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As an outcome of a workshop following Hurricane Katrina this paper extends ideas submitted to the Royal Society Call for Submissions on geoengineering. The frequency and severity of hurricanes rise sharply if the surface temperature of the sea exceeds 26.5 C. This is because of our definition of hurricane categories rather than having anything to do with atmospheric physics. If we can pump warm water downwards to below the thermocline perhaps we can have gentle hurricanes. Designers of overtopping wave plant for energy generation want a high product of head and flow. But the head of water needed to overcome the density difference due to the temperature drop with depth in many hurricane breeding sites is often less than 200 mm. This means that we can use the horizontal movement of sea waves to move water through a wall of non-return valves into an enclosure with a down-tube reaching to the thermocline. The warm water from above will mix with cold, nutrientrich water, giving a mixture of an intermediate temperature which will rise until is reaches the level of the same density, from where it will spread sideways. If this layer is at 100 metres below the surface there will be enough daylight to allow the growth of phytoplankton. These are efficient carbon absorbers and the start of the marine food chain. Keywords: Climate change, wave-energy, nutrient pump, thermocline, hurricane suppression, phytoplankton, marine food chain.
1 Hurricanes carbon and fish A 20 GW Thermal 300-metre3/sec Wave-energised, Surge-mode Nutrient-pump for Removing Atmospheric Carbon dioxide, Increasing Fish Stocks and Suppressing Hurricanes. 1/1/23 11/28/23
Summary ? Climate risks are cascading, non-linear and underestimated. Tipping points are happening faster than forecast; some have already occurred at less than the current 1.2°C of warming. ? To provide maximum protection for the places and peoples we care about requires returning to a climate similar to the relatively stable Holocene conditions of the last 9000 years when carbon dioxide (CO2 ) levels did not exceed 280 parts per million prior to 1900. ? A “three levers” approach — “reduce, remove and repair” is required: ? Reducing emissions to zero at emergency speed; ? Removing carbon by drawdown to return atmospheric conditions to the Holocene zone; and ? Urgent research to identify safe interventions that protect and repair vital systems and, in the shorter term, aim to prevent warming reaching a level that triggers a cascade of calamitous tipping points that are irreversible on human timescales. ? The harsh reality is that the first two levers alone — zero emissions and drawdown — are not sufficient to stop the Earth system charging passing 1.5°C within the next decade (nor 2°C in all likelihood), regardless of the emissions path. ? Even as the world moves to zero emissions, and CO2 levels start to decrease by natural processes and by CO2 removal, albedo modification for a limited period can flatten the level of peak warming — and perhaps help avoid existential climate impacts and extreme damage — until the other processes fully kick in.
2 breakthroughonline.org.au... Accelerating climate disruption and the strategy to reduce, remove and repair 8/1/23 11/5/23
Abstract. A simple heuristic model is described to assess the potential for increasing solar reflection by augmenting the aerosol population below marine low clouds, which nominally leads to increased cloud droplet concentration and albedo. The model estimates the collective impact of many point source particle sprayers, each of which generates a plume of injected particles that affects clouds over a limited area. A look-up table derived from simulations of an explicit aerosol activation scheme is used to derive cloud droplet concentration as a function of the sub-cloud aerosol size distribution and updraft speed, and a modified version of Twomey’s formulation is used to estimate radiative forcing. Plume overlap is accounted for using a Poisson distribution, assuming idealized elongated cuboid plumes that have a length driven by aerosol lifetime and wind speed, a width consistent with satellite observations of ship track broadening, and a depth equal to an assumed boundary layer depth. The model is found to perform favorably against estimates of brightening from large eddy simulation studies that explicitly model cloud responses to aerosol injections over a range of conditions. Although the heuristic model does not account for cloud condensate or coverage adjustments to aerosol, in most realistic ambient remote marine conditions these tend to augment the Twomey effect in the large eddy simulations, with the result being a modest underprediction of brightening in the heuristic model
3 acp.copernicus.org/articl... Assessing the potential efficacy of marine cloud brightening for cooling Earth using a simple heuristic model 10/1/21 11/20/23
4 myccnews.org/noac/documen... Cooling Return on Investment (CROI) - these slides demonstrate the energy infeasibility of DAC (by 2 orders of magnitude) 1/1/23 11/7/23
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, and Leon Simons Abstract. September 2023 smashed the prior global temperature record. Hand-wringing about the magnitude of the temperature jump in September is not inappropriate, but it is more important to investigate the role of aerosol climate forcing – which we chose to leave unmeasured – in global climate change. Global temperature during the current El Nino provides a potential indirect assessment of change of the aerosol forcing. Global temperature in the current El Nino, to date, implies a strong acceleration of global warming for which the most likely explanation is a decrease of human-made aerosols as a result of reductions in China and from ship emissions. The current El Nino will probably be weaker than the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos, making current warming even more significant. The current near-maximum solar irradiance adds a small amount to the major “forcing” mechanisms (GHGs, aerosols, and El Nino), but with no long-term effect. More important, the long dormant Southern Hemisphere polar amplification is probably coming into play.
5 columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailin... El Nino Fizzles. Planet Earth Sizzles. Why? 10/13/23 11/5/23
6 climategamechangers.org/w... Elsworth BFOF Recap (2018) 10/13/23
ABSTRACT As the most common phrase associated with the velocity and impact of climate change is now “faster than expected” it is immediately important that we as a species craft a response predicated on the most accurate assessment of this looming crisis as possible. To that end, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the United Nations in 1988 with the purpose of being a global leader on evaluating both present and future climate conditions and to serve as a universal resource for policymakers. Unfortunately, it has become apparent that there exists a gap between the realities of our world and the assessment reports provided by the IPCC. This paper will ascertain whether the IPCC can be trusted as the preeminent global climate change information and policy recommendation outlet while testing the argument that the IPCC has been instrumental in perpetuating a narrative downplaying climate change. The primary research method is pluralistic as well as observational, conducting a comprehensive literature review on the theme and making it being dualistically issue-specific: a) the methodology employed by the IPCC to analyze and present data and b) the implications of said methodology on empirical policy examples which we can use to benchmark the utility of IPCC data. Ultimately, we have found that there exists a schism in the IPCC between scientists and the economists who have, since the IPCC’s inception, dominated the narratives provided to policymakers and dramatically underrepresented the true speed and concomitant implications of climate change.
7 myccnews.org/noac/documen... FASTER THAN EXPECTED: THE IPCC’S ROLE IN EXACERBATING CLIMATE CHANGE 1/1/22 11/8/23
8 Fiztopv12 Fiztop design & op'n (2018) 11/28/23
9 new.uarctic.org/media/to0... FROZEN ARCTIC: Compendium of interventions to slow down, halt, and reverse the effects of climate change in the Arctic and northern regions 7/1/23 11/5/23
James E. Hansen ABSTRACT Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fastfeedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2s) per W/m2 . Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era – including “slow” feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases – supports this ECS and implies that CO2 was about 300 ppm in the Pliocene and 400 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, thus exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today’s human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2 ) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today’s aerosols. Decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Under the current geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will likely pierce the 1.5°C ceiling in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming pumps up hydrologic extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) EastWest cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and 3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made “geo-transformation” of Earth’s climate. These changes will not happen with the current geopolitical approach, but current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.
10 arxiv.org/pdf/2212.04474.... Global warming in the pipeline 11/1/23 11/5/23
These guidance notes are intended to assist Lead Authors of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in the consistent treatment of uncertainties across all three Working Groups. These notes define a common approach and calibrated language that can be used broadly for developing expert judgments and for evaluating and communicating the degree of certainty in findings of the assessment process. These notes refine background material provided to support the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports 1,2,3; they represent the results of discussions at a Cross-Working Group Meeting on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties convened in July 2010. They also address key elements of the recommendations made by the 2010 independent review of the IPCC by the InterAcademy Council.4 Review Editors play an important role in ensuring consistent use of this calibrated language within each Working Group report. Each Working Group will supplement these notes with more specific guidance on particular issues consistent with the common approach given here.
11 ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploa... Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties 7/7/20 11/5/23
The drive for global temperature change is Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), the difference between the energy Earth receives from the Sun and energy Earth reflects and radiates back to space. We have good measurement of EEI today based on precise satellite data for change of reflected and emitted radiation calibrated by decadal ocean heat content change measured by deep-diving Argo floats. Interpretation of global temperature change and prediction of future temperature requires knowledge of the principal forcings that now affect EEI: human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) and atmospheric aerosols (fine airborne particles). Aerosol climate forcing is not being measured, but information on aerosol forcing can be extracted from an ongoing “great inadvertent aerosol experiment” as a result of discrete changes in International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations on the sulfur content of ship fuels. These limited assessment tools are threatened by the absence of firm plans to continue direct EEI observations. A shortcoming of our climate science is failure to communicate well what is known from existing data. Global warming in the pipeline and emissions in the pipeline assure that the goal of the Paris Agreement – to keep global warming well below 2°C – is already dead, if policy is constrained only to emission reductions plus uncertain and unproven CO2 removal methods.
12 columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailin... How We Know that Global Warming is Accelerating and that the Goal of the Paris Agreement is Dead 11/10/23 11/11/23
13 oceaniron.org/wp-content/... Indian Mesocosm Experiment (2022) 10/13/23
There is clear scientific consensus that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) — alongside a strong prioritization of greenhouse gas emissions reduction — will be required at an immense, multi-gigatonne (Gt) annual scale by mid-century to limit warming to 1.5 or even 2°C.1 Covering 71% of the planet’s surface, the ocean has served as a critically important sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), absorbing over 25% of annual emissions.2 The ocean has also absorbed about 90% of the heat that has accumulated in the Earth system due to rising atmospheric CO2. 3 The ocean thus provides a vital climate mitigation function, but this has come at significant, and increasing, cost to ocean health, marine ecosystems, and biodiversity
14 21053102.fs1.hubspotuserc... Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal 1/1/24 1/27/24
15 wwwcdn.imo.org/localresou... Marine Geoengineering (2015) 10/13/23
Unless there is a large change in salinity the world’s oceans have a higher temperature at the surface than in deeper water. If a wind blows the warm surface to one side it will be replaced by cold water rising. The air over the warm area will rise and this will have to be replaced by air from somewhere colder so leading to self-perpetuating temperature differences across the ocean. These have large effects on the rates of evaporation and the flow of nutrients which can continue for months or a year or two. Water that has come from evaporation must come down somewhere so that there are floods as well as droughts on opposite sides. In the Pacific the cycling effect is called El Niño or La Niña Southern Oscillation abbreviated ENSO. In the Indian Ocean it is called the Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD. The map below is from Wikipedia. Sometimes the Pacific and Indian Ocean events get into phase and this led to the 2010 to 2011 floods in Queensland with strong droughts and fires on one side and floods on the other.
16 SSS_Notes on marine Cloud... Notes on marine Cloud Brightening 1/1/23 12/12/23
17 FiztopExperimentv4 PoC Experiment Design (2019) 11/28/23
This report presents key findings from a workshop on managing the contribution of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) and Climate Change to Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) that was hosted by Gideon Futerman and SJ Beard at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk on March 28th and 29th 2023. The workshop was informed by a participatory futures exercise using the ParEvo technique that explored futures for SRM and SRM governance between 2030 and 2050, which some workshop participants took part in. Initial results of the exercise were shared with workshop participants and full results will be published separately.
18 SRM_workshop_report_003 Report of a workshop on Managing the contribution of Solar Radiation Modification and Climate Change to Global Catastrophic Risk 7/1/23 12/12/23
Abstract. Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) is increasingly being discussed as a potential tool to reduce global and regional temperatures to buy time for conventional carbon mitigation measures to take effect. However, most simulations to date assume SRM as an additive component to the climate change toolbox, without any physical coupling between mitigation and SRM. In this study we analyse one aspect of this coupling: How renewable energy (RE) capacity, and therefore decarbonization rates, may be affected under SRM deployment by modification of photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) production potential. Simulated 1-hour output from the Earth System Model CNRM-ESM2-1 for scenario-based experiments are used for the assessment. We find that by the end of the century, most regions experience an increased number of low PV and CSP energy weeks per year under SAI (Stratospheric Aerosol Injections) compared to the moderately ambitiously mitigated scenario SSP245. Compared to the unmitigated SSP585 scenario, while the increase in low energy weeks is still dominant, some areas see fewer low PV or CSP energy weeks under SAI. A substantial part of the decrease in potential with SAI compared to the SSP-scenarios is compensated by optically thinner upper tropospheric clouds under SAI. Our study suggests that using SAI to reduce high-end global warming to moderate global warming could pose increased challenges for meeting energy demand with solar renewable resources.
19 egusphere.copernicus.org/... Solar Radiation Modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy 10/16/23 11/5/23
20 dspace.cvut.cz/bitstream/... The Potential of Liquefied Oxygen Storage for Flexible Oxygen-Pressure Swing Adsorption Unit 10/1/21 11/5/23
21 etcgroup.org/sites/etcgro... THE SEAWEED DELUSION - Industrial seaweed will not cool the climate or save nature 9/20/23 11/5/23
Summary ? The Australian Government received its first climate and security risk assessment, carried out by the Office of National Intelligence (ONI), in late 2022. ? The assessment should inform policymakers and the public on the greatest threat to Australians’ future, but the government has refused to release a declassified version. ? The ONI report is likely to have said that the world is dangerously off track to meet the Paris Agreement goals, the risks are compounding and the impacts will be devastating in the coming decades. ? In the Asia-Pacific region, states will fail and climate impacts will drive political instability, greater national insecurity and forced migration, and fuel conflict. ? There will likely be a further retreat to authoritarian and hyper-nationalist politics, the diminution of instruments of regional cooperation, and increased risks of regional conflict, including over shared water resources from the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, encompassing India, Pakistan, China and south-east Asian nations.
22 breakthroughonline.org.au... What does Australia’s first climate and security risk assessment say? 8/1/23 11/5/23