the Bor Rex uh event in um Helsinki which was in um September that Andy did that amazing thing for um Annie by the way was invited to the um the Finnish am |
| 1:47:56 | ambassador's residence uh just two or three weeks ago so she gave a presentation in the Finish ambassador's residence along with various dignitaries from London here's this 22y old giving that standing up in the Finish Ambassador residence talking about SRM and saying you know there's no there's no Hur thing is there's no 1. |
| 1:48:22 | 5 without climate intervention and that's what she said at this meeting at the Finish ambassador's residence why the hell does she do it and not Dusty old me well because she has impact and I don't she looks better than you you yeah that's is anyway look I'm a bit Buzzy at the moment I'm afraid I'm just gonna I have to calm down a bit okay well safe journey it's been wonderful Hugh thanks very much yeah thanks thanks you thanks you I think we're all going now are we so see you I'm happy to stay in chat if anyone |
| 1:49:03 | wants to chat I'm just sitting here waiting for a plane okay some people might want to stay behind they did last time actually and chatted away so all all those of you who who have done thank you very much goodbye we'll see you I'll see you again in um in a couple of weeks thanks for your input great thank you very much great thank you right I'm going to hit the the stop recording button so people can just uh speak make sure |