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| 00:00 | foreign could you say that again and your business I'll be right back hi Robert yeah what's the time uh down there all right oh my gosh I'm on some medication that's um stopped me stopped me from sleeping |
| 01:04 | so I've been up for a couple of hours but it's uh We've we've got uh unseasonably warm weather it was um yesterday we got up to 28 degrees Celsius so for the middle of uh winter well no it's not the middle of winter it's early spring um so except spring starts in September for us all right yeah uh the the spring flat we usually uh for us spring starts on the 1st of September and um the uh which is uh we call it what holiday because the uh I don't know if uh the Australian akashes are a pest in |
| 01:51 | the UK but uh I I'm reading the uh The Day of the Triffids and it I I looked up uh a Wikipedia list of uh the pest species around the world and the Australian wattle was number one on this list which was remarkable but um but the the reason I mention it is that uh wattle day is usually the 1st of September but this year the uh the main waffles um flower in um mid-august about three weeks early yeah so so we're seeing lots of these signs of climate change in uh in the the shift of the seasons and uh I I grew up we have |
| 02:37 | an Australian plant called the choco I don't know if you you have Choco's in the UK um but uh absolutely delicious solo much reviled and um so I I plant I I grew a Chaka uh it's it's like it's about this big a green fleshy plant uh seed uh seed pod and I grew it indoors through the winter and then I thought oh well it's it's warm enough now I'll put it out and the foot and we will let Frost and it just killed it okay what they usually say to us not to not to plant tomatoes until November |
| 03:16 | but that that's that's the old guidance from the 1960s and these days you can easily get away with with planting tomatoes in September although with climate being in such chaos here's to know you know we're going to get some random um polar winds uh that will uh you know give us a late Frost that that's what happened to us last year so I have a a mulberry tree and and there was a a late Frost that that killed off all my mulberries um before they before they'd set fruit so you know we've got lots of uh climate |
| 03:53 | change in the garden are you have you got the Antarctic polar vortex you know we've got this undulating North Pole of Vortex if you've got the same sort of thing down there it's similar but uh the uh what we have for Australia is that uh some uh there's the Southern Ocean separates Australia from uh from Antarctica and you know we've been gradually moving towards Asia at about an inch per year um however the last 35 million years yeah and um so uh what we so we we regularly gets um southerly fronts uh coming up from |
| 04:33 | Antarctica like that's a a usual feature yeah yeah but but sometimes uh what what's been happening more is that um you know how uh hurricane like there's a hurricane that's hitting New England in in the US at the moment which is very unusual at this time of year uh so far north and uh so what happens is that climate change is causing um uh low pressure systems to move closer to the poles and and when that happens for us um a low pressure system moves down towards the Southern Ocean and that creates a direct line of wind from the |
| 05:19 | South Pole to Australia and uh and we get a cold snap and so we've had more severe cold snaps in recent years as a result of essentially the southern equivalent of the rosby wave disruption that that has affected the the Northern Jet Stream that's that's my understanding but uh yeah it's uh it's been fascinating to watch how the uh the weather maps have uh just changed considerably like weather maps used to be quite stable in the 1970s and these days they're just all over the place you know the ice picture that we get on |
| 05:59 | the on the TV uh weather report yeah yeah especially those um those sort of blocking things there's um these atmospheric rivers and yeah I mean I'm not an expert but yeah yes um okay well it's uh time to start everybody welcome everyone um thank you Robert um and um so let's just see who we've got uh okay the usual people and I saw someone called Alex Porter um yeah I was on your last meeting um oh yeah Anton yeah I remember now Alex yeah thank you very much yeah okay right so welcome everyone |
| 06:50 | amazing how quickly it comes around isn't it um what do we want to talk about today and I'd suggest the climate over Commission report yep of course I've just sent an email about that and uh including two press reports from the times in the guardian okay I don't think I've seen that yet but I just ended up you know that you'll tell us all about it um okay so uh right so okay so uh overshoot commission but uh let me shoot commissions those but uh reports right um okay um I've got a uh so uh you might have seen my email at a |
| 07:52 | center earlier on about um uh cooling the slow latitudes so I had two questions really cooling the cooling the low latitudes to cool the high latitudes and wondering if Steven's got an update actually I think I'm mostly interested in uh it's a client uh on the it's very compelling when you say Stephen um that you could stop the ice I think and I can't remember what the details are and I'm sure you've sent it to us somewhere but just a quick update um stop the ice melting for the less |
| 08:29 | than the pro the cost of the security budget at these cop events so um um what is the except what how can I say um the cop 26 security estimate was 250 million pounds right you couldn't shoot a bullet without hitting several policemen they're all lined up so close yeah right so so this is cost of uh so let me just say MCB so it's this to stop the ice melting or what is what is that well the calculation was done a long time ago when there was a price and I had the the rate of melting of the ice which was 250 |
| 09:16 | 000 tons a second all right so when was it was it about 2020 or three or 2017 when was it that was done in uh 20 2012 I think 2012 okay so 2012. uh it was uh tons a second there's less now because it looks so much of it's melted and uh if you know if you know uh is that if you believe that number and you know it is the latent heat device you can see how much latent heat is going into melting you then have to assume that the other sources of heat coming into the Arctic haven't changed now maybe they |
| 09:55 | have changed but if they haven't changed then you've got a a number for the reduction in the Solar input that's coming in so let's come back let's come back to it when we get to it on the agenda and see if there's other agenda points first that's right thank you I thought you were asking me to tell you about it well I do but I do want to uh you to tell me about it but um I just want to write down the agenda item first Stephen and then we'll have longer to for you to say more about it I |
| 10:25 | definitely want to hear about it and so I'm writing down also how to calculate uh the energy would I say reflection needed well the unreflection needed yeah yeah the extra reflection it's a very easy calculation right well that's that's good news yeah okay so put that back a bit a little bit smaller thank you ask that be ground look forward to that um anything else folks we're doing the agenda right now writing out the agenda it's always tempting to get straight into it and it's very interesting |
| 11:12 | is there an argument to replace Cloud forming aerosols in place of the sulfur aerosols you can bunker fuels which were banned for health reasons and pollution reasons but but if the principle of using aerosols is is a good one still performing clouds in a more benign aerosol is there an argument to just equally replace that aspect of the platforming aerosols with with a benign aerosol shall I say yes with an alternative which is not not all aerosols are bad I mean that's that's the important all you need to do |
| 11:50 | is to put sulfur into the exhaust emissions of a convention yes that's that's right of a ship yeah um or your aerosols as well there's plenty of it and it's already there yeah well yeah yeah it's the exact same thing that phytoplankton well they make dimethyl sulfide which ends up as well yeah it goes becomes South dark side and then sulfuric acid and does a great job of nucleating clouds but the IMO decided to get rid of that get the ships have been doing the very exact same thing well well plus |
| 12:31 | other stuff of course um unburnt hydrocarbons but they they wanted the sulfur removed so we've now got oceans warming faster so yeah um yeah so they could just put it back again but they've now got low sulfur fuel fuels I'm not sure if Chris Vivian said he wouldn't be able to make it this time hi now before we go any further but I've just just seen you uh yeah reminded me it wouldn't have to be you but I just thought you might someone said do are there minutes from these meetings and I |
| 13:08 | said no I used to write out a sort of very quick summary who how do you feel about writing a quick summary of these meetings Ursula or anybody yes I I just wouldn't feel confident doing that because I'm not right now there's absolutely nothing enough all there is right now hahaha that's probably enough of an agenda but if you if you stop sharing then you can see that uh somebody has uh has uh has joined the meeting has joined with a um a bot which uh does write minutes uh the fireflies yeah John uh that's right |
| 13:47 | Brian does that so okay I suppose and uh I I just I would just like the flag as a question of process uh that uh you understand that this fireflies Note Taker is uh generating a um a transcript of uh of the meeting and uh I think it would be a courtesy to uh to share that uh transcript with those who attend the meeting well I've clicked on it in the past and then it wants all kinds of things like login as this or that and uh I find I find it quite um discourteous that uh you essentially we have a spy in the meeting yeah that is uh recording |
| 14:31 | without permission except that you've allowed you you as the as the meeting organizer have allowed this fireflies Note Taker to uh to attend with no accountability well it's Brian who puts that in Brian well this one's called Rebecca so I assume it's it's I don't even say I can't even see it um if I look on participants maybe it's there and I just note also we've got Sean and Hugh here which is is uh nice to see them they've just joined today yeah hello hi yeah so so can I just suggest if |
| 15:10 | people are not comfortable with the notes or rather if everyone is not comfortable there is one person that's not comfortable with the notes then uh it's probably um probably right process to therefore not for those not for those not nodes not to be taken Robert well does anyone object to fireflies notes being taken I I would just like to to have them make available to all the participants okay that's as we suggest as a transcript okay and Robert is was about to say something oh look I I agree with John and but like |
| 15:53 | I've had a practice of when I've convened meetings the note has appeared that I'm not aware of who it is and they haven't uh the person who's responsible for it hasn't had the courtesy to uh to make any communication I've just booted them from the meeting but uh I I think that it's something that's come up just this year as part of this whole AI Revolution that we've got and uh processes around it are worth clarifying okay um I think I did look at it once and I thought gosh this is all very long it's |
| 16:27 | easier to watch the actual video um but um uh but if you if it's useful if it's people think it might be useful one person thinks it might be might be useful I'm happy to well so this is a transcript itself yeah so I only have one question I mean I have no problem with it um AI is certainly moving into different Realms including medicine um but the only question I have is has anyone been able to verify the quality of it like is it pretty good in its of I I was quite impressed to be to be honest um given the the you know the way these |
| 17:10 | conversations go uh yeah I thought it was better nothing yeah yeah I mean it can I could put it as a attached it'll be a big text file a huge text file well quite big and I'll just attach it as a it's not going to be in the email um body so I'll attach it as a text file or a word file or something so all right why is this unnecessary um I watched the video from two weeks ago this morning yep so complete transcript right there on YouTube oh so YouTube does it anyway okay and by the way the fireflies is |
| 17:45 | excellent I've I've seen that it yeah excellent do you think one's better than the other well I think they're different uh the fireflies actually keeps track of who's who it recognizes your voice and says oh that's Clive yeah okay number one and it may call Stephen number two but it keeps track of who said what all right so it gives you a number kind of thing so all right so okay given that YouTube provides a transcript so any further comments do you still want to see fireflies attached it's not a big |
| 18:22 | deal let's not spend too much longer on this I don't mind just getting over what I have to get over to to capture it and put it in a text document and just attach it so um so if I wasn't to do let's just see what to ask the other way so if I don't do that and just say look you just just look at the YouTube transcript would anybody have to say no no I would like to see the fireflies put that in as well who's in that category so maybe the YouTube transcript is going to be enough that's one less thing for |
| 18:56 | me to do the YouTube transcript was going to be enough I mean currently it's in there from Rebecca the um the fireflies one would would be useful because you could if you was wanted to search for a topic which was discussed you could just do a text search you can't do that with a YouTube YouTube you'd have to kind of paste it okay John yeah you can do that with YouTube you can't take the transcript you can get it it's a text file and you can and you can have a textbook from the thread YouTube |
| 19:34 | transcript you can search that I mean I feel like yeah who's who's got the noise okay he's done it until yep thank you uh okay yeah John what was that you were saying John so well if somebody would do it for us yeah to uh paste it from YouTube this is YouTube yeah so it's got the time stamps on there tell you what I'll do it um from fireflies and I might decline in future if it takes too long so that's uh so that's that then uh okay so anything any other suggestions um it's a rare treat to see both Sean |
| 20:30 | and Hugh you're you're back to work and but yeah not with a Vengeance yet because you've you're not too tired great to hear an update is I suppose it's been summer time so nothing is it is there any news at all from Cambridge climate repair or whatever it's called these days we can always give an update but I'm Keen to stick to the agenda Clive okay well that would have been an agenda item right okay so um so this is three items this could be enough unless anyone else wants wants to |
| 21:05 | talk about something else okay I'd like to Clive uh I'd like to put on a cup 28 on the agenda just to find out if anybody is going or um has any plans or how to maximize our influence there I will be I have I just got got a pass for the first week there so I'll be going Sean and I will be going for the second week I think okay and I might be there for a bit of the first week as well okay either passed for the two weeks but uh how much of the first week I'll make I'm unclear okay we might be able to deal with this right |
| 21:46 | now actually herb is anyone else uh going to cop or got plans or wants to discuss cop 28 well they're going to be thousands of people there um in this group I mean yeah yeah but I mean I think what would be interesting is uh what things going on at cup uh ought me to be paying attention to okay it is I think it is worth a discussion yeah go let's let's leave it and talk about that then what's going on at cop okay then uh Robert please the overshoot commission report that you've just sent us all an |
| 22:21 | email about yeah thanks Clive um so uh I I simply wanted to uh to comment that um the uh the Strategic vision from the overshoot commission is uh is worth discussing because um they uh I've seen uh two press responses which is uh somebody noted uh very poor for such a distinguished uh report and and both those reports have been pretty grossly distorted the uh the uh Guardian report wrongly said that it called moratorium on efforts for geoengineering when it only called for a moratorium on deployment and said that |
| 23:11 | it it actually uh promoted efforts so that was just a gross Distortion uh political propaganda from the guardian which was disgraceful in my view uh but uh absolutely reflecting the appalling quality of the public climate debate and the Times report uh which Sean kindly shared with me it describes stratospheric aerosol injection as pollution and that was just mockery and of course there's a very legitimate room for uh debate around Sai but to headline it as as pollution is again just illustrates the appalling |
| 24:01 | quality of the public debate around geoengineering and the difficulty even of such a a distinguished group as the climate over overshoot Commission of uh of getting any serious and respectful uh dialogue and conversation about this topic which is just completely excluded from uh sensible policy debate as far as I can tell so that's that's all I wanted to say about it and I'd just welcome any other comments on it I I thought this uh the what they should have been doing uh was acknowledging that the uh tipping points |
| 24:45 | uh in the Arctic and uh and and that uh one the reason for the trying to keep below 1.5 was to avoid tipping points so they should be examining these different points as part of their should be part of their brief and if they and then they should come to realize that the strategy of Net Zero in 30 40 50 years or whatever uh it's just not going to deal with these tipping points and we have that they have to do Cooling and this is a and this is a very serious matter for young people today because they're going |
| 25:25 | to live through the consequences of bad decisions make made by groups like the uh like this overshoot Commission so I I think it's appalling but they they haven't done what they should be should be doing for the future of our young people they're absolutely appalling yeah thank you John thank you can I just respond to John yeah look I I agree with John but I think that what the overshoot commission has done is tried to produce a technical document that would enable engagement and so far they've they've failed in that but uh |
| 26:08 | the uh it seems that their tactic was uh to say oh let's have a moratorium on deployment but um on the condition that we uh agree to research and uh and part of the Tactical attitude has been that they've been swamped uh as I think I I read somewhere by our uh hostile attack on any discussion about GI engineering and so so they've tried to strike a balance between the sort of um a clear scientific advocacy that you're from you're calling for John and uh a uh a recognition that the political |
| 26:53 | conversation uh is just nowhere near uh accepting uh that sort of uh uh that sort of approach that's all uh um yeah thank you Robert thank you uh herb yeah I um I think that over issued commission uh both uh failed substantively I agree with John's comment and also uh failed in terms of their Outreach effort and their PR effort I mean they if you look at which I I've done and it's easy enough to do in about 10 seconds you just Google the report and most of the headlines are from climate journals or you know |
| 27:31 | climate newsletters they weren't able to reach most of the major media which is to me an an unforced era what they should have done uh any group would know to do this is to sit down and arrange one-on-one or group meetings with leading journalists around the time that the report was issued and a proactive PR strategy I mean they've had a whole year to develop this and and they've got pretty sophisticated people you know former Prime Ministers and foreign ministers and others on the commission who know how to do this or they wouldn't |
| 28:03 | have gotten elected or appointed to their positions and if you look at the headlines in in the media I mean whoops um I just lost it here risky geoengineering should be banned climate group says they're um uh uh here experts call for Global moratorium on efforts to geoengineer climate there scientists wary politicians want to research geoengineering expert panel warns warns dimming the sky is simply too risky to try and that's all that anybody's going to look at nobody's got to read the reports |
| 28:39 | um except for a few policy wonks and folks maybe like us so I think you know whether that was their intention uh or that was the inadvertent consequence you know who knows yeah but can I just ask herb um and Robert and people I haven't really read I haven't read it at all and I didn't really know this suddenly appeared you know in the in the emails overshoot commission you're saying it's it's got politicians as members that appointed politicians I don't really well you wanna just give me a quick |
| 29:12 | summary of what it is what it's supposed to be and yeah well the the pair a group called The Paris peace Forum uh which is headed by Pascal Lami who is a former as I understand somebody obviously correct me if I got some of these facts wrong uh who's literally the former director of the World Trade Organization got together a couple of years ago with some folks who were alarmed that the state of what's happening to the club climate and decided to or you know after Outreach to create an independent private unrelated |
| 29:44 | to government commission that focused on the goal of how do we minimize or avoid overshoot of the 1.5 degrees C goal and again it was all done privately uh they raised money wherever they raised it from foundations Etc and they um selected whoever they were presumably Mr Lammy and his colleagues there uh mostly sort of EX Prime Ministers and ex-foreign ministers who were out of office presumably because they would have more Independence to um you know say what what needs to be said without worrying about getting reelected or you |
| 30:22 | know if you're from a semi-authoritarian country you know um you know losing your life or your family loses your life you know one shouldn't kid about that uh you know as well as a couple sort of uh ex-environmental officials Etc so those are the 12 or 13 commission members they chose to um for whatever reason to not have any formal public input the entire year we at hpac attempted several times we get we did have Jesse Reynolds who many of you know he was their executive director until today um and he came to an hpac meeting back |
| 30:59 | in January I think Robert you were the one who were able to get him to speak we have that a video of that on our website if anybody's interested um but but basically they uh um they refuse to have any public input they jetted around the world every month or two to meet in Africa New York or Asia or whatever with their hand selected folks uh and then based upon some sort of uh you know sort of undercover semi-undercover reporting in a couple of the climate journals uh some months ago as Robert tulip alluded to |
| 31:34 | the story came out that they were under very heavy pressure to be anti-geo engineering and even lost apparently a grant because of that and that probably led as Robert said to this attempt at a sort of balancing act they lost a grant because of being anti-geo engineering or or there was the Grand idea because they were perceived as two pro Geo engineering as I understand it yeah and had a lot of pushback and as I understand it a number of the commission members didn't show up at the press conference in New York last Thursday |
| 32:09 | because because they thought was um the report was too Pro uh geoengineering even though the world headlines are let's have a moratorium and not do it because it's too risky uh so anyway the last thing I want to say is that um you know we're very fortunate um largely because of Mike McCracken who I think you all know to get Chris field hopefully you all saw that invitation Chris is going to be speaking at our hpac meeting uh on Thursday this week at 4 30 Eastern Daylight Time Chris is one of the three advisors to the commission |
| 32:45 | he was the co-chair of the panel that prepared the National Academy of Sciences report a couple years ago with the the research agenda proposed of a couple hundred million dollars for solo geoengineering so he's in you know eminently qualified guy and I think it should be a very you know how much he's willing to say about what went on behind the scenes you know uh is you know obviously questionable at a quote-unquote public meeting but um I urge everybody to um to attend that meeting if you have questions or if not |
| 33:18 | catch catch the video Mike will be uh moderating that that meeting I guess the last point I wanted to make is simply to tie that in with uh two other things that you know have come out recently one is uh as I sort of noticed I think I send it out maybe someone else did a couple weeks ago that a a group of uh 500 I think 500 African ngos issued a report at the time the same time as the African climate Summit uh the first week in September uh coming out again also adamantly uniformly unanimously against any form of geoengineering as you know |
| 33:54 | for all the same reasons and the same language that you often see in the in those activists who were opposed to it in the U.S and then as the note I just sent around that you commented on Clyde before this meeting uh the Human Rights Council of the un uh is meeting next week and they have a draft report that was circulated here a couple weeks ago that is also adamantly against any form of geoengineering as you know completely inconsistent with any any uh determination of Human Rights and uh there was a panel that the Ciel the |
| 34:31 | center for international environmental law which is a long time opponent put together um just this morning that was unanimous basically saying that anything that's not emission reductions is a distraction and uh dangerous so anyway my point is that if and until those of us who think and I think we all agree that some of these comments are very misguided could figure out a way to create an entity that has enough resources and and person power and money uh to push back against these distorted claims and anticipate |
| 35:07 | them to try to make them from not coming out to begin with you know we're constantly going to be on the defensive as one report after another comes down the line because that's a discussion for another time and I'll stop there okay thank you uh but yeah I mean we've we've discussed this many times before we thought that it was people was becoming more acceptable um but apparently not or maybe it's becoming more acceptable in places like Britain or you know the English-speaking world but but not you know places that |
| 35:37 | are less familiar with it I don't know I was going to say Chris Fields um uh he's a as you said advocate for solar geoengineering it always kind of irks me a bit because there's a big difference between doing things in the stratosphere and doing things in the troposphere brightening clouds in the troposphere it's still sort of a form of solar geoengineering it's Chris field and SAR you know stratospheric aerosol man or or both do you know I I will defer that to Thursday you come or others can ask them directly |
| 36:09 | come on Thursday and find out thank you very much uh herb who is next was it Robert listen so I missed the first 15 minutes or so so forgive me if I uh if I'm repeating we just talked about the agenda I think my mainly said but on this Overstreet committee report there are two options a bit quiet Robert you can't there's nothing you can do to speed up not too bad we'll get a bit closer or something it's just being British you get a bit closer to the microphone otherwise it's not too bad just keep |
| 36:40 | going I don't know why it should be there that's better like that that's better but um there are two observations I make first of all um one of the things that comes across in this report very clearly to me is a complete lack of urgency there is this sense that we've got all the time in the world the climate emergency is an emergency in name only uh it isn't seen as an existential threat at least not one that in any sense is imminent that requires us to move rapidly to action and this this |
| 37:12 | allows people to um to to drift into well yeah fine let's not do anything too risky anything too radical we've got time to look at the options we've got time to study we don't have to you know move to too basically so this lack of this lack of urgency I think is critical I suspect the reason that those of us amongst this group or many of us in this group probably have a greater sense of urgency is because we are perhaps better informed about the work of Lenten and Rostrum and the recent Armstrong mccarre paper and a |
| 37:47 | better a better sense of where these tipping points are and what the threats are from those and and perhaps a somewhat more nuanced sense of risk so the first thing is about the lack of urgency and the second thing the second point I want to make is that when you when you cut away the detail and just look at this the big picture here any any effective response to climate change and by that I mean any response that uh averts and a societal collapse a widespread societal collapse worldwide is going to require a societal overhaul |
| 38:29 | there ain't there ain't no there ain't no root through this that says it'll be more or less business as usual with a few tweaks here and there that is not going to happen for all sorts of reasons that we've discussed in recent times about the materials issues and about the nature of the transition from the viability the feasibility of the transition from fossil fuels to um uh to Renewables and the capacity for society to accommodate change at this scale and at this speed if we're going to deal with climate |
| 39:03 | change if you believe the threat to be truly urgent then we have to engage in societal overhaul and hey guys that's that's a big deal we don't want to go there politicians do not want to go there and not these guys are politicians so they've they've kind of sized up the issues when you say societal overhaul what kind of overhaul do you mean let's finish let me just what we have to confront uh all the way through this is a form of denial by those that declare themselves to be committed to to act and I'm not sure how |
| 39:39 | we break through that So when you say societal overhaul what do you mean by a societal overhaul briefly what do I mean by societal level well I think that um we're living in a period where the international liberal order that was established after the second world war is broadly collapsing we've got increased nationalism we've got uh increased economic stress throughout the world there's a very considerable increase inequality in the developed Nations you've got um political polarization uh you've got |
| 40:14 | a whole okay so there's a whole lot of problems but what's the overhaul the overhaul the uh the tradition of the overhaul was called the Communist Revolution but uh that's that's the sort of scale of change that that Robert's talking about but I think that that raises the whole uh further uh I just want to know what you mean by overhaul I'm not advocating uh I'm not advocating anything here I'm just pointing out the issues but it is quite clear to me at least and I'm not alone |
| 40:43 | in this that capitalism is in its end game at least in its current form capitalism has been a very protein uh economic model that it has changed dramatically over the last couple of hundred years and it may well have some more significant changes in it but certainly in its current form it's completely unsustainable and it has to change and it will not change happily but I'll put it that way because the forces that benefit from it don't want it to change yeah I think that might be the over kind of overhaul you |
| 41:15 | mean yeah so there's good so and that's and that's a problem because you the only way that you break through those things is either for the system to collapse and then to be rebuilt or a revolution and I don't see Revolution as being realistic on a global scale so the system is going to do what we've been referring to before that John was referring to before that you know all these bad decisions are being made and the system will collapse because that's what happens when bad decisions are |
| 41:41 | repeatedly made eventually it becomes irretrievable yep yep okay thank you Robert thank you very clear Sean yeah uh yeah yeah so um Clive I'm just going to share my screen if that's okay yeah uh yeah try now so I just want you to take a look at this if you haven't done so already I want you to think about what do you notice these are the people that were on the commission okay just take a look at them Pascal Lamy okay just look I mean look at it but look at the faces yeah then you can read their titles as well |
| 42:27 | okay they'd all be in place of DeVos right so my point is this yeah they've all got lots of experience where's the voice of the youth in terms of act I mean and actually you could even look at the look at the look around the table today as well you know we're all you know the wrong certainly the wrong side of 40 probably the wrong side of 50. |
| 42:55 | um and we need uh we need to be able to ensure that XP we don't just consult these young people but they're involved so uh the question mark I've got regarding therefore the overshoot commission is that where was this where was the oversight and the steering by actually well-informed young people as part of this because I think uh that has been missing and it certainly is um a real richness because we've found some people who are way way more more mature and um uh and sort of eager to push ahead on |
| 43:32 | furthering knowledge for the you know at that pace urgency to try and therefore see whether we can actually go and pave a different pathway and that that tone was missing the other thing I want to share with you I'm going to share my screen again uh just so that people know exactly what the order Clive you were asking what the uh what the report was I just want to show you the headlines as per their um as pervert uh report so this is what it is okay this is on their website these are the details of the report look at this |
| 44:08 | details cut emissions adapt remove and under explore what's the first thing you read the first thing you read under explore is a doctor moratorium that's the first thing you read and then and expand research and I've mentioned this to Robert tulip I've mentioned it to others the choice of words is one thing and the Order of the words is also really important when you're trying to communicate and when you know if you're trying to communicate a message we're all people we all have sort of limited |
| 44:43 | bandwidth which we're impatient and it's the first thing you'd see is a doctor moratorium or large solar radiation management whereas clearly it would read very different if you say watch the explore it would be expand research and governance before adopting um large-scale solar radiation modification it would say exactly the same thing the order would be very different yeah it would land very differently depending on the audience yeah so depending on what they who their pay masters were or who they who they |
| 45:12 | think they're trying to communicate with they've clearly chosen I Hope they've chosen rather than just writing some words down I think they've probably chosen their words quite carefully but I would have certainly uh I would have expressed it in a different way depending on the audience um and who my pay masters were her but in terms of who my audience was because I feel actually just starting by shouting by saying a moratorium you know it's a very strong word in itself and then starting with that anyway to say |
| 45:41 | that thou felt not go and deploy certain radiation modification just gets people excited about this whereas in fact what we should be saying is we've got to go and do this we've got to go and figure out we've got to go and figure out how to do this if and then sort out the governments uh before before we're going to do it and it may well transpire that we can't figure out how to do it and it's the worst idea ever but we've got to go and get this done in the next two or three years five at the outside right |
| 46:08 | to say actually this is how you can either deploy things you know with a meaningful answer anyway that's enough in terms of what I wanted to contribute to this thank you so an observation of what I see and this is Alexander yeah briefly you haven't had put your hand up so you're interrupting Alex but yeah get away with it it's very quick that's very quick um it just appears to me that there's a very sincere PR campaign that's out there that you're fighting against and my big question for this group is where |
| 46:37 | are the pr campaigns that you can that you can find that can support you yeah okay um good point thank you yeah and if you want to say more um do come back um so who's next John listen yep uh I was just saying I'm I'm not I don't think we need a uh a revolution of uh political um capitalism or anything like that we don't need a social thing all we need uh it is to put some and then hardly anybody would be affected by that but they would have the bizarre effect okay do you want to come back on that Robert |
| 47:24 | Chris you're muted if you have if you have something to say about it well I just think that you know this whole idea of a techno fix let's say you know just put some um some sulfur dioxide up in the stratosphere and all our problems are solved you know Humanity's been here before you know I'm not saying it can't help but it ain't going to solve the problem and also bear in mind that whenever we do these things that any kind of scale they create their own problems I mean there's a huge |
| 47:54 | literature literature on this on the consequences of large-scale uh technical uh interventions in the environment and Sni would be no different so there is no obvious way of just saying right we're just if we just do that one thing you know like Michael Mosley on his uh keep fixing the one thing you can do to solve this is it there isn't anything like that there is going to be no techno fix because the because behind all of this you still have the problem of how you we how eventually doesn't have to be |
| 48:28 | immediately but how eventually you transition away from fossil fuels to Renewables and you have all of the issues associated with that scale and that technology remember that uh and and those changes will not happen without some considerable reduction in energy consumption and the only way you can get reduction in energy consumption is by reducing uh the use of energy and reducing consumption and that means degrowth and degrowth uh creates a whole new economic structure that is going to be incompatible okay so so so what I'm I |
| 49:10 | think you're using the argument that the anti-geo engineering people saying that Geo engineering is a fix and it will it'll suffer all the problems of effects all fixes like this have failed in the past uh it's no good I mean that's that's the argument that the Antigo engineering people what I'm proposing is is not I'm not saying that is that let Robert answer that let me make my point about this uh well I'm suggesting is that we can have a two strategies in parallel so you can you don't have to fight the the |
| 49:54 | the the the the battle about CO2 reduction you you just let that happen and in parallel you have one that focuses on the short-term problem arising from tipping points and there is a fairly simple solution uh to that which involves freezing the Arctic which is quite a big uh ask but it uh okay that it can be done with Sai so the two in parallel yeah so quite safely yeah so the two in parallel would need to be done um so yep okay so my view is that I actually agree uh entirely with John Nissen on this point because what we need is not a political |
| 50:40 | revolution it's a scientific revolution and that we need to have a lot more conversation about the the whole Paradigm Shift literature as it relates to uh to climate change and uh but that we have an immediate emergency problem that we we're in a canoe which is about to tip over and so we have stop that happening through engineering while we have the longer term conversation about what is this paradigm shift that that we need in order to achieve a sustainable Global civilization and that is scientific political religious you know |
| 51:19 | there's a whole series of very complex dimensions and debate but you know just like get MCB happening get research happening on um on Sai like that's essentially what the overshoot commission has said in their ham-fisted way but uh yeah uh let's let's get the the conversation around the Scientific Revolution that that's involved with climate change happening that's all okay thank you Robert um herb did you have something else to say uh yeah I you know getting back to what I think what someone said that you |
| 52:00 | would think that a group with that mandate that they self-created would have spent more time and effort on making it clear how dire the situation is at the press conference that I watched on Thursday Oliver Morton who as some of you may know spoke with us at hpac a few months ago he asked a very direct question of Pascal Lama he basically said why are you not acknowledging that 1. |
| 52:26 | 5 is all but impossible at this point and the response as best as I could you know pick out who with his French accent and a poor connection was that number one because the ipcc says it's still possible even though I think you have to look at at a very few of those you know many hundreds and hundred scenarios to find one that doesn't lead to to overshoot and then coming back to 1. |
| 52:51 | 5 later this Century but then I thought even more telling was essentially he said we don't want to demotivate people in other words we're going to play amateur psychologists here and not tell the truth um because of what we think may happen it's not unlike the the same argument about moral hazard that well if we uh if we decide to do cooling oil companies may decide to do that and of course we're helpless to deal with anything the oil companies do anyway to me I mean but if he if they had acknowledged that the |
| 53:25 | commission acknowledged and that 1.5 is history and you know the recommend I mean the science is showing even though it's obviously only one year that we're likely over 50 chance of even meeting 1.5 or reaching 1.5 this very year then they would have it would have been much more difficult in an ideal world for them to call for a moratorium so it would to me the whole thing as with so many other entities relies upon the fact that people of All Sorts politically and scientifically are largely in denial about how how far gone |
| 53:59 | we are and how few the options for for you know restoring a safe climate yeah thank you yeah uh France yes I understand that people are against this Sai um because you can't stop it fast enough if if we see that there is a problem and I see there there is a problem they want to start for instance with five megatrons a sulfur in 35 and 30 years later they increase it must be increased to 25 amigatons software that means four times this |
| 55:05 | sulfuric acid which will come down and that means the uh dimming of the heaven becomes uh more and more Within These 30 years and what is up with me saying it it they only look for a CO2 but in my opinion they they don't understand what what that me saying would be a step to the removal would stop yes because now oh it's radicals and then can I just note that this is like it's a real like it's really good to hear from France but I would suggest that we not get into a debate about Sai versus MCB and other Technologies we |
| 56:08 | should move on to the other points on the agenda please uh uh France is very passionate about this he's very worried about it um yeah and um so I did want friends to have his say about it yeah just reassure plants that injection at 50 degrees north the uh SO2 has a limited lifetime of just a few months uh so you can't stop it and it won't accumulate year after year yeah I've been absolutely assured by the by the expert on this or the one of the top experts we know from uh Google that's that's low latitude Pinatubo with |
| 56:59 | low latitude and and the SO2 lasted for several years yeah but if you inject at a higher letter to the 50 or 60 North is being proposed uh the um uh Brew Dobson circulation ensures that it pulls the S active Force out of the atmosphere uh out of the stratosphere into the troposphere uh within a few months yeah okay so can we discuss this we've discussed this thank you John yeah yeah uh okay so it's a lot of announcements we're not going to be able to answer everything today I've got a a general sort of question |
| 57:40 | um to make it sort of broaden the whole thing um so I've there's this thing where everybody knows you know we we all assume that that um so and so when I say everybody the general public um so it's like one of those things you don't even question or obviously yes well I've heard that Geo engineering is bad we shouldn't have due engine of no idea what it is really but it's supposed to be oh it's gonna yeah it's gonna um you know it means the fossil fuel the evil people can carry on so we need to |
| 58:11 | not have during you know it's people don't have time to learn or for whatever reason they haven't so there's another thing for me that um so I'm that's what I'm thinking that that's what this is that most people don't really any overshoot commission for them to be saying oh yes well it's just and we don't want to uh frighten people or something just so you have no idea um of what's coming down the line um so uh because I was rather rather notice a rather deafening Silence about |
| 58:44 | so this is my own thing here you everybody knows everyone in this group knows that I'm uh um hoping and confident that advanced generation nuclear will be cheaper than fossil fuels and it'll be the best way to very gradually reduce CO2 emissions it should be able to displace if there's some if there's an effort to do that what I've noticed is that in Libya recently you'll all have seen this 11 000 people at least were killed by a damn uh breach Dam collapsing um and when the Chernobyl disaster |
| 59:22 | happened less than 100 people were killed but lots of nuclear power stations were closed down in Japan they're still closing them down in Germany so what I haven't seen is plans to close down and d and did um you know deconstruct all the hydroelectric dams all around the world why not you know if it's killed 11 000 people so it's nothing to do with what what it actually is it's all because just everybody knows yeah we all know that nuclear power was bad you know so therefore we've got it doesn't matter |
| 59:52 | what it actually is the fact that only killed ten thousand so that that's how I see it it's just like this sort of a haze of uncertainty and lack of knowledge and base that's that's how these stupid decisions keep getting taken because people don't know anyway um Brian you've got your hand up and then we'll move on to the next thing because we need to do that yeah note that the um climate the dams are necessary in order to regulate water flow and ensure adequate irrigation or food Security on land and so I'm not |
| 1:00:25 | saying deconstruct the damage Brian I'm not saying that sorry yeah well so yeah those are Key Parts and maybe a different difference there yeah fair enough okay so they're needed for irrigation other things as well but nothing there's not been anything said about but anyway never mind so let's move on um move on thank you everyone for that here we go getting heated again all right so this was um cost estimate of marine Cloud brightening to stop the Isis if you've got some kind of update on that Stephen because I want |
| 1:00:59 | to kind of be using this thing so so here's the thing for me briefly um well uh the one of those you know that that radiative forcing I'm going to find it the radiative forcing diagram why am I being very quick about this the radiative forcing diagram from the ipcc if I can find it um uh it's uh this one here this one here um okay which says this this is the change to the warming and the coolings since um 1750 at the point of 2019. |
| 1:01:47 | so certain things are warming the planet and certain things are cooling the planet more than they used to so uh we so we know this pollution has been brightening clouds it's been reflecting more sunshine away and that was done accidentally um and now they're starting to take it away so the warming is you know prevailing more more and more so the fact that this was that some cooling quite a lot of cooling has been has been already done accidentally um but now if we want to do it deliberately you know we've all got to |
| 1:02:22 | be shot at dawn so like that's another thing that doesn't make sense to me um and Stephen is saying that you know this kind of this sort of thing can be done in the troposphere with um you know we call it Marine Cloud it's got a name now Marine Cloud brightening deliberately um for the well his co uh calculation in sort of 2012 was um here we are it's about the same cost of of the security uh people um in a cop so Stephen can you expand now please uh you're muted Stephen you're muted you're still muted |
| 1:03:08 | I can I can click you click that thing that's it the police Scotland estimate for security for cop 26 was 250 million and uh if you we're going to spend that every year on a cop uh you could have a capital uh investment of about 10 times that which would give you paying the bank and doing a bit of Maintenance so the question is uh how much cooling can you get with how many vessels and the the new people lose their jobs if they give the action uh cost estimate of any product but if you are forced to give a cost estimate what |
| 1:03:52 | you do is you look at the weight uh you look at the amount of material you look at working conditions and you look for a product that's made in the same numbers and the best thing I could find for that at the time I made this calculation was the Corvettes that were made by made for the Royal Navy in 1940 and they cost 60 000 pounds each you can index link that up to today a and you'll get a number for the cost of a spray vessel it's also uh about the same as 100 PhD students and it's also you can compare it with |
| 1:04:32 | the cost per ton of Earth moving Machinery which is the nearest sort of power and weight and that allows me to work out the cost of of spray vessels whether it's in or out by a factor of five doesn't really matter in in terms of the the costs of not doing uh climate control yeah the way I did the calculation for how many vessels was based on the rate of ice loss at the time the maximum rate was about 25 000 tons a second so if I know that and I know the latent heat of ice melting I can work out how many |
| 1:05:14 | joules of energy I need to remove from the Arctic system to stop the ice melting and if I then look at the amount of time we've got to do the cooling it's about two months in in the year and this allows me to work out how many spray vessels I need to cool the Arctic and the assumption that it isn't clear here is the uh the chain I'm assuming that there hasn't been any change in the amount of heat getting into the Arctic is Currents or winds now that's that's a bit questionable and we |
| 1:05:57 | could if we had numbers for that we could make a correction and this allows me to to say what the cost of the the the necessary size of Fleet will be and I can compare that with the police Scotland and that's where the calculation came from uh it's available where in in a bit of mascad which anyone can say that they want a different number for the the months of the year that you can call or whatever it's easily easily changed but uh it is a bit it was a surprise to me but it it's maybe telling you how much more |
| 1:06:32 | expensive security is for for cops than it should be figures that you came up with based on those assumptions Stephen second I didn't tell you that number the prices the costs that you found for a ship and for a large-scale deployment based on this analysis well the I got them off the web uh that I got the the cost per ton of heavy osmetic machine off the web yes but if you fast forward to the end product that you're developing what is the cost of one of the uh Salter ships it's about it's about three or four |
| 1:07:10 | million pounds each person it's not 300 kilowatts of power and it's 90 tons sorry was that again three three kilowatts 90 tons it's 3 kilowatts right vessel all right it's 90 ton of weight displacement yeah all right and um yeah 300 kilowatts of power to put Springs that's a true power yes yeah yeah and you can look up heavy Goods uh heavy alternating machines and they they are nine thousand pounds a ton at the moment and they're quite complicated and the mechanism of a heavy Earth moving |
| 1:07:50 | machine is very very like the variable uh pitch hydrofoils that I'm using for power generation and how and how many so 250 million so what is it about well uh I think I better check but I think the number I wanted to build was 700. 700 times 3 million three is that that right yeah okay so there's a total capital investment and then I'm saying the the annual cost of owning it will be about 10 of that yeah uh seven okay so 700 times 250 uh three to four um I mean trouble now yeah so that's uh that's uh two and a half billion yeah I |
| 1:08:43 | think you're saying so over ten years right so ten percent of that and you can then compare that with the 250. yeah but for your 300 kilowatts how many droplets per second are you producing change the 17. it's a pressure of 80 bar 10 to 17 droplets per second per second yeah 24 hours a day really yeah yeah uh so my other question here raising to this uh Alan gadion uh and and also Jim Haywood meteorologist um tend to say Don't just cool the Arctic uh cool the whole oceans and Alan Gannon they're quite right yeah we have |
| 1:09:29 | to do that because we can only do it in the Arctic for two months and we've got the other 10 months of the year with it's got to be done something so you want to move them somewhere where water or wind is blowing in the Arctic Direction yeah and and another so what I understand about the amok the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation this potential collapse well gonna happen at some point uh the problem with that is as I understand it so some again please somebody tell me if I'm wrong is the risk of Super Storms |
| 1:10:07 | and super storms happen when you have these very sharp temperature gradients so if you have a lot if you if you still have lots of heat coming in in the equatorial regions and then you've but you managed to cool the polar region you're going to get these really sharp temperature gradients so you're going to get Super Storms so you want to kind of bring the whole lot down if you bring the temperature down in the equatorial regions I mean the heat always flows from hot to Cold anyway and if you have |
| 1:10:32 | less humidity you're gonna have less cloud cover in the polar regions you're going to have less of that heat trapping going on they'll be able to lose their heat more easily and they'll just cool themselves down if you don't yeah you certainly want to do it on the way anything that's moving towards the Arctic you want to cool uh yeah yeah no one's saying anything against that it it just takes a bit longer and there's more people in the in the past who are moaning about it so the the |
| 1:11:00 | calculation of what you could do if you only did it in the Arctic is is still interesting and valid and it's a surprise I was astonished at this but I believe in the latent heat and I believed in the rate of ice loss yeah yeah I mean it's a sort of first order estimate really isn't it um that can be improved upon okay well that's that's answered the question I had thank you very much Stephen uh that's great okay so what's next then um oh John you sorry John you've got your hand up John listen |
| 1:11:34 | uh you're muted John yeah I've been arguing with Staton that in fact there's quite a lot of heat build beat built up in the Arctic through Albedo loss which could amount to one yes I did this before the ice had gone I there was it was a long time ago that I did this calculation when I could measure the amount of ice loss which was a very important number to put in yeah so yeah maybe it's too late now but yeah I could I could be wrong by a factor of 50 and it would still be a very good thing to |
| 1:12:12 | do hmm yeah yeah okay um okay I know you've there's been disagreements John um uh about um the kind of spreading and so forth um so okay let's move on because the the basic disagreement is well there's a lot of disagreement it's just uh we we just don't know very accurately how much uh cooling power is going to be required uh directed into the Arctic uh because we've got uh a lot of uh heating going on uh from the uh warm water flowing into the art group from the Atlantic and that's assuming |
| 1:13:03 | that that hasn't changed well it's increased so the temperature has gone up uh by about two two degrees yes but when I was doing this the temperature was being clamped because water and ice together fixed the temperature so no this is this is as a result of of uh global warming uh has um actually heated the uh the surface water flowing into the Arctic uh uh by by yeah yes and when was I studied it melted the ice rather than changing the temperature I I agree that the the the wind and water are affecting this |
| 1:13:47 | calculation and so we need to put numbers on what they are and we'll increase the number of spray vessels yeah yeah okay but it's quite it could be quite a lot that's that's right yeah but the temperature was when there was a lot of ice in the Arctic the temperature was locked because ice and water together have an exactly defined temperature they have an exactly defined temperature but zero if you if you have ice in contact with water yeah okay this is a way of getting an exact temperature we have discussed this uh quite a lot I |
| 1:14:24 | suggest we uh move on uh move on yeah because yeah because the whole thing is what's the cost and we know that we need to update the um that's right the these numbers but as Stephen said even if they're kind of an order of magnitude wrong it's still a good thing to do given that the risk of of nothing of nothing happening um absolutely agreed on that yeah yes thank you John yeah we know we need to do something okay so John McDonald why not replace SO2 aerosols with an alternative aerosol yeah well it's a question private Ron |
| 1:15:01 | Ron bayman's not on on this call I don't think but Ron and others have been doing some great work agitating uh to you know return the SO2 from ships uh probably a long way offshore um which is admirable but I think after 10 years in the making the Imo's not going to change their mind the hurry and there's a lot of faith face saying they face saving involved I guess um it might just be a bridge too far but maybe maybe a better discussion is to think about the position where we reach a con concession that the the cloud |
| 1:15:34 | forming aspects of um SO2 were valuable and and could we replace them with with the more benign aerosols so I'm emptying MCB particularly but more madine their results that have uh similar benefits so we've we've really got to try and find ways to open doors and have these discussions with with people get as many on board nodding as possible on a side to the health uh basis with what the benefits are and at the moment we're not even in the race we're not even the starting blocks but is that a is that a |
| 1:16:10 | discussion to just make it equivalent in terms of aerosols uh for the health benefits of other other aerosols if you inject a spray of salt particles into the exhaust manifold of a diesel engine you'll get exactly the effect that you've had now except that it's a benign material absolutely yeah all you've got is a drill and tap holds an exhaust manifold and squirt your eyes you you your sultan and so initially just argue to bring it up to the same level with alternative aerosols and let's just let's see how we go |
| 1:16:49 | offshore matching the ship tracks with other aerosols and in the starting point is is MCB obviously yeah the the the engineering is trivial right and the ships are out there and the ships can do the job and they may not be in the perfect position uh your best also be much more targeted but they're there and then and it sounds like a pretty simple thing to do but maybe that's a better argument than taking them on saying we need to go back to where the way we were and put it all out there again sulfur dioxide sulfur dioxide yeah but |
| 1:17:31 | it better be nine minutes at least they can save face you mean well I think they're not going to change their mind after that I mean it's they've been arguing this for 10 years and they don't turn around these things around the heart yeah that seems quite a good idea John to say um yes we realized that um they were doing some valuable cooling um so let's bring that back with a benign aerosol get agreement on that basis that it was that there was value in the aerosols there was there was damage sure there |
| 1:18:03 | was from pollution and health damage but the work there were advantages in otherwise and we just want to replace it for those so are you going to do do you have a connection to the international Maritime organization John yeah so it's through their PR people but I'm not sure that's the best way to cut through uh there's a Natasha Brown you've probably all seen emails from her I've I've been in contact with her maybe maybe it's a question I'll Thrive to and uh Mike started she might be able to |
| 1:18:38 | open the discussion up internally but there's there's a lot of presentations they put on the IMO put on conferences and presentations and if anyone has contact there you get in front of an audience it might be something worth bringing to a head and Chris is Vivian's not here today um but he I think he sort of knows people who know people he knows he knows people exactly who know people in the Imo so um yeah so that sounds like a good um Pursuit John let's see how that goes a little bit more steering behind the |
| 1:19:16 | scenes yeah yeah okay report back when you get some some traction maybe yeah that'd be good yeah okay that's great thank you John no comments looks of things okay so I think we're so we're down to we've got 15 minutes to talk about um the cop which might be good so it's not just about who's going but whatever what it might be about and what's the opportunity so herb would you like to introduce that please uh yes I don't have anything particularly uh prepared or thoughtful to say I simply uh once I found out |
| 1:19:55 | um that I have a ticket for the first week or so I want to maximize um my ability to do what I can there and support those of you or your colleagues or others who are also going to be there and so I don't know if there's a way that um uh you know uh outside of this call those of us who are going or no people who are going can periodically get together over the next few weeks occasionally uh to see what programs uh are being planned Etc again I I don't this will be I mean I've attended twice as a sort of public member in Madrid and |
| 1:20:33 | Paris but this will be my first time sort of where I'm allowed in the front door and at least for a few days so I'm I'm looking forward to that I'm not necessarily looking forward to being in Dubai but I am looking forward to being at the cup so um you know I look I eager to hear what what folks have to say anyone to buy in November will be nicer than being in Glasgow but I I was in Glasgow I was also in Copenhagen and I thought it was a complete waste of time uh the thing that symbolized it most was having a Formula |
| 1:21:14 | One racing car in Glasgow to show how what they were doing for the climate problem not an electric one that's a gasoline Formula One in okay so much lighter making it out of carbon fiber yeah right so Hugh and Sean I don't want to sort of uh pick on you but you sort of said you might be going or you would be going to the cop do you have your own meetings about what to do do you want to the eyes with the herb at all well so I mean I can just say that we put applications in with other with various organizations the way it works |
| 1:21:53 | is it you know if you try and put in applications with others you're more likely to get uh an opportunity to host an event or be a participate in an event and various topics so we've got a few applications in at the moment we're still waiting to hear whether they've been accepted or not um and then uh we're going to be submitting a few more over the next few days uh probably this week what do you want to talk about there what do you want to hold events about there well it's a range of topics so in the center |
| 1:22:25 | for client repair we're doing some stuff on ocean-based carbon dioxide removal so we've got some projects on that uh Clive so working with collaborators there and depends on The Pavilions that you're going to pick you know apply to so if you want to host an event for example and there's a you know there's a pavilion called the ocean Pavilion well guess what you know you know asking to go and do an event on ocean-based carbon dioxide removal seems more appropriate than you know pitching to do something |
| 1:22:52 | on the built environment at the ocean okay so you've got to do the right thing for the right place I'm going to try and figure out you know what the right Pavilion to host is but um there are some other there are some country Pavilions uh that I would like to sort of try and investigate maybe some of the Nordic uh countries uh so in those Scandinavian countries uh to see whether there's any opportunity to pitch uh the idea of doing some refreeze uh activities there so anyway that's really it's a case of just we're I've got a |
| 1:23:26 | meeting tomorrow or Wednesday I think it's Wednesday actually with our engagement engagement manager and trying to put together various applications this week okay great thank you so it's kind of bit up in there at the minute um Robert uh yeah I just want to draw a skirt here and uh and Sean I mean are you are you looking uh are you trying to uh set up any engagements that specifically deal with calling whilst you're there any kind any kind of Albedo enhancement technology well as I as I just said |
| 1:23:55 | Robert what I would like to try and do they've got there's a pavilion called the cryosphere Pavilion uh they're also the Scandinavian um Pavilions we were too late for the skip for the cryosphere Pavilion Court which is a real disappointment they were it was out and gone the same day all right but uh some of the Scandinavian ones uh we would like to go and uh investigate whether that might be possible but you know we're in touch with a youth group called operate operating SEO office uh they will have |
| 1:24:25 | uh at least one probably two people uh in Dubai for the week two as well is that the Finnish Group by the way yep yeah um and you know we're gonna they I think gonna be reaching out to the uh to The Finnish Pavilion to see what There's an opportunity to host an event there as well is that just just a principal name is that specifically with regard to some kind of calling technology because yes good good yeah because you know in other words but targeting those Pavilions in that region Robert rather than some |
| 1:24:58 | of the others where you think you're gonna you know it's just going to be an appetite for emissions reduction and carbon dioxide removal but um but the cryospheres Pavilion would have been would have been nice to have a go at at that as well um how just all pervasive is that appetite for emissions reduction and and it's it's the message that everybody wants to hear and as we've been saying earlier tonight it's just extraordinary how somehow the message that we've got it somehow it's assumed we've got a plug is that |
| 1:25:36 | 1.5 is possible by emissions reduction somehow we're not allowed to say that's not possible we've got to say oh because there's a money chance that it's possible we've got to as soon as possible it drives what drives me potty though is that I mean you guys all know this and um I can't remember who mentioned it earlier but you know the 1. |
| 1:26:00 | 5 figure is something that the wider public think is 1.5 and it's not 1.5 right the detail is 1.5 by the end of the century and let's keep quiet about it folks because we're going to sail right through the damn figure regardless of what What scenario I mean we get we're going to go through it 20 between 2030 and 2050. |
| 1:26:20 | according to every scenario being considered by the ipcc it's like the world's best kept secret hiding in plain sight we're not talking about it um so you know we should be clear that a 1.5 is 1.5 it's not 1.5 with some magical overshoot and then dipping down you know like and it is it's going to be magic dust that does it all right well it is magic dust and last last year I went to the the Canada Pavilion for an event which was packed absolutely packed by these people who are saying that Canada is is 1.5 degrees ready you know |
| 1:26:58 | Canada's got everything ready to go for achieving its um its commitments uh and it's only the politicians that are not willing to uh to to get this thing started and all the cheering and applauding and everything oh just it was so upbeat but the fact is that if you're in Edmonton Alberta in the middle of the winter um everybody's got a gas or an oil-fired furnace to keep the house warm um where in Edmonton Alberta are they ready to switch over to zero carbon fuels I mean they're not so it is |
| 1:27:38 | a complete myth but somehow know that Canada's ready to go carbon zero next week um but it's but it gets people to be shouting and screaming about how wonderful Canada is um and everywhere you go around the whole Pavilion after a pavilion is is brainwashed into thinking that it's all possible so then you start saying oh no but we we it's not going to work we need to do um geoengineering but of course everyone's heard how evil geoengineering is nobody wants to hear anything about geoengineering so Robert |
| 1:28:15 | Chris you're asking you know what are we what are we trying to do God just there there are they're just there are not hooks to hang our message on at this meeting and if there were hooks to hang the message on uh that'd be really helpful but there aren't any hooks to hang the message on and and it's very hard to so we had some events last last year um and really get 20 people coming along and they're very polite and then they're going to get a cup of coffee um no one's shouting and screaming |
| 1:28:51 | saying wow this is this is the message we want to hear Converse to that two weeks ago I was in Helsinki at this meeting organized by operatio arctis and I put the link in the chat um if you scroll up you'll find the link to their report here is this bunch of 20 year olds organizing the best meeting I've been to in years quietly politely cleverly thoughtfully um fantastic absolutely fantastic uh you know we all thought the same here we talked about it and uh so we've got to somehow uh as Sean mentioned it before you know here |
| 1:29:37 | we are we're all sitting around this meeting uh where are those young people um and well they are they're they're having their own meetings in a different way maybe they're going to have an impact but is that the Finland report that was just uh put there and by the way Hugh I um I will second your effort I mean this is the same Canada that this year more than one percent of it has burned oh yeah and PM 2. |
| 1:30:09 | 5 particles across the eastern city board and black set in Greenland and on the sea ice so uh you know it's uh I mean a huge portion of Canada has burned already and is going to be burning each year for the foreseeable future so it's just politics it is politics uh pathetic and Robert thank you Brian uh just going back to the Paradigm Shift questions it's about the psychology of mass delusion and uh the need that people have for Hope and people can't live without hope and uh so the only thing that gives uh the mass Society is |
| 1:30:47 | the idea that emission reduction can keep a warming below 1.5 because without that it's either despair or geoengineering and and so so that that psychological uh context uh has to be understood to uh to explain why just such grossly deluded statements are routinely passed off as scientific as following the science hmm yeah this is it's just I'm just bewildered actually bewildered I I had thought you know that it'd be about money you know I know we can't afford but no it's it's just uh as as you've |
| 1:31:31 | said it's um just fatuous or facile ridiculous you know Wishful double think sort of thing but it's just as you know Maxwell's equation showed the anomalies in in the Newtonian Paradigm and similarly you know the claim that 1.5 can keep us that that emission reduction cap us below 1.5 is an anomaly within the scientific Paradigm and as the anomalies increase uh eventually a new paradigm emerges but that hasn't happened yet um well um I've got no answer Robert has anyone got it I think we need a huge publicity |
| 1:32:18 | campaign explaining that geoengineering isn't is dangerous thing and high risk that Santa's got to raise the money for that John yeah uh well we should try uh we should try raising the money yeah sure and then how do people know to trust you or us or you know any of us well they they trust a good presenter and you know with David Attenborough saying uh we've got to re freeze the Arctic which he more or less has said um look we can actually actually we might be able to do this uh in a in quite a safe way |
| 1:33:00 | uh and the the dangers of a risk of putting sa2 into the stratosphere have been vastly yeah I mean if if you've got something like him saying that and and then you saw some uh you know pictures of uh tankers we put it out with sprays and you saw some uh cotton trails ethics including you know you it starts to bring it down to it might work kind of like I tell you why that doesn't happen that doesn't work kind of every day it doesn't it doesn't work because the David Attenborough programs have evolved over |
| 1:33:42 | a long period of time the BBC has it's been a great success story those programs and every step along the way David Attenborough has been a figure that we've come to trust over decades started off as a young man and we've really just grown up with him and he's and he's and and what he's been very careful to do is to avoid controversy everything he does is extremely you know effectually correct taking pictures of things that are there anyone else can see it um now we we have had our Center for |
| 1:34:16 | client repair we've had endorsements from David Attenborough and then we think okay well now let's try and put on some kind of BBC documentary and well I've tried I've I've gone to two or three different production companies saying well let's do something on geoengineering and what they end up doing is they talk to different people they get different points of view they try to find a consensus and there isn't a consensus there isn't a consent it there is a consensus when people look at the you |
| 1:34:47 | know the varroa mites that are in the bees and they look at the the the plight of the of the the whales and the polar bears and they look at there is consensus all of these things but when it comes to geoengineering unfortunately I mean there's consensus around this around this meeting now um in order to get David Attenborough to to plug geoengineering it's not him that has to plug it it's the it's the the broadcasting companies that have to have to have the the the the consensus and the guts to do it and I |
| 1:35:24 | know having spoken to a lot of them they don't and they won't they won't do it yeah and it hasn't changed I remember going to a BBC somebody that was in charge of London weekend television I think it was a long long time ago I mean 15 years ago or something and said why isn't climate change why aren't you saying anything at all about climate change and said well we we did it's too controversial we can't you know if we get it wrong we'll be embarrassed and we can't have that so they haven't changed |
| 1:35:52 | and and maybe they can't because they can't risk you know too much bad publicity so maybe they simply can't so maybe it has to be people like us doing things on YouTube I keep thinking well when am I going to get around to having my own YouTube channel and you know get all the Flaming and all the controversy but I've got time at the minute I'm doing other things I just you've got to do it properly if you're going to do a YouTube YouTube presentations um they high quality seems to win the |
| 1:36:24 | day yeah Public public uh broadcasting will will have a real problem because it's so controversial one could produce a film a provocative film and yeah um because it would cost money we need to raise money but that's the kind of thing we might get from uh uh from um George Soros perhaps yeah well maybe if you could put together some points John because you're very well aware and you you know have organized thoughts and maybe with a few other people if they want to contribute and put together just a like a nothing |
| 1:37:11 | more than one page well look I know Robert Chris has had his hand up oh sorry sorry Robert I'm not doing my job probably I've got something to say about the the film but Robin you go first yeah yeah okay yeah well I'm just going to say that this conversation uh just to me emphasizes the challenge dare I see impossibility of of actually actually getting a satisfaction result here because the the the the the changes that are required are kind of almost everything this is not I'm not talking about the science |
| 1:37:44 | I'm not talking about the engineering I'm talking it right across the board on such enormous scale and now have to happen so quickly that it is really difficult to see how in an organized orderly way um Humanity can kind of get that together given and this is a really important Point given the experience of the last 30 or 40 years when climate change has been very much on the international agenda you know so as I've said on many occasions before you know when we look back and we say you know why is it that we haven't kind of got |
| 1:38:21 | our act together so far and whilst you're answering that question consider why is the next 20 30 years going to be any different you know I have to say I don't see anything out there that suggests to me that even though the problem is becoming that much more real and that much more in our faces I don't see that the impediments to effective action are any less now than they were and if anything I think they are greater and much of what's been said in this conversation is a precise illustration of that and we should not |
| 1:38:55 | over imagine the power of our voices we have you know we're nobody we are absolutely nobody the the elites that have the power to make these changes don't listen to people like us they have their they're in their little Enclave they talk to each other um they dismiss anybody who are Outsiders it's very very difficult to break in to that inner circle and that's a problem because we stand here screaming and shouting or uh or not screaming and shouting just being very rational and quiet and reasoned but we |
| 1:39:28 | just don't get hurt because our narrative doesn't suit their story and that's the fundamental problem and that's why uh I have to say that I think that um this story has a kind of a natural inevitability about it regrettably um you know not something I'm I'm pleased with but I didn't I used to think that we we had time I don't think we have time now I think that the die is Now cast and it's just going to be too difficult to make these changes because whatever good ideas are coming up and |
| 1:40:01 | there are good ideas all over the place uh the central problem is scale and speed and I think we've run out of road so Robert should we be mad and marry and just party from now on no I don't think so I think we should start actually um I have mentioned this in a couple of uh um messages that have been completely ignored which is which is fine but we should start thinking about otaki we should start thinking about getting our governments to focus on making on relocalizing everything the British Isles for example you know Australia New |
| 1:40:35 | Zealand get your food supply 100 domestic get as much as you can within your local control your energy Supply totally domestic but if they're not going to do it on Geo engineering when they're not going to listen to this us on that either and and prepare for a very Rocky ride put steel all around your borders I'm not talking seriously they're not why would they listen to that they wouldn't yeah that's the same problem you won't listen to it so it's all you know this is the story because that that |
| 1:41:09 | itself would take 30 years to get into place yeah well look we could be optimistic Robert in 30 years time let's sit around and have a beer 107. that's what I'm saying I'm safe maybe 10 years time or five years time we've gone over our time folks um well look that's pretty interesting thank you very much yeah John sorry John you just had your hand up I missed you John it's going quickly just want to reinforce what Sean was saying I mean that those are those operators like disguise were really very encouraging I |
| 1:41:47 | mean they they talked about intervening so maybe we should try and get closer to them maybe we should try a brief then because it's the young guys like that that might cut through here politicians should listen to them they they certainly have votes and they should listen to them more than us ever watch of the conversation with Anton at the last hpac meeting it was very good yes it was yes he was very impressive very very impressive yeah yeah it was impressive well I mean I've got the I've got their book here I've got a hard copy |
| 1:42:17 | of it and just in case you're wondering who the organizing committee are yeah there they are yeah with a bunch of people that are sitting around on the call tonight and and then you open up their book okay and then look at what's in the middle of it there's a whole section um you know it's that's they're not they're not showing away from it they get at those guys they get it you know they really do and I yeah they're just anyway download it it's the link is in the chat and it's |
| 1:43:03 | 2023. it can't be as more up-to-date ah look Ursula wants to speak sorry just out of curiosity what does um we're talking about young people being maybe the hopefully the way forward well you know um like those great people in Finland and that you were telling us about um what what does Greta turnberg say about um geoengineering she says if you're in a hole stop digging yeah and she said it represents the the same domineering thinking that got us into the problem so it's this this argument that geoengineering is a form |
| 1:43:44 | of domineering uh uh uh thinking uh which just needs to be totally rejected that was the argument in her climate book although what was interesting is that she and um uh and um Attenborough did a program in the BBC last year two years ago um a sort of a joint a double act on three episodes on climate and it was very interesting that she went to visit um a place that um did tree a tree Plantation and she said all right this is solution this is great and then at one point she asked the the person who was planting the trees and said so how long do these |
| 1:44:33 | trees take to grow and he said Oh They'll reach maturity in about 30 years time um so when will they start absorbing any carbon dioxide and he said uh well you know probably in about 30 years time and then uh she said oh won't that be a bit too late and he said well yeah but let's hope we've got to plant trees and it was you know she said it she said it herself I get that message didn't make it under the headline news at all um so but she said it I think there's a lot more materials but you know that people |
| 1:45:15 | could understand the basics is needed real fundamental Basics simple stuff the trouble is it's also complicated isn't it anyway we've run out of time the fact that you were saying you know that it just takes too long to uh so there are some very plain and simple things that can be clearly explained aren't there there are lots of things can be plain and simple I try to do that all the time people have said can't keep going Clive you know yes make it understandable um but I mean the fact that they've |
| 1:45:51 | finished those young people some some of them have got the right idea I think actually quite a lot have but that you know it's there's there are other forces so I I don't I don't want to give up basically I'm not here what's that Brian let's invite the Finns here to uh I've invited um so um Anton he's he's in the NOAA meetings I thought he might be here but um I think he said he might like to come if you can but no if if you want a bit of an inspiration I've just put |
| 1:46:22 | another Link in the chat um at the end of this conference last week two weeks ago in Helsinki um they did a show in a in a big theater in the middle of uh Helsinki and it was it was emceed by a 22 year old um let me start like this yeah I want you to imagine you're a smoker yeah we saw that we we saw that um and if you haven't watched it just back in the day when you started smoking a friend told you that you should quit Herb's got it on at the moment I'm okay okay one day who's got it on at the moment |
| 1:47:02 | uh I was heard he was just listening to it yeah yeah you know and anyway look I I'm gonna I'm gonna go I think I'm gonna tell you what Robert has suggested I'm going to locally Source some sustenance right now yeah me too hi everybody thank you very much see you again in two weeks thank you fail |