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Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling

Transcript for: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1cWmTlsHmA&t=275s

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00:03okay well once up gets here now um i suck circulated my thoughts on a um timeline for um climate change and i'll be happy to talk and speak to that sounds good received a few responses so i called it i called it and we have a name for it um and welcome security timeline because i'm really interested in this question of the relationship between albedo and emissions in terms of climate priorities so um i'm happy to uh is anybody got us i'll send it anything else to raise before we and seb's not here so
00:52i might just jump in on that one unless anybody's got any anything else i want to say i think what i'll do is i'll email him uh right and i'm getting something from brian as well so now i had trouble entering the meeting there were i think there seem to be two different urls for i don't know apologize it's it's down to me um i i thought it had issued the same i checked the last few characters and this thought it was the same link but for some reason it's different presumably you clicked on the same link
01:31did you enjoyed or did you click a different link to get into it this time well i had one from an invitation in my diary which was different to the one that you just recently circulated and uh so but then i went back to that first one so anyway but um it might be worth um just sending the current url in an email now clive do you mind doing that uh so which one is it which one did you are you in on now okay let's i'll stop this chair so i can have a look and there's information on invite link it's n09
02:24yeah and copy link yeah okay so i'll go back to screen share and i'll just talk to big button all right so um i've just speculated um i've just circulated this picture um to a bunch of lists as a fairly provocative way to present a different vision on the priorities for climate change and um john englender got back to me to say that this is naive but uh um the way i look at it is is that cutting emissions doesn't really do much to affect the temperature whereas albedo enhancement would do a lot
03:14and so i think we can the world can afford to defer the focus on cutting emissions in much the same way that the current view is that we should defer a focus on albedo enhancement so um i'd be interested in people's thoughts on that you know robert i i like that i was i was kind of shocked that uh john english said that this would basically be a moral hazard um your arguments that you've presented over over months um i nobody's seemed to have argued with that in the past but i i like it um just to new people who've arrived uh
04:03clive invited me to to share the meeting so uh welcome everyone and our agenda at the moment consists of um a discussion from sev who's now joined us and uh my thoughts on the climate security timeline the the picture that i just showed so um unless people want to comment on that climate security timeline now we can um move on to serve so uh john has his hand raised robert in case you've noticed go for it sean um so robert could you just bring your lovely slide up yep there it is so i'm not going to take any
04:47credit for this observational remark i'm going to leave that to robert chris one of our colleagues greenhouse gas removal convert carbon dioxide and methane into useful commodities yeah that's that's my view about this is the view of quite a lot of people robert and the question is um we are currently emitting what 50 giga tons of carbon dioxide equivalent yes globally can we think of what 50 gigatonnes of stuff actually is in terms of useful commodities all right yeah carbon that being embedded embodied within materials that we then
05:39want to use as useful products and materials and yes actually does that equate to anything like what the world needs in reality [Music] one example of this is um aggregate used in concrete and i think there are examples like blue planet that are working to i i our question is not what it's being used for but the scale the yeah so that's so the way i refer to yeah it's actually uh the the demand for aggregate approaches uh many gigatons maybe tens of gigatons yeah i think it's possible i agree we get to ones and tens do we get to 50
06:37i have to look it up look but what was the lovely challenge to me by somebody else and actually i thought oh gosh that's a really good point but the issue is that to restore the climate stability we need to remove about a hundred gigatons of uh carbon dioxide equivalents from from from the from the biosphere each each year but uh and then so the question is where can you put that and it's it's a balance between converting into useful commodities and uh sequestering and uh outside of the system so where i'm going with this is the
07:15relevance of the useful commodities versus actually what's the elephant in the room and does it get it does it get you to i don't know one ten gigatons whereas we've got another 40 to sort out well i think soil is going to be a big carbon and if we can start to make biochar on the gigaton scale then just adding that biochar to agricultural and forest locations you could readily do that at the uh 50 gigatonne scale just with soil alone is is my uh suspicion so and there's there's a few other just
07:55really large stores you know talking about concrete like using carbon to build roads and buildings you can really start to scale it up uh is is my opinion so it's about 70 giga tons of concrete used each year globally but i think uh we should always say that decarbonization is our is a an essential step to achieving significant drawdown as a first step towards uh you know getting back to a healthy climate but is it a first step is it a first step see this is this is the thing that's okay yeah but my view is that we can
08:35we can afford we can afford to take a little bit longer over cutting emissions because we're not putting any focus at all at the moment on albedo and uh and not much focus on converting co2 into useful stuff but and i think the reason i put conversion is that if you do convert it into useful stuff like soil then it has an economic value and and that can be used to fund the uh the scale-up of conversion technologies that might cost more but um on the subject of soil i i did a module studying soil at imperial and um
09:16it's it's such a complex substance that consists of so many different um so many different organisms interacting including fungus and even worms and things like that and actually uh one of the i think the tutor mentioned the biochar could interfere with worms getting through the soil in the way they want that sort of thing so i don't know how much research has been done into that but i know you can't just suddenly make the perfect soil just with the um you know the non-biological elements just by biochar
09:52for instance it's a very complex interaction between those different you know the biota within the soil so i don't know how much study has been done into that and the impacts on the the little creatures within the soil quite a bit of research has been done on um interactions between biochar and how it does contribute to healthy soil microbial communities and when the char is fine enough it's completely compatible right that's probably the key thing yeah fineness yeah i'm just going to close it as well
10:28yep can you hear me yes yeah uh yeah i was just going to say that yeah i agree i agree that i mean it's a huge amount that needs to be drawn down from the every year so you have to think about lots of people are thinking about lots of little things to do and um so two comments first of all i mean great idea biochar but if there was an economic value wouldn't somebody be doing it now and and gigatons of biochar that's the first point and isn't the second isn't what we always always trying to talk about
11:08uh albedo from well marine cloud brightening which cambridge are working on already and things like um cochlear is a four throughout the ocean or as much as possible as can be allowed throughout the ocean scaling up incrementally of course as we've as we've said and the economic value of huge amounts of carbon dioxide becoming as we've also discussed fish in the sea and other biomass in the sea this this this is the the large amounts that's needed that somebody needs to focus on and i think that's what we're
11:43trying to do in these meetings i'm sure we're not the only ones but that's that's the point it's so easy to get lost in you know arguments about smaller things but we need to be arguing we're going to be arguing which i'm sure we will be for for the foreseeable about the really big how to study the ocean its chemistry and its and its you know flows as we've been doing to produce enormous amounts of carbon draw down by making biomass and uh increasing the albedo at relevant parts of the ocean at the
12:17relevant times of the year that's really what i wanted to say good points we're still making um it by artisanal means we need to industrialize the production of biochar pyrolysis is not a good way of doing it very highly polluting and can't easily scale however using the the um the the seaweed carbonization using the hydrothermal carbonization methods which i suggest do appear to have the capability of scaling up very well to industrial scale that's my thinking exactly sir thank you so brian all forms of paralysis are not created
13:12equal it has been demonstrated in the peer-reviewed literature that hydrothermal char production tends to be non-permanent but that may or may not be an issue at the bottom of the ocean and um there are some forms of paralysis that are clean and so it's probably worth looking at the distinctions there and at small scale paralysis tends to do well at large scale gasifiers have been used commonly in the past yeah so as clive said it's it's a massive research problem working out how how best to scale up and uh the thing is
13:55that this is where uh public research investment should go and similarly with albedo you know that government subsidies should be going to the activities that have the biggest impact on radiative forcing and i would say that that's number one increasing albedo number two a research program to convert co2 into useful stuff that will have a value such as biochar and then i i just put um decarbonizing the economy as number three you know in in the same way that the ipcc has put albedo enhancement as number three in
14:34its list of of priorities i just reverse that list and say albedo ought to be number one and uh it like market forces can manage emission reduction because you know if if renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels then people will make that switch but it doesn't it accelerating it does not make the difference that has been claimed for it so you know accelerating emission reduction can uh pull you know a few gigatons out of the system whereas what's needed is to pull 100 gigatons out of the system each year
15:09so it's it's just at a different scale so the pareto logic is you know 80 20. if you're going to get 80 of your result from um greenhouse gas removal then that's where you should put 80 of your effort but at the moment we've got 20 percent or less on that any hands well uh i'll just say that apologies to everybody i can only stay for a short time today i'll be back in a fortnight's time and i'll disappear now thank you very much for hosting this meeting robert i'll disappear now thanks
15:47thanks clive um i'll see you later um i'd like to uh pass over to seth clark to uh to lead the discussion of the agenda item that he circulated thanks so robert um first of all congratulations to you on that on that building diagram it's beautifully simple it beautifully tells the ordinary person that you've got to build the the foundation before you do the walls before you do the roof and this is what um albedo does it it pours the concrete for the base and then you you build the walls uh for the for this various cdr methods
16:29and finally yeah you you you get industry to mitigate decarbonize by 101 different methods so that's it's a really great diagram and full marks for you where was where did the original idea come from you said you took it from someone else uh no i didn't i made it up myself oh well then i i thought you said it had had antecedents even better then it's definitely got antecedents like the three-legged stool is an antecedent but it's not one that i um endorse because i don't think of the three legs as equal i
17:05think of the the um brightening leg as much more urgent brian yes i do want to mention that this year's methane emissions will do contribute more to the next 20 years of warming than this year's co2 emissions and so if we were to add any further resolution to decarbonization of greenhouse gases we might want to place a higher priority on methane emission removal or at reduction in elimination simply because of that little-known fact it's a great point the ipcc measures methane at 25 when it should be measuring it at 100 times co2
17:53what was the factor um ryan 25 um on a 10 or 20 year time scale 20 year time scale i believe it's up around 70 to 100. yeah agreed so is that good brian you know just decimate the methane emissions immediately uh and that get will slow the warming rate of course um these are all these all need to be done concurrently but in terms of prioritization you know i i agree that uh robert's onto something here with setting the priorities of course with with them you can do it concurrently just by tackling cattle as a single sector
18:38basically because that would reduce uh methane emissions and also um co2 from deforestation and other you know land use change for um providing uh grazing land wouldn't that that is not very very popular i understood when i was uh friends of the earth and i i did research into uh impacts of agriculture and climate and uh went to the director at the time he basically said it's better to do the third most important thing that's popular than trying to see you know the thing that's got a bigger impact but
19:11won't be so they weren't they went for solar panels on school roofs instead we could get we could get the uh producers of gas to get rid of leaks in their pipelines that's it's important like that sort of things not not only leaks but you know when they're blowing up gas pipelines in the ukraine you know there's a lot of emissions going on there considering the entire capacity of a pipeline okay well if we're to to concentrate on on albedo first which i concur with then in this meeting we've got quite a lot of
19:50uh of the the input to it we've got stephen's work we've got uh dan harrison's work on the great barrier reef um we've got my setomizers we've got even the the buoyant flakes have have a a small contribution to brightening the ocean surface we've got the uh the fizz top the the the brightening the ocean using bubbles which was originally uh russell seis's idea but he used micro bubbles rather than nano bubbles which must last longer and finally we've got the the ice shield so all of those are
20:32conceptually uh appropriate technologies to increase the albedo did you mention did you mention stratospheric aerosol injection i didn't because it's not a favorite of mine but yes that would be would be there it should be um it's the most powerful to me the risks are uh for that are a lot greater than the other other other methods and i'd like to i'd like to discuss that sometime yeah yeah and let's come back to that john the the acceptability the social acceptability of it has got um uh
21:11it's it's attracted more flack than some of the lesser known known methods and as i said start start with safe stuff so start with things that are that can get public agreement as being denied he's done that on the great barrier reef the only trouble is he hasn't got the droplets of the right size but we think again steven thinks he can i think i can and uh and then the as i said the uh the buoyant flakes and the the ice shields also come into it and in daniel's very great defense he's the first one to not claim he's got
21:53the droplets of the right size he's daniel is really open-minded and so he's secured the uh i guess the the support of the great barrier reef authorities to actually try and do something in the field and very very open-minded as to therefore what the right droplet generation method is in order to achieve the right droplet sizes so you know i think there's a real openness of mind there that's great and that's really great that the ccrc is is is looking at those sort of things too and hopefully we can get
22:24other other research organizations to do it also so that's that's the the first point i'd make i've already made the point about how do you try and industrialize biochar interestingly enough the methane splitting technology um will also produce a biochar granted a a lower value biochar than graphene or or maybe carbon black but nonetheless something which you could use to to make forest grow better which the methane itself is isn't reducing atmospheric co2 but growing the forests based on biochar derived from methane would do so
23:17and that can be done um probably fairly fairly quickly because the the methane splitting technology has already been developed by a number of organizations um okay coming back to that paper i sent round which hopefully you've all received and and uh and looked at a little bit were there any i i don't i don't really want to talk about all of them are there any ones which arouse people's curiosity which they'd like to hear a little bit more about is this the updated mmcdr document yeah yeah the the more climate more solutions
24:04document not not that not that one it's about the 16 different uh inventions which i've i've put out only only one of which the the sunni scheme is is now got all the bits of it but my so if sean has raised the the question of the business model and and daniel uh backed up that in the in the comments and uh so uh like i i think your ideas are great but the question is how do you get investment and uh you know who who will invest and uh see see my view is that the fossil fuel industry should invest in your technologies and if they did that
24:52then um they would be able to be implemented at large scale quite quickly and uh but the when people are like i just got this comment back saying you know the main thing is to shut down the fossil fuel industry so you can't possibly cooperate with them we've got to destroy their property rights um by uh you know stranding their assets and and that's the path forward and i just don't like that uh that the conflict that's inherent in that um in that current approach whereas if we said okay let's give a hundred million
25:25to serve and um and you know a 100 million to daniel harrison and uh we'll we'll put you know serious effort into uh exactly how uh how do we do how do we uh address albedo like which of these which of these items are the most cost efficient in terms of their impact on radiative forcing i mean that that seems to me the metric and so i'd be interested in your thoughts on on those those things yeah um the fossil fuel industry particularly the big gas producers ought to be most interested in that stunning scheme
26:06method of splitting methane so you can get emissions-free height green hydrogen or blue-green hydrogen and then the the the carbon product you can you might start off using for up for agriculture and for carbon black for tyres and things like that but very soon you should be able to make a graphene and ultra capacitors which would replace fossil fuels in transport and things like that so that that should be the first brew pierce is doing quite a lot of work with with some of these potential funders i've tried many times to get the
26:49the various big companies interested in in these uh with basically you never unless you come from a from a warm known source or a strongly renowned university you're not going to get even read or listen to so i can't uh push it more than i've have been pushing it but if if if we get a few research papers showing that that there's a prospect for one or other of them and the boy and flakes and the cetamizers are probably the best bets then we should be getting interest from industry and government to do it
27:40i i don't have another business model myself but the barrier to that investment is that there's a lack of endorsement by governments of albedo as a climate problem like that they're not saying let's put the investment into um fixing the albedo by you know reducing radiative forcing in the fastest way we can so there isn't the and if the government if the ipcc endorsed that as a as a priority then the investment would flow but at the moment that investment is blocked because of the moral hazard reasoning
28:16yes and daniel harrison is the best way through that or one of the ways through that but he hasn't yet quite got to uh to take off point yeah the investment needs to scale up a lot and you know now with the new government in australia and you know they call it the climate election and uh but the uh the total emphasis in the public policy debate has been on cutting emissions and i'm simply pointing out that that that's actually not going to prevent a climate catastrophe um is there anybody else who wants to
28:52comment i'm just wondering if there's a misconception uh that actually by reducing emissions in a particular region you're suddenly gonna reduce the amount of hurricanes you're hit by or or droughts and and wildfires that actually people think that you know if they locally do that then there definitely is that like people say that closing the adani coal mine in queensland will save the great barrier reef and the the causal logic there is is very circuitous because by closing adani we reduce the amount of co2
29:24by a very small amount and and so that has a tiny contribution to slowing the rate of warming um but uh it's it doesn't actually directly affect the reef but yeah that's a common misconception john mcdonald yeah look at it i'm just going to say daniel harris has done a great job getting some traction on the the the great barrier reef it uh it is a very highly political uh area to work in as well and this is why we as robert has been saying it and i've been saying oh many others have been saying the southern ocean is a
29:58better place to test uh marine cloud brightening i think it's it's certainly far better than the arctic as we know it if we could turn some funds towards the southern ocean um that that would have a massive benefit it's a great place to test we've got a lot of good scientists around that area based in hobart and down south in australia so just uh just a thought the emphasis maybe should be working further south and then on the barrier reef because of the the political nature of the reef so yeah but we could also be working on the gulf
30:36stream so so the americans if they they um had marine cloud brightening done on the gulf stream before it goes into the caribbean and up the the east coast of america they wouldn't have tornadoes and and hurricanes of such strength or frequency and stephen salter has commented that it's possible uh meteorologically to identify the uh source point of um hurricanes and apply direct cooling to heat blobs and so on in the ocean in order to regulate the weather now that's that's a way of thinking that people
31:17have barely begun to to scratch um now can i just invite sean he's just said he has to leave fairly soon just check if he wants to make any comments before he goes um i wasn't i'm following the conversation i mean uh clearly um i i heard what you said john regarding the uh you know scientists and the southern ocean um but i think actually you know whoever the relevant stakeholders are in any given community um you know dan neil harrison has spent ten years cultivating this relationship with the great barrier reef and just being
32:02able to try stuff out in the field where you've got just so many unknown parameters to have to deal with so we've recently some experiments off the coast of india um and you know the experiments didn't quite go to plan because you're dealing with stuff out in the field but you know daniel's got this permission really to go and use the field and then to further our understanding so even if it's not the area that you may be wishing to deploy marine club brightening uh as a priority in the nearer term my goodness me it's
32:42an incredible resource of um you know of outdoor experiments that's available brian i'm going to hand over to you thank you um so along those lines of heat blocks there actually we've considered that by restoring natural upwelling to those regions you're mixing in a renewable source of cooling from the deep ocean able to facilitate marine permaculture and other forms of regenerated uh seaweed forest offshore and that cooler mixed layer can actually diffuse the energy available for hurricanes and tropical cyclones
33:26in a rather um scalable way and so that might prove to be more cost effective than adding heat blocks per se in the end yeah that's very good economic case for uh mitigating hurricanes but you know that hasn't really been accepted by the ipcc uh it seems um would you get any fog formation from the cold water you're uplifting into the warm tropical seas it's possible but i think the temperature it's not so much the surface as the mix layer the top 100 meters or so you really want to be reducing the integrated heat across the
34:14top 100 meters of ocean and that is effectively done by restoring natural upwelling because it does mix rather thoroughly all the way to the base of the mixed layer so it's more of an integrated heat profile which is rarely measured which is one reason hurricane intense rapid intensification is not accurately forecast as an example super typhoon rai category 5 was a category 1 until less than 24 hours before its impact to the philippines in december in the last 18 hours the rapid intensification i could tell was coming because
34:55i you could see the warm core eddy that was just to the east of the philippines before impact and i saw the the high uh an anomaly in the mix layer and realized that we had a likelihood of rapid intensification as occurs regularly in the gulf of mexico as well so until the models do a good job of really modeling the integrated heat in the top hundred meters i'm afraid we're going to continue getting these gross mispredictions of the intensity of these events on an increasing basis can i just ask with the um
35:32warming of the oceans that reduces the solubility of carbon dioxide in the oceans um is that being i mean i noticed that in the um during covert we had maybe six or seven percent reduction in uh co2 emissions from burning fossil fuels but that hasn't shown up in the keeling curves and so one of the questions uh that's being asked i was at in vienna last week at the egu meeting where a lot of people were wondering why didn't the keeling curve show as something even a blip uh to related to the reduction in in
36:11fossil fuel emissions and the talk there was that maybe what we've really missed is that the warming oceans are the major factor for steady rise of co2 um as measured in in in the keeling um and i think i'm agreeing with you brian that we've really we've really not got this um surface warming of the oceans modeled correctly i don't know whether what any of you guys think about that we should probably distinguish saturation in the ocean which occurs i believe at much higher levels versus equilibrium
36:47distribution the concentration of co2 in the oceans is somewhere between 1900 and 2300 plus as you go deeper parts per million and um so the equilibrium fractionation of co2 is in equilibrium much higher in the oceans than it is in the atmosphere so you bring up a good point that by changing the temperature of the surface ocean the equilibrium point might be changed as well however there's plenty of room at the bottom as dick feinman like to say and so to the extent we can export that carbon to the deep sea um with
37:29median sequestration times of centuries um then that's a very cold environment and there's a very there's plenty of room for more co2 certainly in the ocean it's a matter of what part of the ocean it's in uh surface or deeper i agree i agree with you there but i just said it's interesting that we haven't seen i mean where else is has that um six or seven percent reduction of fossil fuel uh emissions where does it manifest itself it hasn't manifested itself in the keeling curve it must where else has it gone has it
38:06gone where's it gone or i think methane may be the answer hugh i think the additional methane coming out of the the polar regions uh hasn't been uh recognized as offsetting the lowering of co2 from from covered well before that's not in the killing curve we've had various talks um now various people doing isotopic analysis of where the methane comes from and at this point in time i think while everybody agrees that the methane in the arctic is a is a ticking time bomb right at this point in time
38:42the methane doesn't appear to be coming from the permafrost no it's weapons you don't think the the methane being transformed into co2 wouldn't would would affect no no no not on that time scale um i think the other thing worth mentioning here is that um you're talking about six percent of 50 gigatons uh so let's just call that i don't know probably three three gigatons um and you're you're trying to detect a three gigaton signal on a 1500 gigaton baseline so um that's truly minuscule i question
39:22whether we'd actually see that signal we you can barely see the pinot tubo signal in 1992 to 1994 uh but you can see it as a noticeable dip in the keeling curve but this other signal three over 1500 what does that end up being what's what's the fifth what's the 1500 brian in the atmosphere already 1500 yeah that's committed that's committed warming from from past emissions except that exactly curve does show very very clearly the cyclic up and down annual cyclic up and down from uh um seasons from vegetation from
40:01photosynthesis so right it is responding at a at the right kind of a scale i mean the fact that this isn't astonishing yeah well i mean look at the scale of the um defoliation and the plankton blooming uh i i think that's on the order of tens of gigatons every year it's probably uh and that's that's the key that's the killing oscillation yeah the killing oscillation is probably on the order of 100 gigatons 100 roughly i mean is it too much well uh you know i know that in photosynthesis um it's approaching that quantity so of
40:45co2 equivalent carbon also now so as i did the um uh the the reduction of six percent emissions did that um include wildfires because uh as far as i know there's been a general increase in wildfire activity um recently and that would have obviously led to increased co2 emissions from wildfires but i don't know if that's that's a great point i think between california and australia and british columbia you could probably document many gigatons of emissions making up for the six percent reduction siberia
41:23now stephen salter has wanted to speak for a while so can i um pass on to stephen sorry i i didn't um i don't have anything to say i didn't know where you got that message oh i'm sorry i thought you had your hand up uh uh so we'll go back to serve unless sorry you unless you was uh was was finished okay sev um i didn't want to go through all of all the 16 if there wasn't interesting further explication of them um so um if if there's not um by all means email me privately if you've got
42:02questions or whatever but i i think that's the the paper i've given gives out what i wanted to to to let the group know was potential ideas which would help um i i don't i don't think i've got a great deal more to say what i'd really like to hear about is is um uh what's happening at the ccrc if you could uh give us a bit of an update well is shawn still here i'm literally just about to jump off you so i'm gonna i'm gonna leave them in your more than capable hands and then i'll i'll
42:41uh i'll i'll carry on i'm not going to let you get off that that easily sean headline is look we've got um a number of um you know people who are interested in supporting the activities we've had two master students going this year they're both finishing up right now but we are over the course of the summer tidying up some uh funding arrangements that have been pledged and promised to get um post doc well we got a phd student ongoing at the moment but um at least one post doc and another phd
43:19kicking off in the autumn uh with a lab that we've identified to go and get it doesn't need much work doing to it to be honest to get going on some different experiments than the ones that we'll be doing thus far and in particular we'll be looking at nozzle development in other words looking at different ways of generating droplets of what we think of the right size so stephen we're going to be frankly leaning very heavily on your work because we want to go and test that as a single entity and then multiple entities
43:54over the over the first year um and then also looking at another droplet generation method in tandem with that um and we're working with daniel harrison um sort of guiding instances of what he needs because as i said he's very very open-minded and would actually like to ensure that we in addition to the the experiments he's already done and the license to operate and try stuff out in the field frankly uh just saying you know we've got 200 nozzles or whatever it is on the back of his boat pretty clear that this is not the
44:25optimum not even the right droplet generation method perhaps and therefore let's go and do some thinking get some development work going so really excited about doing this and doing it at pace thank you over to you so also um sean and i are going over to the um uh going over to maine for the gordon conference on on on solar radiation management which is um we're really hoping to evangelize a bit there and try and try and um move move on from talking about all these things and thinking about acting on all these things and i i mean i do um
45:10uh you were saying uh earlier save it might not be your um preferred solution but i think stratospheric aerosol research needs to um uh needs to continue i'm quite happy for that to happen yes um and i i totally agree with you that it's not a in terms of deployment i think all the the derek call them softer options nature based more so i mean not that volcano volcanic eruptions aren't natural but are the things that are likely to to gain public consent uh more easily um yeah let's be let's be pushing those
45:50um more prominently but i suspect and it's just my own personal view on this that when we start looking at the effectiveness of the more acceptable solutions as time runs out as the arctic gets progressively more vulnerable if it's not evolvable enough we may be turning around to um to stratospheric aerosols that would be my prediction but you know my crystal ball is a bit dirty at the moment i haven't um i haven't polished it up recently um and um but i think it's very interesting um again i was at this conference last week
46:35in vienna and um there's not many people there talking about the arctic lasting more than 2040 is about as far as far forward as the the predictions go that's when you talk to people but of course that's not published people don't like to publish this thing because they get into trouble but have a coffee around you know and talk to these people who are doing their predictions yeah well i haven't published my latest results but now the arctic is going to be summarize free sometime in the next 15 to 20 years
47:16what are we going to do about it i'm not sure that um you know biochar is great all these things are great but the arctic is not going to notice that i don't think and it's the albedo issue in the arctic but now we've got comments from john mcdonald and brian sean may have left us now but you can perhaps pick it up look we really do need to bring together the greatest minds around to to sort out the nozzles and the droplets and yourselves and stephen and daniel and that's fantastic you're working together
47:49one other one a bit left field but he's got some great engineers is it worth talking to um james dyson and he said he's a problem solver i mean we need to collaborate is it is it worth having a chat room do you yeah well i have had a chat with him and uh are you good well i don't already know that he um he is we have we've got the dyson building in our engineering department in cambridge and the dyson center um and uh yeah we meet up with him regularly um he's not um he's not close to the idea he's he um
48:29he he listens um but it's it's it's something yeah we're working on it good stuff okay very good yeah it was so pleasing to hear what shawn had to say about the uh collaborative research on on marine cloud brightening very good um brian it's probably worth mentioning in the arctic that some dozen years ago armand neuckermans and i were researching tropospheric aerosols as part of america's climate choices and the point worth mentioning is that tropospheric aerosols have a shorter time scale
49:07but if used appropriately in the arctic could have a fairly rapid effect so um it's a less bet the farm proposition than stratospheric aerosols and it has a smaller effect but also a noticeable effect and the time scale is weeks instead of years for basically resolving the situation so we shouldn't ignore tropospheric aerosols in the arctic to make sure the short life of tropospheric airsource is a very very good advantage it's like having a nice nippy cornering on a racing car compared with a super tanker
49:49it's very very good to be able to stop at short notice what i want to do is to have a whole bunch of satellite observations being fed down to some fleet controllers and they can get a quantum computer or lots of quantum computers which are doing what if predictions so they'll say if you squirt in this particular place of south africa then this will happen on next tuesday and now you've got a really high frequency response which is very very attractive and we the the computer power that you need to do this is going to be here very quickly
50:30it's it's trying to predict what computers can do in even five years time is a mugs game that you can do anything you could possibly conceive of it for almost zero cost in in a few in a few years time so we will be able to decide what to do rather than saying oh i'm stuck with this till next always well i think yes and i would just add to it that even today's computers can do the satellite observations and um you know identify a a response in other words you can measure a response from doing a tropospheric aerosol
51:09intervention and uh that sounds like it would be useful even with today's observational capabilities you you were you speaking trying to speak with uncertainty of prediction so we've got you know we're dealing with the nonlinear system where the you know we know already with weather forecasting that there's only so far you can you can move forward um so whatever we whatever we measure and whatever we have we update our models uh we're still left with the the the the limitations of forecasting with a
51:50non-linear system for about 10 days ahead now and that used to be about 24 hours so that the time at which we can do it is stretching out and you might need maybe 15 days with the next lot of computers right and the point is that if you have a significant enough perturbation with suitable spatial and temporal gradients the signal becomes highly apparent so it's it's a matter of getting enough signal yeah but we're not there yet well it depends on the the scale you know we can make perturbations uh that you can detect um you know by
52:32satellite today evidence ship uh you know ship trails right from exhaust plimbs and other things it's a matter of getting the spatial and temporal gradients high enough and the time scale sure enough you know and i i think is we've got a number of examples of that and it should be on the table in terms of being able to do you know short time scale interventions that are detectable speaking of tropospheric aerosols there's sodium chloride and ferric chloride are there others water itself water droplets
53:06sulfate particles do a quite a job of nucleating condensation nuclei so the traditional even dms and dmso uh naturally uh do contribute towards tropospheric aerosol formation um ammonium sulfate would work as well but there really is an awful lot of sodium chloride already there and so that's really a nice one to use right john listen yeah i just want to do a little defense of stratospheric aerosol injection because if you get north of about 50 degrees north by mid to high latitude it has a short lifetime in the atmosphere
53:53and it's a it's a blanket cooling blanket cooling has great advantages because you can it doesn't interfere with the natural variability and so nobody can kind of uh accuse you of of interfering uh with some something like like the monsoons um so uh and um i i haven't actually managed to find any downsides from this uh if you keep the the time down to two months which you can do by injecting at the right uh altitude um the bruh dobson uh circulation guarantees that the uh that your sa2 will leave the status there and
54:54stop its uh cooling effect pretty quickly when it comes out because it will get washed out if the sulfur has to fall through the the jet stream i don't see how you can predict where it's going to go you will once at once once it's there it'll quickly get um washed out the main alleged downside john is is in a dry place it wasn't going to get washed out until he gets into the troposphere i think you're just completely leaving the jet stream out of it if you look at what the jet stream is doing then you have to assume that
55:34anything that you put in the stratosphere will end up everywhere in the in the hemisphere that you use it may not get into the other hemisphere for a lot for about a lot later but it'll get everything gets to everywhere and you you can look at how uh um cfcs that you reduce releases at ground level gets up into the into the high uh stratosphere now the main the main alleged downside from what john was asking about stratospheric aerosol injection is that it would enable a slower transition away from fossil fuels but
56:16it's it's not really clear to what extent that actually is a downside you know it can we afford to uh to have a slightly slower shift away from fossil fuels um or if we if we apply stratospheric aerosol injection and that that's it's quite a complicated now brian yes well i think it's worth uh having john or others try to do some estimates that if your injection points are north of 50 degrees north latitude how much is lost back to the lower latitudes a couple examples in point are the polar vortex that somehow ended up
56:53over boston midwinter so you could argue at least in the troposphere that you're getting a lot of cooler uh a lot of that uh tropospheric air is moving down at various points with variability associated with the jet stream but having some estimates as to the fraction of losses to the lower latitudes i think would be really helpful i am reminded that the jet stream time scale is around two weeks and the cross hemisphere time scale is around two months in terms of an rc mixing constant it doesn't actually matter if the so2 goes
57:29into the troposphere because it it it does cloud brightening uh before it gets washed out so it will be continuing to cool when it uh leaves the troposphere the idea of putting it into the stratosphere is to prolong its life from an average of a couple of weeks uh to a couple of months right um but if you if you have any left over by the next winter you you're doing it in the wrong direction and i don't see how you can be sure of that you you you i did send around a little note about brewer dobson did people get that
58:10from the way it's measured i will send it out again thanks just um a quick question on uh on john's comment that um there's an advantage in a blanket calling effective um stressor aerosol as opposed to tropospheric aerosol um just wondering as steven as you're there um can you um administer marine colour brightening in such a way as you can ensure it doesn't interfere with natural variability such as the monsoon uh i think you'll be able to control it in a way that makes it the monsoons behaving the way you want in particular
58:58i think you can control the gradient of the temperature across the indian ocean they call the indian ocean dipole and you can move fleets east or west in the indian ocean to steer the monsoons in the way that you want and the there is a paper a long time ago by govinda swanibala who was showing that it was really rather good over the indian subcontinent there was a slight reduction in precipitation that was more than offset by the reduction reduced rate of evaporation but it was really very very small and it looked really quite
59:46there's benign advantage of um doing stratospheric aerosols if you're thinking of doing it the further north you go the less high you have to go to get into the stratosphere and that's that's true but the more dangerous it'll be in in the winter remember cloudy nights are much warmer than clear nights let me finish um so if we're going to start with any experiments the easiest ones to do will be without having to go to such high high altitude sure ultimately that's not probably where you'd want to do them
1:00:21but to begin with if you want to try and get um get stuff done the two benefits of of going further north is that the residence time is shorter and the altitude you have to get to is lower so from a point of view of uh probably acceptability of the experiments and ease of the experiments that's the place to start that would be my thought i agree with you steven it's not the optimum at all including commercial jetliner altitudes yeah so it gets um i mean there's all sorts of uh there's all sorts of
1:00:58all sorts of benefits at that at that altitude and i mean and i think um you know even our wacky idea of having uh tethered balloons which we were doing for our spice project um tethered balloons up at 20 kilometers plus or probably a non-starter but at 10 or 12 kilometers they become viable i reckon um yeah it's a challenge to find the um the critical path i suppose you know to say what are the what other things to do first and uh that will so you know building on the great barrier reef work is great you know and i think it's it's really good
1:01:36that australia has recognized that um coral bleaching requires systemic cooling but that still doesn't get much publicity at all so i mean i think i think we're looking at that is kind of the new the new government and new thinking in australia with slightly rose-tinted spectacles because um the the the new labor government is still pretty right of center and is not is not anytime soon going to be shutting down coal mines it's not anytime soon going to be shutting down coal exports um it's um it's sort of green credentials are i
1:02:20think you know very worthy that it very much wants to um promote a renewable energy uh initiative so get the um connectors going right so that you know the if wind is generated in new south wales it can at least make its way down to victoria and so on and so forth um and i think that the what we've been hearing about the great barrier reef is um well i just want to see what actually happens because i just don't think that the uh the new albanese government is going to welcome uh in coach geo engineering with open arms
1:03:06i think it's going to no they're not there's there's deep community hostility towards geo engineering and you know the myth of decarbonization as the climate solution is uh really the dominant paradigm in the climate action movement and uh so you know this this sort of changed thinking requires a lot of conversation which has barely started brian it's worth noting that uh when it comes to employment there's an opportunity to accelerate uh decarbonization with reduced uh coal operations when
1:03:45by shifting a lot of labor over towards uh solar and wind there's actually an enormous number of domestic jobs to be had and so in a sense by uh doing a massive retraining we can accelerate the reduction in fact if you look at solar installation and as compared to coal operations there's far more employment in solar installation and there's a strong case to be made for a massive retraining program towards renewables that can provide uh reduced disruption and displacement of uh existing communities depending on
1:04:21coal operations for their sustenance so i think there's those kind of programs that could make a rather dramatic uh change if we can help retrain people for other livelihoods that would fit in really well with my sunny scheme proposal which is not my ideas just the integrating lots of other people's ideas and turning uh australia into an energy superpower for the southwest pacific we should be at a power countries from indonesia malaysia singapore in molesting as well as our whole north with our own solar and wind resource
1:05:05taking it by a high voltage direct current lines to these countries well it's a good idea one thing i want to mention there is that um the sun does a fine job of distributing power to many places and there is some significant re research being done presently uh by horizon europe to develop marine solar as a viable approach so i'm fully in favor of building out solar in australia but it may be that we want to ship them solar modules and in fact marine solar assemblies rather than shipping them uh cables because that
1:05:39transmission facility uh commonly costs a dollar per watt and more which is a high cost compared to let's say 20 or 30 cents per watt for solar modules so it could be that some combination of renewable technologies and transmission may provide a good solution that's cost effective agreed there are also waves uh present in all the little islands as well true they work at long wave energy can be useful even for pumping deep sea water and speaking of pumping deep sea water and ocean upwelling in one of the key
1:06:19technology proposals is otec ocean thermal energy conversion what do you think about tech brian at scale it'll work fine i think uh once we do uh find you know larger facilities i think you need on the order of 10 to 15 megawatts uh ocean thermal energy conversion produces minor amounts of electricity uh but copious amounts of deep cool sea water and so uh when we need a lot of deep cool sea water such as for deep water irrigation of seaweed forests in fact at suitable scale ocean thermal energy we view as a 24 7
1:06:55renewable resource so ultimately it should be very promising uh it just and in fact the small amount of electricity produced will do a fine job of managing the um the loads of the platform itself uh and so locally i think it works fine and that's a great way of producing deep cool sea water and actually helping to restore natural upwelling on a regional basis so australia's got two locations where otec could work that's um uh cape york uh adjacent to the uh the deep trench in between um australia and new guinea
1:07:31and australia and solomon islands and uh and also the uh northwest shelf so the uh the continental shelf plunges down to the the timor trench and so uh getting water from a kilometer deep uh on those on the edges of those continental shelves would produce an enormous quantity of uh thermal imbalance that could be used to generate electricity but but then using that cool water for a range of purposes so i'd like to see um that's uh the whole pumping of deep ocean water up upwelling integrated and you know so like you've already got such
1:08:11a big gas industry on the northwest shelf uh like i think that it's it's a uh probably a much better energy source for the northwest shelf than gas i agreed i think there's enormous potential to otec but it will require it's a pretty heavy intensive capital effort and so we're starting with marine solar but look forward to uh developing otec in the years ahead when capital permits good right uh um i had a question for sev if no one else once wants to jump jump in and uh i haven't uh i like i've looked
1:08:49at your work um intermittently over the time i haven't read your latest paper but i'm just interested in um to what extent do you calculate the effectiveness of the different technologies in terms of what's what's of radiative forcing that they could remove like have you looked at that as a quantification uh no i haven't i don't really have the the skills to do that you really need to have a good modeling program and for that you need to have either a good university or else independent funds
1:09:25um well we've got the good university but we don't have the independent funds um the the you can you can tell how much uh uh albedo you can get from ice thickening you can tell how much probably you can get from oil and flakes you can tell how much you can probably get from marine cloud brightening and cetamizers but you need to do the experiments to give you the parameters to feed into the uh the earth systems models to give you the more definitive answers you can do it in a rough way like if you can say uh this technology is suitable
1:10:20over 20 of the world ocean and it it might uh you know cut radiative forcing by so much but watts per uh per square meter or per square kilometer then uh it gives you a rough order of magnitude yeah you you other people have done the calculations and they reckon that with i think the um making the oceans a bit more productive the the dms and the the ocean brightening you get can be of the order of one to two watts per square meter which is enough to offset the warming from most of the historical co2 emissions so it's it's definitely there at scale
1:11:15yeah and i i know uh john nissen has previously previously uh just tried to put all of the different components into this sort of wattage common parameter because uh like there's an argument that the ipcc has uh neglected the radiative forcing benefit of um solar radiation management and so you know if we could um if we could compare like you know what's the what's the impact on radiative forcing of of all of the different options on the table and and then say uh you know public support really should go
1:11:52to the ones that line up best against that metric that would be really great but it needs a fairly solid research program to do that well of course there's all the um all the naysayers who are saying oh we can't do this because of termination shock and we can't do all these things the latest one is that oh you know if we do stratospheric aerosols we do solar radiation management it's going to worsen the effect of a nuclear war and you kind of think this is just going mad um clutching at straws it's it's it's the as the argument for
1:12:32not doing srm because it might worsen the effect of a nuclear war is um you know well i bet not better not take take um you know paracetamol for my toothache because uh if i were to uh to to fall under a bus then well you know it's just the arguments just get so complicated and crazy well the termination shock i'm concerned about is terminating all of the beaches on the planet and i think that that would be much harder to manage than you know terminating all the ports much harder to manage than uh keeping a bit of sulfur going into the air
1:13:15brian uh just following up on a previous note each ppm in the atmosphere is roughly eight gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent the sawtooth of the keeling curve is approximately 5 ppm which corresponds to 40 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent so it is actually a significant sawtooth on the order of the annual emissions by humanity thank you does that say you wouldn't expect to see the uh the the covet blip right so if you take uh six percent of 40 or 50 gigatons it's it's only six percent on the
1:13:56sawtooth so um the sawtooth might drown out the six percent um it it's interesting that the pinatubo had a cooling effect but it also had a significant effect on the killing curve which apparently survived so there was no kind of termination shock on that um it was difficult to see whether there was any kind of termination shock on the temperature because of the where the thing you know the whole thing was drowned out by el ninos coming and going they're um about if we did 10 15 20 years of pinatubo then what we will be doing is
1:14:49is artificially causing lower temperatures and then uh if we suddenly stopped then over a very short time temperatures would dramatically rise we wouldn't cope with i think that's the time but what this gets to with the talk that the paper that i circulated at the start of the meeting is that if we do focus on um albedo enhancement uh that then needs to be backed up with a major program of carbon dioxide removal so that so that that steadily cuts any termination like the the this sort of straw man of saying people are saying uh
1:15:33i just brightened the planet and and uh continued to increase the co2 concentration in the air that's that absolutely won't work you know the co2 concentration methane concentration have to come down but that'll take decades whereas we can brighten the planet in years so that's what we were when we were doing the spice project our mantra was that you don't offer anyone a lung transplant until until they agree to stop smoking yeah yeah very very i don't know i don't think i don't think that i don't think that
1:16:07analogy quite works in the sense that well i mean maybe i'm thinking of it wrong because um people use that to say um sorry i'm trying to work out whether the lung transfer trans transplant equates to thinking about okay john listen yeah well uh there are two things one is a pinatubo effect on co2 has been given various explanations one is that the stratospheric steric aerosol actually enhances uh uh plant growth because it it but you it uh it produces more diffused light which is good for the plants and therefore
1:17:07uh there was an increase in in in primary productivity which had produced that uh reduction in in co2 so so it's it's it's not uh another explanation uh which i've seen uh i think uh is certainly that the the cooling effect actually allowed uh with more um it also the equilibrium of co2 burst in in the ocean versus the atmosphere and resulted in more drawdown and the third one is that there was actually more dust and the dust fertilized the oceans and the oceans productivity went up and absorbed far co2
1:18:05uh and happened those were where the balance is but the overall uh the effect was was very positive from the tuber with the one exception of the um of the ozone hole because well that was something we put up um if it weren't for that um uh the effect of volcanoes is entirely benign and has been for uh millions if not billions of years unless you're in pompeii uh and you've got a nasty little no now we've got 10 minutes to go um i'm i'm keen to hear from brew and mana joe if they if they wish to have any brief
1:18:51comments but brian's got his hand up first just a brief one all this discussion about um getting to uh successing uh smoking is reminding me of the article on the shovel about net zero beer where greg taylor is committed in the shovel.com.eu to get to net zero beer by 2050 uh but and a half zero beer by 2049 but he's going to do all the drinking he can in the meantime so i recommend it for amusing reading the logic is impeccable exactly oh by the way he's gonna get a second fridge for extra beer storage and
1:19:28any day that he doesn't drink before 2050 he could add on to the end of 2050 so it might be 2060 by the time he actually stops of course he'll be 110 years old by then let's zero beer is just a case of how often you pee exactly back to you just added the link to that in um in the chat my only request is a copy of the um is it possible to get a copy of the diagram um that i think robert showed in the beginning i've i've put it on a couple of um discussion boards so if you're on the healthy climate
1:20:16alliance or or this at noack um then you can get it from the email and uh i'll i'll put it on a blog and and link to the blog thank you planetaryrestoration.net now was bro yeah apologies for being late the only things i've got to report is i made an interesting presentation to the worshipful company of glass sellers which was a useful intro into the the the city guilds um and that seems to come back quite strong we've got uh all sorts of discussion going on in relation to that um and interesting though when where
1:20:58glass can help with planetary albedo um although i think one of the things that came out of that was um actually it was going to be really helpful from the point of view of bioreactors and vertical farming which they hadn't sort of woken up to um there was also a lot of discussion about um [Music] net zero glass production and um you know how one can actually run a glass furnace um electrically and they're having some success with biofuels but here's another call on biofuels i think the solution that we we
1:21:39came around to talking about was um possibly using small modular nuclear reactors to take it up to about 800 degrees and then just use the biofuel to to top it up to get up to 1005 um and um so that was that that was star cool stuff um the way around it the other thing we did this last week was we had a really interesting session with inter-brand and interbrand who world's biggest branding companies are working with some of the global players trying to rebrand climate change and so was able to feed some messaging into
1:22:19that uh i attended a um focus group where they had about 28 people my takeaways from that was general populous ignorance level was incredibly high um as possibly was the ignorance level amongst the people who were running the focus group uh in terms of just just how much trouble we're in the second one was the real enthusiasm for anybody talking about solutions some ways people get sensibly involved so we we came by saying it's all very well to wave sticks at people but we need an awful lot of character at the
1:22:59same time if if people are going to react positively to the messages so actually getting out there and saying more about some of these solutions important and ways that people might get involved important and the obvious way of course is getting out there getting people involved in funding some of these solutions so you know there was some links into some crowdfunding opportunities and of course we had all the links into the guys at the um just carbon um which is a a crypto link to the garden markets and particularly linked to um
1:23:38the seafields project which uh brian you know um but uh yeah seb stephen seems to be uh rounded up a really good team and they seem to be quite well funded so uh you know all for promoting that uh i have pushed your um boiling flakes as an adjunct to that serve quite hard great thanks so um yeah that's but that's positive more more more as i learn more of the next few weeks so we've got a few minutes to go um could i suggest we go back to sev to a recap on on his uh inputs but can i just say one thing
1:24:20about what bruce has said here we we one one of the most prominent sort of nature campaigners and climate people these days that people respect is um attenborough and when when sir david king was talking to him about climate repair this is what he said and uh it's exactly that possibility that has been invented he he is very keen on the idea of hey look here's a solution yeah and i think that's exactly what you're saying isn't it right peru absolutely absolutely um you know solutions are all important in fact the time ago when i
1:25:04was standing in trafalgar square talking to extinction rebellion um yeah i realized that they were all out there saying do something and we're not happy politicians and such like uh but they had no answers and when i started talking answers and talking about all the things that could be done uh you know it was really well received they didn't start throwing eggs at me and telling me to get off um you know that there is there's a real thirst for that sort of information right well um to to summarize uh
1:25:39my stuff a bit the the the most important is the is the ones which can do the the albedo stuff with a bit of cdr as well and therefore and the ones which have got the greatest potential to have the soonest effect would be um three of them first of all the boyd flakes which the the indian government and and cambridge are working working on secondly the the um the mcb stuff which in my my side of things is the the setomizers and dan harrison's work to get it done to get it shown out out in the world and the third one
1:26:30is the the sunny scheme which allows for natural gas to be split into for allows the natural gas to become a carbon zero fuel so the the big gas companies can keep on pumping gas and collecting it from the arctic ocean and that but they use renewable energy to split it into blue-green hydrogen for the hydrogen economy and into various nano-carbon products which you can make lots of good things from so that's the that's where i put the my emphasis on getting action acceptable action done most quickly and most effectively and
1:27:22redeemed pretty darn safely as long as we trust the uh the fossil fuel industry to to to do what they say they're going to do i mean it's it if if things take longer than they say what then they expect i mean to if if hydro if the hydrogen economy moves forward but the co2 is is still pumped out into the atmosphere because oh we haven't got around to doing that bit yet um well we hold their features of fire on that then we say no you can't bump this you can't pump this natural gas unless you know uh
1:28:08an increasing fraction of it is split into into hydrogen and nanocarbon but also they need to address their fugitive emissions which is just massive so uh we've reached the end of our our time together and uh i'll just take the last chance of any final comments before we close the meeting just to say that i'm about to step outside and stare up in the sky and see if by any chance we catch the tail end of that uh meteor shower that's supposed to potentially happening mainly in the northern states but
1:28:39we might get some here in the uk a bit cloudy here i'm afraid i got a few stars so i'm not for it very good all right well uh we'll close at that point i thank you all uh very much for joining and uh hope to see you again soon thank you robert thanks all right all right thanks rob uh brian can can you just hang on for a sec sure thing i'll just end the recording