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00:04 | greetings everyone it's lovely to see you I hope you have had um a good few weeks since we last met uh I am introducing our well-known colleague uh Robert tulip to talk today about um faith and and religion as it relates to climate change so I sent out a biography of Robert even though we know him well and I'm putting it again in the chat for you to review but without further Ado I'm going to turn this over to Robert thank you very much Suzanne and uh thanks everyone for joining uh the uh discussion today it's a it's a |
00:50 | controversial topic religion and climate change and it's something that I've I've been interested in for a long time so I'm just going to speak for half an hour uh just setting out my own perspectives and then uh uh in turn the meeting over to to just a broad conversation about issues that that come up so as I uh as I said in the um uh in the note that was uh circulated U religion has an ambiguous relationship with climate science on the one hand conventional religion tends to promote comforting Escapist emotional fantasies |
01:27 | and as a result has a um a negative role um and um and and um deflecting uh attention from the pragmatic problems of a warming planet and enabling the spread of harmful myths but on the other hand the religious hope for salvation of the world can be seen in a positive and a pragmatic way we can ask how we can foster the future flourishing of humanity um achieving a goal of sustained peace and prosperity would require us to reverse the current tra trajectory towards civilizational collapse due to warming and instead |
02:09 | create a vision of a planetary transformation toward a stable and orderly world so religious framing of central moral values of Truth and Love And Justice can help us to build a brighter World physically culturally emotionally if these values can be grounded in Practical reform over long-standing research interest in the relationship between Christianity and ex existential philosophy and that has led me to The View that heretical forms of Christianity can offer vital insights supporting strategic response to the |
02:44 | climate climate emergency that can give an ethical priority to science my presentation covers some material I will discuss in a paper to the 14th International Bon Hofer Congress in January 2024 on how the thought of the Theologian dric Bon Hofer can support effective strategies to mitigate climate change the role of religion in forming cultural identity and ethical values can have a positive influence on public opinion about climate change religious narratives aim to build a compelling shared vision of meaning and purpose and |
03:22 | Direction such religious narratives can only be effective in promoting good policy if they Co if they Co here with scientific understanding aiming to Foster dialogue and cooperation between people with conflicting viewpoints working towards shared understanding teachings that build upon religious Traditions can leverage climate action by helping to inform the public about how the urgency of climate response and the required priorities support their traditional moral concerns one example of how religious narratives can be constructed dtive is a |
04:01 | shift of the concepts of heaven and hell away from the old literal myths of afterlife toward a vision of possible future planetary scenarios with Heaven as the ideal goal and hell as the worst outcomes that is arguably how the concepts of Heaven and Hell were first intended before the meaning was corrupted by popular literal traditions um such a constructive scientific reform of religion faces strong barriers much religious practice is conservative personal and emotional with little interest in the coherence and |
04:45 | consistency that are demanded by science as a result modern scientific perspectives tend to regard religion as outmoded and irrelevant equally the difficulty of taking on board the latest scientific knowledge means that religious views on climate change are often superficial and incoherent secular culture often sees religion as having no useful contribution to public policy including on CH climate change due to the need to separate church and state and the observation that religious dogmas often conflict with scientific evidence with |
05:23 | about 40% of Americans supporting the untrue beliefs of young Earth creationism there's a sharp social polarization of religion and science notably in the US but also in other countries this social divide flows through Into Climate policy conservative religious views are a barrier to understanding the empirical data that explains global warming and what can be done about it this is partly due to the cognitive split that religions promote between spirit and nature imagining human identity in a supernatural and |
05:58 | miraculous way rather than a natural context the progressive political Community is mostly dubious about religion because of the perceived moral and epistemic failures of Supernatural views there are progressive forms of religion but these are not widely known or supported steady decline in religious adherence in many countries can partly be attributed to the failure of religion to present a coherent ethical story on the pressing existential concerns raised by emerging issues such as global warming this situation of polarized |
06:35 | contempt between secular and religious communities makes it hard to engage in constructive dialogue opposing ideological camps deplore each other creating tribal hostility that flows through into partisan Politics the ongoing popularity of Donald Trump among conservative Evangelical Christians validates their denial of global warming contrary to all scientific evidence climate denial is a form of mythological thinking that contributes to the danger faced by the world reinforcing the inability to respond effectively to |
07:11 | climate risks alongside these criticisms of religion a similar incoherence also appears in secular opinions about climate indicating that a lack of rationality is a broader feature of human psychology there's a strong face that Progressive ideology offers no good answers on how to reverse global warming it's becoming clear that the consens of that the consensus Progressive policy of emission reduction alone cannot prevent dangerous climate change despite this emerging critique the popular climate movement vests its |
07:52 | hopes in the belief that the only way to mitigate warming is confrontation with fossil fuel interests to to phase out the use of hydrocarbons this belief termed emission reduction alone is arguably also a form of mythological thinking that is as irrational as religious myths or climate denial one of the key Progressive myths is the belief that the policy of emission reduction alone is entirely scientific despite critics pointing to massive practical problems the Progressive consensus wrongly jumps from the true observation that the science is |
08:35 | settled on the causes of global warming to the wrong assumption that the science is equally settled on what we can do about it the strength of mythological reasoning reflects How Deeply religious thought patterns are seated in human psychology with Collective delusions proving very durable and attractive I argue that overcoming this mythological thinking is essential to opening rational dialogue about climate and that heretical thinking in Christian history provides some useful models to help understand the problem the Rival camps in the political |
09:16 | contest over climate change both have their mythologies there's the false view that global warming is a hoax and that confronts the equally dubious belief that shutting down fossil fuel FS should be the main climate priority I believe there's scope to build Bridges across these social divides through a new look at both the content of religion and the content of climate science firstly it's important to understand why the progressive consensus on emission reduction alone is wrong the US Energy Information Administration recently |
09:53 | projected that Global CO2 emissions in the energy sector will be 15% higher in in 2050 than now up from the current 35.7 gatons to 41 gatons of CO2 emissions per year there's slim chance of holding emissions to current levels let alone cutting them to Net Zero fighting against this vast economic and political momentum for ongoing emissions is difficult possibly even futile holding out hope for net zero emissions by 2050 requires a mythological psychology in the face of strong evidence that this goal is not possible |
10:42 | without economic collapse efforts to speed up decarbonization can't achieve anything close to the ipcc goal of harving emissions by 20130 the materials the funds the permissions the skilled personnel to transform the energy sector at this pace are simply not available and the proponents uh significantly underestimate the costs and the risks the power of fossil fuel interests in economics politics and culture will easily outweigh efforts to enforce emission cuts that go beyond what is commercially viable this means as Sultan |
11:24 | aljaba said at cop 28 there's no realistic scenario where phase out of fossil fuels can keep warming below 1.5° James Hansen has gone further arguing that even the 2° uh Celsius goal is dead if policy is limited to emission reductions and plausible CO2 removal another another myth in scientific and popular thinking about emissions concerns the committed warming from past emissions radiative forcing is the technical measure of global warming and is caused by the whole Quantum of carbon dioxide that Humanity has added |
12:06 | to the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution over two trillion tons of CO2 somebody seeking to enter um and uh just uh a small proportion of CO2 has converted into stable non-w chem chemistry but most of that 2 trillion tons is still causing warming whether it's in the atmosphere or in the ocean this radiative forcing would continue even under net zero emissions slowly bringing temperature and sea level up to restore Earth system equilibrium decarbonizing the economy can only marginally slow the increase of |
12:53 | radiative forcing and can do nothing about committed warming an emission reduction alone policy would allow the massive loss and damage caused by committed warming to continue while also allowing the profound security Peril of a phase shift into a planetary Hot House failing to start any cooling until temperature reaches a dangerously high level with unpredictable system impacts and tipping points so if decarbonizing is marginal to slowing temperature rise that does not mean that climate action is impossible to actually mitigate |
13:32 | global warming a complete paradigm shift is needed recognizing that sunlight reflection methods are the main way to prevent climate collapse while removal of greenhouse gases gradually develops alongside ongoing emissions hopefully slower ongoing emissions with NASA data showing that the world is now darkening by more than 1% per decade sunlight reflectivity or albo is an urgent climate climate priority albo can become a far more tractable and effective climate lever than carbon albo Technologies such as Marine Cloud re |
14:10 | brightening mirrors to enhance Earth reflectivity and eventually stratospheric stratospheric aerosol injection all offer potential for fast safe cheap and effective climate responses subject to Scientific review the underlying message is that the primary climate policy goal should shift from net zero emissions to Net Zero heating unfortunately the belief that the world economy could rapidly decarbonize is impossible however the ipcc uses the hope for Rapid action toward net zero emissions as a reason to ignore or even |
14:50 | ban solar geoengineering this creates an immense opportunity cost in the foregone economic e ological social benefits of a global focus on increasing sunlight reflection the failure to slow warming due to this refusal to implement effective policies is leading to avoidable rise in extreme weather sea level biodiversity loss and the systemic disruptions caused by heat that all puts the refusal to examine brightening options into a highly negative moral light in view of the potential of sunlight reflection to mitigate these |
15:30 | damaging effects of climate change a prominent scientific article co-authored by David Keith calculated that a proper scientific research program on Solio engineering could avoid climate damage costing 5,000 times as much as the research that's a benefit cost ratio of 5,000 to1 and yet this whole topic continues to be largely ignored twisted or mocked in mass media in science and in politics in a syndrome of mass delusion the scale of suffering that could be mitigated by higher albo is immense our children will wonder why we |
16:10 | have been so slow to act the cognitive disarray in current climate policies is simply stunning to behold it seems no one in Authority cares about action to actually cool things down despite the obvious problems of increasing heat without higher albo it's highly probable that tipping points will completely swamp all carbon-based mitigation only albo increase through sunlight reflection can actually mitigate the immediate effects of warming the claim that cutting emissions can mitigate climate change is like |
16:47 | imagining a 1ot high Levy wall could protect could prevent a 20ft flood the false claim that decarbonization could mitigate climate change has become an Orthodoxy but it involves an orwellian misuse of language the use of the term mitigation as a synonym for emission Cuts is false and deceptive creating false hope and should cease by contrast higher albo could readily mitigate climate change by reducing temperature working as a planetary tonic a rapid emergency protective response while the slower actions to fix the carbon problem are |
17:33 | addressed restricting climate policy to emission reduction alone is like a hospital refusing surgery to a heart attack victim and instead telling them to improve their diet and exercise effectively leaving them to Die the sudden spike in World temperature in 2023 and events such as the collapse of Antarctic sea ice show that current climate policy IES often offer no hope of working and are actually exposing the world to severe and unacceptable dangers and security risks even though workable Alternatives exist the risk to the planetary climate |
18:14 | is apocalyptic in scale described widely as a sixth planetary Extinction event creating a reasonable comparison to religious mythologies of apocalyptic collapse a growing body of opinion known as dummer ISM holds that the collapse of modern civilization is inevitable because of the willful blindness of humanity to the need for action on climate change I reject the Der of view that nothing can be done action to brighten the planet can be an effective response providing the triple benefit of a physically brighter and more more |
18:48 | reflective climate an intellectually brighter understanding of the real planetary situation and an emotionally brighter mood about hopes for a better future essentially brightening the planet can be the starting point for a broader paradigm shift in our Global relationship to our planet but this shift has to be properly sequenced it's not possible to to deliver climate Justice when the physical precondition of a stable climate has not yet been achieved through restoration of albo how then could religion make a |
19:26 | productive contribution to addressing the climate crisis it has first to be recognized that religion needs to accept a natural scientific worldview to usefully engage on climate policy the magical Supernatural thinking that dominates prevailing religion is of no help except to the extent that its stories provide metaphors for scientific understanding a starting point in shifting to a natural perspective on religion is is to consider the definition of religion the meaning of religion linguistically the words religion and ligament share the same |
20:08 | Latin origin which means bind or connect so our ligaments connect the bones of our skeleton and similarly the ideal original purpose of religion is to connect people together with a unified story like how our ligaments connect our body obviously religion often fails in this goal of bringing people together due to problems of corruption and delusion but this ideal of connectedness is important to understand as a basis for systematic thinking about moral concerns the theme of connection is Central to Christianity in several ways |
20:49 | the Bible imagines God as Manifest in the interconnectedness of all reality permeating the whole universe the story of the incarnation of God in Jesus Christ is traditionally imagined as holding the universe together texts that support this connecting theme include Romans 1:20 that says God's invisible qualities are clearly perceived in things John 1 the word became flesh uh Colossians 1:17 in Christ all things hold together Hebrews 13 Christ upholds the universe by his word of power this theme of divine connectivity itself has a mythological |
21:34 | context yet it also generates systematic approaches to theology that can challenge the popular mythologies in religion the idea that everything is connected supports a holistic integration of the Sacred and the secular through a scientific understanding of how human culture is embedded in natural planetary ecology the biblical concept of divine grace is a powerful metaphor for the stability of intact ecological systems in a state of grace everything is connected in balance and Harmony whereas disrupted ecosystems |
22:16 | are in a state of corruption and decline that leads in turn to an understanding of Salvation in secular historical terms of restoring a state of grace meaning planetary transformation through values of Truth love and Justice rather than just seeing salvation as the conventional religious belief in individual afterlife one of the most dramatic but little known biblical texts that emphasizes this theme of interconnectedness of nature is revelation 11:18 it says the wroth of God will destroy those who destroy the |
22:58 | Earth this can be understood to mean that the sanctity of natural ecosystems and the fragility and sensitivity of the Earth are primary concerns of God and that the ancient complexity of nature is intrinsically good and sacred this biblical connection between Divine wroth and ecological collapse aligns directly with the emerging understanding of the fragility of the planet climate using this metaphor of divine wroth to depict the impact of the collapse of natural ecosystems the flip side of this idea of divine anger at human destruction is the |
23:42 | teaching of Jesus in the Beatitudes that the meek will inherit the earth at Matthew 5:5 this can be read to see salvation in ecological terms seeing wild nature as the epitome of w of meekness in this world of human domination this metaphor of divine wroth and nature suggests a close connection between the biblical idea of God and the emerging scientific understanding of the Gaia Theory the observation that the complex nature of the earth system functions like a single organism maintaining the stability of the |
24:22 | biosphere through interconnected feedback mechanisms this stability known as homeo stasis is robust until the pressures become too extreme or too sudden and the system collapses just like the human body Earth system fragility may be sensitive to smaller impacts than we easily imagine smaller than the risk of tipping points getting triggered by adding a few trillion tons of CO2 to the air Gia Theory observes how the biosphere functions as a self regulating system system capable of maintaining conditions suitable for life as our |
25:03 | world economy destroys the Earth we are creating the risk of the collapse of planetary homeostasis allowing our planetary home to Fall From Grace turning our Heavenly Home into a living hell the connectivity of all things is also a central tenant of Eastern religion the Hindu philosophy of the connection between each individual thing and the whole universe finds expression in the causal doctrines of Karma and the cycle of life these Traditions teach that all is one and that our Earth is part of the cosmos while Karma has a superstitious |
25:43 | meaning in the doctrine of reincarnation it can also be understood in purely scientific terms of cause and effect for example in the impact of trauma newer scientific ideas about religion also promote the concept of causal connectivity notably Einstein's view that the beauty and Order of the universe are worthy of our reverence and awe through admiration of the elegant mathal mathematical structures of nature revealed by science seeing the earth's climate as a complex adaptive system is the focus of the writings of our hpac colleague do Dr |
26:22 | Robert Chris who's on this call in his book systems theory for geoengineering policy this systems idea that everything is connected is Central to enabling us to think on a planetary global scale this theme also found expression in the opening speech at cop 28 by King Charles where he said unless we rapidly repair and restore Nature's unique Economy based on Harmony and balance which is our ultimate sustainer our own economy and survivability will be imperal King Charles went on to say we need to remember too that the indigenous |
27:01 | worldview teaches us that we are all connected not only as human beings but with all living things and all that sustains life as part of this Grand and and sacred system harmony with nature must must be maintained for King Charles to describe harmony with nature in this Way shows how a a sense of reverence for systemic natural complexity can support moral values that see our integration with nature as Central to our Salvation his invocation of indigenous spiritual perspectives on interconnectedness is Central to this |
27:50 | emerging religious philosophy offering a moral critique of the exploitative human centered selfishness that still dominates our consumer Society interestingly sunlight reflection can only be effective as a cooling method if it has strong Global governance Arrangements requiring just the sort of Global Connections that King Charles calls for cop 28 faith for climate call to action also F focused on the theme of interconnection saying our common values Inspire and unite us in our efforts to combat the human-made climate crisis and |
28:31 | to nurture the sacredness and well-being of all life on Earth love for our world and for each other and awareness of our interconnectedness underpin our understanding and our commitment to Urgent action similar themes were expressed by Pope Francis in his 2015 encyclical on the climate crisis L calling for an integral ecology that would care equally for humanity and for nature grounded in Christian faith the importance of these ideas is in finding a middleway between the heedless consumerism of mass society and the |
29:12 | misanthropic science that views Humanity as a plague creating inevitable apocalyptic collapse the upshot of these religious themes is that addressing the challenge of sustaining planetary peace and prosperity for 8 billion people in ways that can protect and enhance biodiversity requires focus on ethical values that have been Central to religion and theology the work of the radical German Theologian dri Bon Hofer is immensely helpful in casting light on the moral problems in climate and ecology Dr Bon Hofer was a Lutheran Pastor who was |
29:53 | executed by the Nazis in 1945 for plotting to kill Hitler he's celebrated for putting the story of Jesus Christ at the center of his theology in ways that engage with secular philosophy a key part of this Outlook was his critique of the individualism of the modern world Bon Hofer argued that the priority given to personal autonomy in modern culture had allowed a collapse of community and of the social dialogue needed to build shared understanding grounding this social dialogue in the biblical story of Christ was for Bon Hofer a way to ensure |
30:33 | a responsible moral Vision he explored this goal in the context of existential philosophy using Martin heger's observation that human existence is intrinsically relational a a relational philosophy starts from the observation that we're always living with other people immersed in a world of shared care and concern concern and connection it's only secondary that we are the is isolated doubting individuals as posited by the scientific worldview this relational perspective from Bon Hofer can bring some essential themes Into |
31:15 | Climate debate looking looking at global warming against the gospel story of Christ offers some useful insights without allowing the supernatural content of conventional fa to detract from its contemporary meaning one important area is how Christianity presents history with a grand sweeping Vision seeing the world as on a trajectory of decline that requires a global paradigm shift to reverse to create a trajectory of ascent the political paral paralysis in the face of global warming presents this syndrome of cultural decline in an |
31:55 | advanced state Bon hofer's writings suggest a clash between rival visions of Faith the Imperial faith of Christendom gives priority to using religion for social control through what bonhof called cheap Grace the contrasting vision of the Messianic faith of the gospels especially The Sermon on the Mount imagines how our world could be transformed through shared spiritual values of Truth love and Justice imp iial faith is sending us to Hell whereas Messianic Faith could build heaven on Earth Bon Hoffer's engagement with |
32:36 | secular philosophy and politics led him to hold views about God and religion that some conservative Christians would see as radical as we look at how Faith Can engage constructively on climate policy it's useful to consider how views initially seen as marginal are often eventually recognized as true in this I have in mind heretical forms of Christianity that can give an absolute priority to evidence and logic as moral principles just as Christianity has its Orthodoxy and its Heretics so too climate science has produced fundamental |
33:15 | clashes between insiders and Outsiders especially around geoengineering which is now almost totally excluded from formal consideration by governments in both religion and climate PS completely mythical beliefs can quite easily gain popular support when they engage with what people earnestly want to be true the science is clearly settled on the causes of climate change but not on what can be done about it one interesting example of a heretical belief in biblical scholarship is the argument that Jesus Christ was an |
33:50 | entirely fictional character a very challenging view that completely contradicts Orthodox faith faith at a similar world scale to how calls for Al alido enhancement contradict the Orthodox climate dogma of emission reduction alone although it's mainly Advanced by non-christians the Christ myth Theory could also offer a basis to reform Christianity to become compatible with science in a way that remains supportive of Christian faith Scholars such as Dr Richard carrier have shown that the historical Jesus described in |
34:26 | the gospels is basically absent from the Epistles of Paul and that the story of Jesus of Nazareth comes from a single Source the gospel of Mark Jesus differs from other famous historical individuals who generally have multiple independent lines of evidence for their existence and are not embedded in a miraculous backstory other research has found Cosmic motifs in the gospels indicating Jesus was invented on a stellar blueprint as a personification of the sun based on observation of procession of the Equinox such heretical ideas are |
35:03 | shocking and unacceptable to Conventional Christianity which sees the real H historical existence of Jesus as a Cornerstone of Faith the idea that the whole Jesus story could be an invention is usually rejected out of hand yet it's a strongly argued and coherent scholarly line of thinking the implication for climate policy is in what these observations suggest about the psychology of mass delusion and the power of imagination if it's true that Jesus was invented it's astounding that this fact could have been so successfully |
35:40 | concealed by the church most people today view this as unbelievable yet the syndrome of motivated reasoning where people believe what they want to believe and disregard the rest is well documented although not on such an audacious scale the human mind is wired to accept comforting emotional fantasies rather than unwelcome facts this syndrome gives grounds for suspicion about popular views on climate change as with Jesus hope is more powerful than evidence as the basis for belief in the power of emission reduction it's obvious |
36:19 | that climate denial is a mythological fantasy since it's so easily debunked by facts but the net zero story is far more complex given that it's broadly supported by the scientific Community whose core values are meant to be evidence and Logic the idea that the world must rapidly decarbonize as the top priority plays into the psychology of emotional comfort as a source of Hope to overcome the despair that people naturally feel about the prospect of a climate apocalypse and as a way to interpret climate change as a struggle |
36:55 | of good against evil these motivations are religious in nature and therefore are resistant to Scientific evidence that questions their basis I would like to see the hope that people vest in decarbonizing transfer to rebrightening as a more scientific and practical response to Global Warming able to gain broader support once it receives serious scientific assessment that's not at all to criticize the need for cutting emissions just to put the carbon problem on a realistic and pragmatic time frame and sequence otherwise the problem is that |
37:31 | by setting an unfeasible goal the end result will be far worse because key intermediate steps in the critical cooling path will be missed and essential time will be lost to squabbling and inaction the first step to re brighten the planet should be in my view to aim for deployment of marine Cloud brightening for example Australia could easily do this within its National Waters or in adjacent international waters in ways that would not affect any other countries but would demonstrate the high value of cooling to conclude |
38:06 | human psychology rests strongly upon mythological reasoning even within supposedly scientific arguments about climate policy this observation gives reason to see the call for a narrow focus on emission reduction as a quasi religious myth it's important to respect religious psychology as it often contains deeper truths beneath an inaccurate surface story at the same time it's essential to open dialogue to explore how the objectives can actually be achieved in this case ensuring the livability of our planet the strong |
38:47 | scientific case for brightening the planet indicates the need for a paradigm shift in climate policy to research how increasing planetary albo could stabilize the climate thank you thank you Robert I'm sure you've invoked a lot of of curiosity and comment so I'm going to ask folks to raise their hands uh if they have a a question or a comment um that they'd like to make and um I might also start us off with um a question that you've you've posited a lot with a lot of biblical reference |
39:36 | and a long history of the psychology of uh religious thought and belief um and I'm wondering in terms of putting the two together um the uh message that you're advocating uh and the direction that you're advocating what would that sound like what would the narrative be and who would it be targeted to to um transition um the mindset to a different place that's willing to accept climate denial okay I I see the target audience as um people who are uh essentially perplexed about the um weirdness of the |
40:28 | of the climate debate you know why is it that we we have this um assumptions that just don't seem to be offering any any Prospect of of fixing the problem and uh C is it useful to to think about the the philosophical presuppositions the the underlying assumptions that uh that lead us to a popular conclusion and and so that thinking through the uh the philosophy as it relates to theology psychology uh can uh uh just generate a better strategic understanding of the situation so um I I think it's quite difficult to engage with uh climate |
41:20 | deniers except to the extent that I think that there's uh I mean my my sense is that the prospect of Rapid decarbonization is really quite remote and and that's something that climate deniers uh see as as just obvious you know they they say you know our fossil fuel economy is so vast and uh such so Central to our prosperity that um just shutting it down you know cutting emissions in half by 2030 as the UN proposes is just laughable and so if uh if it's possible to say okay we can have a more gradual transition path that that |
42:04 | accepts a slower shift away from fossil fuels while actually fixing the heat Problem by uh geoengineering that's that's not to uh Place geoengineering as a substitute for emission reduction it's simply to combine them to integrate them on a realistic uh trajectory so so it's I think there are audiences there both in both conservative and in Progressive communities okay thank you we have uh Robert Chris whom you referenced in your presentation so let's see what Robert has to say and ask well first of all |
42:47 | thank you very much for referencing me in your presentation um I'm I'm honored that you did so um and I really just to make the observation that the the the comment about complex adaptive systems which I have talked about before I think in in this group uh allows totally it totally encompasses um much of what you've spoken about so you know I'm not going to talk now about the the the climate science I think we're all broadly on the same page with that on that um and although I am certainly not |
43:18 | of a religious disposition I entirely recognize the role that uh religion has can play and indeed does play uh in both positive and negative ways much like any other element of the human system uh where um things operate um in in in in a variety of different forms and the the the magic of complex adaptive systems is that the interactions between the various elements and the elements are not just the human beings the elements are the human beings and all of the things that with which we engage they both both um |
43:57 | living things and inorganic things um the the things that emerg from these interactions are quintessentially unpredictable and they are then selected by some uh what's referred to as an autonomous process so that some of them are just simply rejected as being useless and others are promoted and enhanced and become built into the system and that's how systems develop and move forward and I think much of what you've said Robert um with regard to the potential for uh religious thinking to contribute in a |
44:30 | positive way to the dilemmas that the Dilemma that humanity is currently facing is you know I think it's it's brilliant I mean I have no issue with it at all and one needs to encourage that uh I'm not qualified to do that but you know to the extent that there are those out there and you mentioned many in your talk um that that that absolutely should be encouraged so yeah I'm totally behind that so I just want to make one other what I think is a correction you said that um you referred to the doomsters uh whose view was that |
45:04 | you know nothing I think what you said was nothing uh that nothing can be done now I have to say that I do classify myself as a doomster but I don't classify myself as a doomster because I don't think that anything can be done in fact quite the contrary I think an awful lot can be done I'm a doomster because I don't think that we will actually do it because we we don't have the wit put it bluntly to get our together to make it happen at now at the speed and scale that's necessary and that's that's why |
45:37 | I'm a doomster not because I don't think we don't have the solutions we got we've never been short of things that we could do that would be hugely effective but we have now just run out a road and I think that's the problem and I think that uh uh whilst I am totally on side with the uh with the science as you've described it this evening and the need for Al albino enhancement and the and the prospect that albino enhancement has to um uh to to steady the ship so to speak um whilst we migrate to a a non uh |
46:11 | fossil fuel economy over decades I agree it isn't going to happen overnight uh I just can't see how that can happen quickly enough for us to be ahead of the Tipping Point curve and that's why I'm a doomster not because I don't think it can happen but because I think it won't happen so I'll leave it with that but a great talk a really really excellent talk thanks well thank you very much Robert and I I as I say you know I think that your uh work on complex adaptive systems uh offers some really valuable |
46:44 | uh philosophical insight into the whole climate problem and I find it interesting to put it into this sort of uh religious context of uh interconnectivity of of everything and uh and so um I suppose I think that there's the potential for religion to engage a mass audience uh which uh I think has got the potential to uh to create um Sudden Change and like you know obviously you know here we are talking among ourselves with 15 people um but uh I I've think that if uh if some of these sorts of debates could get |
47:25 | into the mass media then uh there's the potential for uh for sudden shifts of thinking because I suppose I I see um uh public policy in a sort of tectonic way you know that the uh the Subterranean pressures uh build up invisibly uh over a long period of time and then you get a sudden earthquake where it you suddenly the whole situation is just transformed um and uh that's uh that's what I think is um is coming with climate change because I found the the strangeness of the of the cop 28 uh really quite |
48:07 | bizarre and um the uh so um the uh uh the ability to open up a conversation about you know why is it so strange like I just find that that you know these sorts of uh conversations are just completely excluded from uh from public View and you know I'd love to be able to to speak in the media about these sorts of things uh and you know just finding a way to do so coherently I I really value to the opportunity to share with with this audience to uh to uh to get uh uh to try to get my ideas in a more coherent frame and and test them out and |
48:48 | um yeah so I I do think that the there's the prospect for uh for sudden shift um in psychology and politics um that can overcome the U the risk of of collapse thanks Robert can I just come back with on on that very briefly I don't dispute uh that there is the potential for that kind of uh Paradigm Shift where you get a sudden realization oh my God we've got it wrong we've got to do something differently and uh the thinking that people like us and others have done kind of presents the solutions if you like or |
49:25 | the actions on a PL this is what we've got to do right let's go and do it and that can happen very suddenly my issue is actually at a very much more sort of pragmatic scale that in order to realize that to operationalize it at scale and at the speed that I think is now necessary just the the Materials Handling the the the the engineering capacity you know just the sheer physical scale of the infrastructure that needs to be constructed in the time that is likely to be available that I just find that really daunting and I'm |
50:01 | not at all convinced that it is feasible well I think that the speed that U vaccines were developed for covid is a good model for how uh the the speed of for example deployment of marine Cloud brightening could be uh could be achieved and I I think that uh Jim Hansen's description of marine Cloud brightening as the most innocuous way to introduce Cooling is really valuable because um it's it's something that could be uh done real you know uh Chuck a uh you know uh Chuck $20 million at it and uh we'd be uh doing it straight away |
50:38 | and uh and that could then provide a demonstration effect to the public of the uh of the value of it and you know opening up Concepts like cooling return on investment as things that that offer a serious challenge to our conventional climate thinking thanks Robert let's uh if if you don't let's go on to to Ron and Aria Ron you're R thank you thank you Suzanne thank you Robert uh yeah I I I I I I enjoyed your talk uh uh and uh I'm I'm I mean I I I was also sort of taken by philosophy when I was young and uh and eventually |
51:19 | gravitated to you know other things but um uh I think the you know I think we can obvious on the climate front I think we're we're all pretty much on the same page as Robert said at least in in this group as far as I know um on the on the on the issue of religion though I think the the it I I see it as as a cultural uh Pathway to reach people and to uh to to reach people in a positive way both for Progressive change and for uh you know social political change change for for climate struggle for you know there there are multiple examples |
52:00 | of religion playing a positive role in various struggles social struggles and uh and that and that's for the good the the problem of course and and it may be more obvious here in the US is in Australia because we we have a big religious problem here and uh the problem is that you know the the the methodology of religion is is premodern you know it's not based on evidence and reason it's based on you know in u u the the wisdom of the of the Holy Bible the holy book or the the ancient uh you know priests uh and it tends to be very |
52:38 | hierarchical and very very sort of uh it becomes a barrier to to reason and evidence and that's you know I think you know if what your talk kind of reminds me I have a friend who uh is is a is a radical feminist and she she she she claims she's is a uh a fairly Orthodox Jew uh and I and she picks out these these uh these parts of the Bible that she says support feminism I said well you know your your your your sort of progressive viewpoints are coming from a a modern liberal pluralist scientific based understanding of the |
53:19 | world uh and and and you're just cherry-picking out of these ancient Traditions the things that make sense and there's a lot of wisdom in the ancient Traditions I mean you've mentioned the the you know the Eastern Traditions with their they're much more uh U uh you know uh encompassing view of nature is not something to be conquered but something to be live in in in harmony with and and and similarly with a lot of the indigenous Traditions so there are lots there's lots of wisdom but I think |
53:51 | anyway but I don't want to harp on that because I I think as a as a culture Cal means to reach people it's important there's no question and it's great that you're doing this you're you know you're trying to do this uh I do I do though just one last point I do take issue with the notion that you know you can sort of make an analogy between uh progressives who are who are you know so uh so sort of caught up in the struggle against the fossil fuel interest the power that's been going on again in the US espe |
54:26 | uh that they they they they really do tend to have a you know a good versus evil and uh you know there's we have to you know the basically we have to just have a revolution and do away with fossil fuels and that's the solution to climate change I mean you know it that's a that's a political position that you know I agree with you that you know is is problematic at this point very problematic but you can kind of understand where that comes from it's not you know that that kind of uh uh a political iCal uh position is not the |
54:58 | same as religion it's just people getting caught up in in in a in a politics that's no longer constructive you know so I I I don't think it's really a fair a fair analogy uh to uh to these religious zealots that we're seeing now you know we're seeing in Israel we're seeing in in the Middle East we're seeing in in the religious right I mean all over the world these religious zealots are just creating Mayhem and destruction and horrible catastrophe so you know that that's there deeper problems here but anyway |
55:28 | I'll I'll shut up thanks very much Ron like if I could just respond to to a couple of themes there uh I don't see it like so for example I use the the verses the meek will inherit the earth and um the that uh the wroth of God will destroy those who who who destroy the Earth now uh to me uh those are texts that are um really valuable in uh developing an ecological spirituality and uh they uh they indicate a uh a what you call a sort of wisdom tradition that was um underlying the uh the biblical vision and uh so |
56:15 | it's uh whereas as I was uhu alluding uh the Hall of Christendom sort of uh took that original wisdom tradition and said okay we're going to use this for Imperial stability and uh so they were the ones who did the Cher picking you know they uh they essentially distorted the original message uh to say you know this all serves the interests of the Empire and and anything that that conflicts with the interests of Empire will'll just if you promote that then we'll kill you uh and so uh so we have |
56:47 | we've got like 2,000 years of this misuse of uh of the gospels and but if you my view is that if you go back to the original document then it's possible to find a sort of coherent scientific Vision uh within it even within the context that they had very limited U you know empirical knowledge of uh of the universe at at that time but within their context I I feel that there's a deep wisdom that can be it's like a new Reformation you know like uh putting the the Bible onto a completely scientific |
57:21 | basis you know we had a a partial re Reformation with protestantism and then uh it's it's possible to deepen that Reformation by by just putting it onto a complete like you know so for example saying all miracles are just Parables just taking the sort of hermeneutic of Suspicion that's one of the uh uh methods that was promoted by by n and Freud uh so you know we've we've got the ability to to use modern um philosophy to to critique uh religion in a constructive way and I I just have to differ with you Ron on on whether |
57:58 | there's a mythological basis around the uh the popular climate movement I I think that that analogy um is um is quite apt and so um you know it's it's good to uh like I I think I I take your point but you know I just see it a bit differently thank you thank you and ARA you had a comment yes I did um you can see me okay uh Robert first of all I just really want to thank you for this um I think this is a really important conversation the one in regards to um religion especially um and and I want to tell you |
58:46 | that this conversation was really valuable to me um in my work I'm currently uh very close to finalizing my pilot for revolution Earth and the central character um religion pay plays a very large role in in her upbringing um and so I have been and I did not grow up with religion so I have been wanting to find those seeds to integrate into the storyline to help make the points that you're making here and to find connectivity among the characters um so I just want to tell you that this is really valuable and there were nice |
59:33 | little nuggets that I'm going to be using as takeaways and uh and I might want to reach out to you again I'm going to watch this over again um and uh and I might want to um you know talk to you more about this uh if you're if you're aable um I think it's a really important conversation and that's exactly what I I want to do is reach these larger audiences engage them in the realities of the climate crisis and find a way to reach them where they're at uh so I I think this is really uh an important |
1:00:12 | part of that strategy honoring people and the with the best of of what religion has to offer them and to tie them in with the with the better messages that are coming out of it so they don't feel alienated in um in the work that we're doing um so yeah so I just wanted to that's great ARA thank you and so I was essentially like I find that to present these things in a in a productive way I I write them down so like I was just reading from a document that I've I've written so I'm happy to |
1:00:48 | circulate that and you know agac would like to um publish that on the website then then that uh very welcome that that would be awesome so you know and and I just think that this is um and I also really appreciate the you still having hope and I I think that the key is reaching those large audiences creating the cultural shifts that we need to to make and that's where the Hope Li to me that we can start implementing these uh you know strategies and larger ideas and then from there we can figure out to what degree how quickly we can make the |
1:01:32 | transition that we need to make um but uh you know we've already had conversations about you know I getting off fossil fuels I think is a necessary part to do as quickly as possible and I I and I think it's important to hold on to the hope of our ability to do that but clearly we can't hold on to that hope um uh while ignoring the reality that we're facing in terms of what needs to be done to give us the time to do it so um yeah and I I think ARA it's really important that as you say like I uh have |
1:02:09 | see uh you know considerable Grounds for Hope in the sort of ideas that I've been expressing and so I'm actually really optimistic you know I I I know Robert Chris expressed uh you know a very uh rational grounds for for pessimism but um I I I am optimistic about the potential to change and uh you know I think that uh we've seen uh you know big changes in in human thinking in the past and it's you know similar scale of of Sudden Change of of thinking is entirely possible as long as it can be coherently |
1:02:46 | um uh explained thank you yeah and we just have to reach people where they're at and find ways in beyond the kinds of conversations we've been having so uh but I see that happening right now you know there there is um a lot of movement in the entertainment industry and there are a lot of people I've been having conversations with that are bringing in uh more parts of that to make the cultural shift so wonderful thank you yeah thank you Bruce you have a comment or question yeah uh first uh well thank you |
1:03:24 | Robert very um compelling uh I enjoyed your talk and Robert Chris U and this for for everyone for hope uh the amount of money that we spent in World War II when you adjust it for gross domestic product change from World War II to today it's 42 trillion dollar a year for seven years 300 some odd trillion dollars in seven years that however is based on motivation in order to spend that kind of money we have to be strongly motivated which that I think is the source of a lot of folks um pessimism about our future and |
1:04:14 | we know what to do but we're not going to do it the trouble is though BR sorry sorry to cut in but that we uh we don't know what to do like uh implementing a a rebrightening program would cost of the order of billions of dollars a year not trillions uh now uh decarbonizing the world economy uh would cost trillions and that's the basis of the um uh the push back you know people people like we see it in Australia with with people say you know our government is saying uh we want to spend uh you know tens or |
1:04:52 | hundreds of billions of dollars on uh completely decarbonizing the uh the energy system and there's this really big you know conservative reaction against that that says you know just uh that's just flatly ridiculous and so so you've got this extreme polarization in the debate and I just think that there's a sort of um cutting the guardian knot that says well uh you know we can actually uh stop the warming uh temporarily by spending um B ions on a world scale which is easily affordable and you know it's nothing like the scale |
1:05:30 | but but but what is of the scale of World War II is the threat because uh you know the there's the there's the risk of uh you know just Mass migration and conflict and um you know ecological collapse that uh that will cause suffering on a similar scale to to World War II so you know we don't need to spend uh $500 trillion doll to uh to fix the problem and so you know it's it's possible to create a message that the uh that the issue can be solved so yeah sorry to sorry to jump in but you uh |
1:06:05 | you've had more to say yeah you're just uh illustrating a lot of the Contemporary thought about the the challenge um when I say we know what to do I'm talking about carbon dioxide removal and geoengineering emissions reductions is a very tiny part of the solution and one of the things that I have interpreted I say a lot is that we do not the science does not tell us that emissions reductions are mandatory this is what the scenarios say our climate culture is deeply embedded in the scenarios that are all future warming scenarios all |
1:06:44 | warming to 1.5c and I'm speaking of the accepted over a thousand scenar as of ipcc's AR6 um so the the concept yeah you you've you've written about that considerably Bruce and I I appreciate that my my view on um carbon dioxide removal is that uh what will be needed is Technologies to convert carbon dioxide into useful Commodities and uh I see that as uh entirely possible I I particularly like the work of my colleague um Brian Von Herson in uh Marine permaculture and uh just the the idea that it's it's possible to scale up |
1:07:25 | that sort of operation for products like biochar and uh concrete and materials and also fuel um uh in ways that uh at the multi- gigaton scale now it'll take quite a while to uh to develop that but I I really just don't like the idea of of sequestering CO2 uh on the model of enhanced oil recovery you know I just think that that's a a very um uh you know uh ineffective like it's there's no uh income stream for uh for geo sequestration but uh you know it's uh and I agree with you actually and I |
1:08:06 | think that this is a critical point that uh that this sort of uh conversion of um carbon dioxide into non-w Waring uh forms and locations is going to be a much bigger part of the solution than cutting emissions because like so say we you know currently emitting as I mentioned 40 gatons of carbon dioxide per year if it proves possible to convert 100 gigatons of carbon dioxide into useful products each year then uh it means that uh emissions can continue on a path to to planetary stability now that and uh and that that that's something that will |
1:08:48 | develop over the next Century but I think that we're seeing uh carbon dioxide removal or conversion you know we're essentially at the Kitty Hawk stage that Aviation was at a century uh more than a century ago and uh you know we need to move to the A380 stage uh but it's that sort of uh you know technological advance that will uh that will enable the solution of the carbon problem which of course is a major issue as far as ocean acidity is concerned and you know the uh but the the problem of ocean acidity can't be used as a reason |
1:09:24 | to uh do nothing about albo which is the current consensus argument which is really uh fcil and stupid you know we need to work on albo and and recognize that you know addressing the acidity and and also the um uh I mean the other uh issue is the termination shock issue just uh like we need to cooperate in order to restore holine um CO2 levels but that'll take a long time it's not going to happen uh um you know within decades it's a it's a sort of multi-century uh trajectory well I disagree on that I |
1:10:03 | don't want to spend too much time on this I don't get to the me to my subject though and part of it is this motivation thing with 42 trillion dollars a year appropriately motivated we can draw down atmospheric CO2 in a very fast way in just a couple of decades uh but our timelines are much shorter than that with tipping active threatening to become irreversible we've got to use direct cooling to try and mitigate for the Tipping because once the Tipping systems really get moving and they're really moving now the feedback emissions |
1:10:38 | just overwhelm everything um so my point was just that there is hope because we have done this before however we have to be we have to be appropriately motivated now to to further the the the conversation about religion and climate change Katherine heho I think everybody knows does anybody not know Katherine heho who who she is I I I remember but I just remind us of a position uh she's texas-based has a global platform significant faith-based um atmospheric scientist 150 papers to her name uh she speaks in very plain |
1:11:17 | English so she's a really good spokesperson for a lot of ions um and she's in love Texas Tech very uh faith-based Community up there um and um she's part of her platform is speaking to the faith ba faith-based uh population um but she is deeply mired in the moral hazard and Emissions reductions alone uh my question is this to anybody uh not just Robert what how can we use um uh religion to come back at her to to get her to better consider restoration when tipping systems are active I mean we've got |
1:12:11 | 1.5c probably going to be popped this year if not certainly by a large margin next year which is going to be a huge motivating factor but I I still believe that the emissions reduction alone culture is going to persist because it's it's so uh deeply entrenched so is there does anybody have any thoughts about how to address somebody with such a large platform like this it's kind of the same thing of of getting them to switch from ipcc scenarios to Restoration to the true science it says we've got to reduce the energy |
1:12:48 | imbalance any any ideas well that's exactly what I'm interested to do so I than thank you Bruce for for raising that and I think as as Arya has commented in the chat that you know reaching out to people like Katherine heho is uh uh offers just the potential for a courteous dialogue um in ways that can uh just explore U the basis of of different U perspectives uh on on the issue and you know try to uh you know look through the way I see it is in terms of paradigm shift and uh the the anomalies in the old Paradigm have |
1:13:26 | accumulated to an extent that it it's broken and uh but that what's required is a is a new coherent Paradigm that can uh that can offer a path uh forward and uh so uh it's where I I think that that's entirely possible um but um yeah uh I'll I'll leave it at that thank you okay a topic for future discussion um we're closing in on two 48 um Chris Robert I see you have your hand up again but I'm give Mike McCracken an opportunity to speak first and then we'll come back to you and uh wrap up |
1:14:05 | the mik you need to unmute um yeah I had I actually just have a question it should be very brief here when you say it's so costly to change over to these new systems actually um solar and wind and we hope the water power we generate are going to be less expensive I mean all these systems that exist today are going to have to be replaced and I guess what I'm wondering is is are the large costs you estimating taking account of the Investments that would have to be made to keep the fossil fuel system going um I mean I the the the estimates |
1:14:48 | we have for example for the United States if we were to put in a high high voltage direct current supplement to our transmission system so we could move solar energy across the you know long distances from where it's best made to where it's needed or that that would actually cut the cost of electricity to people that it would actually be a net saving um if we get so we can put hydrogen into some of the existing machinery and and everything some of that can be adjusted without having to replace every machine and everything all |
1:15:25 | over the all over the country so I I guess I'm wondering about your cost estimate of saying it's so so impossibly hard to be pushing on um um you know intervention I mean the problem is it's an upfront cost to do a lot of these things and some of the others are amortized more over time but I'm really wondering about the cost which is said to be you know only a percent or two of the GDP o over over time or something it's equally an opportunity cost Mike because uh the uh like I think it's of |
1:16:01 | course it's possible to um to sorry I've got a um request to record this meeting locally but I'm just not going to um follow that up um but uh the uh so if if the opportunity cost is seen that uh you know decarbonizing and um brightening the planet are are alternatives then the uh the cost of decarbonizing is clearly far higher than than the cost of the than the cooling return expensive yeah no question about that and and I see we have a lot of debate here in Australia about the uh the high cost of new |
1:16:44 | transmission systems that are needed to um to bring uh energy from solar and wind uh locations and it's I find it interesting that there's this debate about nuclear the idea that um small modular nuclear reactors could be located on the sites of um cied Power stations to essentially plug in a dispatchable power that would um uh that would not require uh new infrastructure so there's a whole there's a whole series of of debates and I really welcome you know all of the different perspectives that there are on on these |
1:17:20 | questions and you know I would just like to see you know really solid scientific uh research U that's uh that that assesses all of these uh different ideas uh so that you know the policy can be based on evidence rather than ideology that's uh that's the that's the goal I suppose okay and Robert Chris Last Words yes just real quickly I want just want to pick up on Bruce's point about this this idea of uh you know the the the the comparison with being on a war footing because it it's something that |
1:17:59 | um I understand is a very attractive metaphor but I think it's actually very misleading and inappropriate um one of the other things that you'll find out about if you should uh like Robert um read my book is the notion of wicked problems and if you're not familiar with Wicked problems then just Google Wicked problems and you'll find out about them but fighting a war is essentially a teame problem you have an enemy you go out and kill him and problem solved climate change is not like that it is |
1:18:31 | not a tame problem climate change is a genuinely Wicked problem and that's why it is so difficult so the the the warf footing metaphor is appropriate in for in terms of we got to act urgently and we can spend this money and we can incur the debt to do it but the problem exactly as Bruce was saying is about the motivation and the motivation to deal with the tame problem is very different from the motivation to deal with a wicked problem because with a wicked problem you really don't know what you're getting |
1:19:04 | into and I'll leave it at that yeah I so I suppose I see extreme weather as a as an entry point to uh to overcome the uh the wickedness because uh like looking at the hurricane Otis that smashed into Acapulco two months ago it was essentially due to the uh High sea sea surface temperature and uh if uh like one of the comments that I've been uh emphasizing is that if people had listened to John leam a decade ago and had um put resources into Marine Cloud brightening then that sort of catastroph could have been uh significantly |
1:19:45 | mitigated in its uh and uh in its impact and and so uh that uh it offers a path to uh I suppose see it as as not so much a wicked problem but as a soluble problem okay well can I add one one little bitty thing sure wicked wicked problem uh I was a reader on a of climate ethics thesis uh several years back that introduced me to Wicked problems and um I do not believe that uh geoengineering and carbon dioxide removal a wicked problem I think the way that we're going about it with further warming with ipcc scenarios and largely |
1:20:29 | emissions reductions is truly a wicked problem but in no way do I think that climate pollution treatment with carbon dioxide removal and then emergency cooling will some form of direct cooling are any means Wicked they're simple Tech processes we know MCB um intimately after 150 years of implementation and the three uh climate uh carbon dioxide removal strategies that have been used overuse been in use for over a 100 years uh the three main ones are uh widespread in industry and their components are even more |
1:21:04 | widespread so uh I do agree about the wickedness of emissions reductions but not about uh restoration mitigation thank you Bruce based on a system science sounds like we have a a good topic for a future conversation so we'll have to figure out how we might um do phase two of this um I think Ron has some announcement about future meetings and what will be held and when um we're going to take a little break for the holiday season so I'm going to turn it over to Ron and um let him tell you what's what's happening uh |
1:21:51 | in our future and Ron yes thank you yep thank you Suzanne I hope I get my date straight so we are taking a break uh hbac is taking a break for the holidays and we will reconvene on January 11th Thursday January 11th uh uh so 're looking forward to that we're trying to get some folks to talk about um uh cop 28 debrief uh Robert uh uh generously sort of pinch hit for us here because uh we were hoping to to have some people today but that that didn't work out so anyway so we uh we wish everyone here a |
1:22:30 | good holidays and uh and we'll be back on the on the 11th with again as I said you know uh some some hopefully some speakers on on cup 28 uh in the meantime uh uh we'll be um uh you know the steering committee will also be taking a break but we will be working on things uh we have a lot of things that uh you know we can do um uh with without without having to have a a live Zoom meeting I think that's it did I miss something no I think that's good so next general meeting January 11th everyone |
1:23:07 | have a happy holiday as you celebrate it um and um thank you for being here today thank you Robert very enlightening and um if the steering Circle members will stay on please we will see you all next year happy New Year |