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| 00:04 | hello everyone hello hi hello greetings can anyone hear me yes yes I can hear you Stephen good wife oops so there's hot in the UK it's just in the US at the moment no it's nice thanks it's a bit cold in Scotland we're above the jet stream it's southern Europe that's uh below the position for the jet stream and again pounding at the moment [Music] I think it's 15 degrees at the moment in |
| 01:11 | Centigrade okay well whereas in Europe the places are approaching 40 degrees Centigrade yeah Sardinia is expecting up to 47 degrees on Tuesday apparently uh hmm now John we've got a few things on the agenda uh let's uh let's get on by and others can join as they as they come in yep so um could you could you list them Robert um because I I'm just we could we could make a list as we go along how would you like to do it uh okay well uh yeah I mean we can what I can do is I can put uh currents um agenda points into the |
| 02:13 | um into the chat so we received an email from you which is your consistent SRM storyline for refreezing the Arctic as as a main uh thing to uh to talk about and then uh other things that have been raised with with me uh the work that's um some of us have been doing with Stephen on um uh on on efforts to promote Marine Cloud brightening and um the uh um the whole question of um comparing the climate cooling effects of of various methods so um so those uh those are three points so why don't I just put those into the uh |
| 03:12 | into the chat now um um so okay and then um concerning my own um storyline uh quite a few issues have been raised uh mainly on the uh mainly on the thread which we just started on the storyline but we can discuss them here uh yeah for example yay towel uh gave a very uh aggressive um critique of stratospheric aerosol injection which I think was uh a little unfair um and uh he he said watch watch this video and I |
| 04:17 | hadn't had a chance to watch it so I can't I felt I couldn't answer him straight back until I'd done that just recently come in that was a fairly meted response to the um to the storyline idea okay did that circulate to other people or just you I think it went to the whole uh to everybody all all three groups okay um and some of the criticism was definitely not valid um um Roger Roger we I can't hear you very clearly can you can you raise the volume oh yeah I think that's better just get closer to the microphone that's |
| 05:15 | better yeah um at least the uh criticism about interference with um or possible interference with um outgoing long-wave radiation is invalid because the Practical sizes are too small to interfere with out with uh long wave infrared um it's also it didn't address the fact that it's uh it goes away pretty fast if there's anything discovered uh in the other point is simply that uh it's even tests that are prohibited so uh even if the points that you raised might have been valid it's a good reason |
| 06:00 | to proceed with the test so we can know for sure yeah I mean that that's uh that's actually an argument for starting uh trials or actual trial deployment um in uh enough to produce an effect that you can measure um we we have we've actually considered uh several several of us have considered the idea independently of uh putting extra 2 or essay sulfate compounds into jet fuel and seeing whether the uh the contrails are brightens or lengthened having a longer life |
| 07:04 | um [Music] for jet country also yeah there would only be prepared jets that are above the um in the lower stratosphere um uh one of our members who's not arrived yet he probably will come Brian Von thousand uh says that the it would be quite simple to arrange because the pilot could have a tank of um one of his tanks could contain slightly higher amounts of of uh so far uh compared to the normal I mean it would obviously have to meet regulations but then he could switch tanks and one could monitor |
| 08:09 | monitor the results from space and see if there was any difference in that in the optical in uh I I did receive uh you're right uh the response from yay Tao from uh uh went to people I got a bit confused because he he started it off by talking about a completely separate Point um and and so I hadn't uh hadn't read his uh uh his concerns but it raises one of the uh one of the issues that that I find quite interesting which is that uh people do assume that solar radiation management is a euphemism force uh |
| 08:51 | stratospheric aerosol injection and um the uh the reality is that there's uh that's radiation management is is a much broader thing and it does include there's Cloud thinning and uh and plus uh even uh now somebody's uh typing um can look at themselves on mute if they're uh if they're while they're typing um the uh um and possibly even Technologies like otech uh which uh which have a a thermal um radiation management effect um so so that distinction that people raise between solar and thermal |
| 09:32 | radiation management is is one that um that some people would uh would like to question um but uh the uh uh I I thought that uh that yay towel was um to uh to negative um is uh in his criticisms um uh like for example saying that that uh criticizing statement that the risks associated with all the proposed SRM technique or compared to the risks from allowing the Arctic meltdown to continue um that's uh that seems completely reasonable statement and um you saw the uh the further thing is that there's um a clear net for excessive uh research |
| 10:26 | um on uh on SRM techniques and uh you know people seem to jump to the conclusion that uh that Equity is um neglecting for research to to assess all of these risks and benefits properly uh yeah so so we we've done our our own kind of attempt to research or meta research uh in in this group to try and assess uh system um we actually brag actually produced a a review of all the techniques for re-freezing the Arctic but when uh when it came to doing the calculations of how much cooling power was needed to refreeze the Arctic we |
| 11:26 | um we had to cut cut down uh very much on the on the variety of techniques which would be uh sufficient provides a sufficient cooling power that I did my own calculation so I've checked them with Kevin Kevin actually came up with a with with uh lower figure for um Marine Cloud branding that I had which is uh so we did kind of reconcile our uh calculations and agreed that Marine Cloud brightening was about an order of magnitude too little for we're freezing the Arctic um now that's a point John that is um I |
| 12:27 | I think reflects some of the uh the views among um stratospheric aerosol injection Advocates but is uh contested by MCB Advocates and so where things are contested like that uh I think it's uh it's essential to defer to the uh peer-reviewed literature debate and um and and not like and and not jump to um uh you know advocating conclusions that's um that may not fully understand the issues and so right okay so I I don't I don't want to this argument that might understand in in the way of the general principle that we |
| 13:17 | need to refreeze the Arctic and I think the argument you know even even if it's not a even if Marine Cloud brightening isn't sufficient by itself it can help and we we need to throw everything at this problem that we can so in that respect I think we're probably see it eye to eye don't we because now Rebecca wants to speak good morning everyone I'm sorry I was five minutes late um even the early birds are late sometimes it's um six o'clock and 6 15 in the morning in Australia and um anyway |
| 13:58 | um good morning to you um what I would like to ask is once we think that people are here that are going to join like I think who might have joined a few minutes late in manager as well could we please have a DOT Point agenda in the chat and yes I'll put that in already Rebecca I'll open it in again okay so what what that means is that people who join late like myself and possibly heard haven't seen it so I appreciate that um the other thing is um oh that's really good thank you um okay well that's good now what I would |
| 14:35 | also suggest is that we might have a a very high level I mean I've heard most of what was just said then but I'd like someone to do a playback of the main points that have being said since the beginning of the meeting just because then we're all in the same Loop um plus what I have done because I didn't see the agenda there I popped in um the video I've just sent is in relation to item either one or two and I won't speak about it until it's the proper place in the agenda but um in any case in fact John could you |
| 15:08 | give us a little recap of what you said sorry could I just finish what I would like myself find helpful is what you said and what others have responded with because then we're all in the same group and whoever joins you from now on still won't know but at least all the people here will know so thank you very much everyone okay uh Rebecca um so the agenda is the the Asylum storyline which I said uh and then um Robert added um Marine Cloud bright ening uh scoping and climate cooling effects so we we've actually already started on |
| 15:56 | the SRM storyline and uh the first response I got from that was from uh Timmy uh sorry yaetal uh at he uh he made two points I can't remember what the first one was but the second Point uh was that he thought that uh uh the risks of SRM uh were were vastly were greater than the risks from um not deploying SRM I think I think I think that's not necessarily much greater but they're problematic yeah that they're unknown so so his his points were that the uh um the assertions in your dialogue uh uh include |
| 16:54 | um statements that's uh that are uncertain uh yes because I I was pretty uh pretty strong and definite the the the the risks uh of SRM to cool the Arctic where we're negligible compared to the risks of letting the Arctic um uh meltdown continue unabated which effectively is what happened that would happen uh if you um if you if you relied on emissions reduction but it would also continue if you relied on uh General global cooling now that's perhaps that uh my assumption there is a bit contentious so you know yeah I would think that his |
| 17:57 | his uh planetary brightening proposal would actually deal with the Arctic Tipping Point because I I think it's got no no evidence to suggest that they would you know they're accelerating and then and we need a huge amount of cooling power directed into the Arctic because that's where the heating is taking place and Kevin Lester and myself estimated how much uh cooling power was needed we we came up to similar figures um so that's um so that uh that's recapping a bit of what we were discussing uh Rebecca |
| 18:46 | um Roger Roger Arnold who's here uh I've noted the yay towel thing and said that some of his criticisms have started their gerosol injection were invalid um the business about uh uh infrared or thermal radiation blocking was not valid I think was there anything else Roger uh well not directly about that point but um regarding Marine Town brightening it's hard to have Marine brightening that was selected for cooling the Arctic uh the artist weren't worn about three or four times as much as the rest of the planet |
| 19:42 | Marine Cloud brightening could potentially bring down the average global temperature but you'd still have a big problem because of the uh uh weakened polar vortex the uh Meandering of the jet stream that's bringing so much bad weather that uh would still exist even if you were able to re raise the average or lower the global temperature average um uh yeah so you're you're agreeing with me there yeah you need something that's selective for the Arctic in particular because I think probably the highest |
| 20:23 | priority issue at this point is to try to stabilize the polar vortex and put a stop to the Meandering of the jet stream that's bringing so much turbulent weather can I say something about Marine Cloud writing [Music] if you cool anywhere in the earth you will reduce the heat that is Flowing from the hype the hot places to the Arctic and the Antarctic so you don't have to do it in the Arctic you just have to do it anywhere and then wait a bit the reasons for doing it in the Arctic are that you get a quicker result |
| 21:07 | and also you are annoying fewer people and probably the most of the people around the Arctic would be quite glad to get their eyes back but that you can do it anywhere now my calculations are very different from John's and I'll try and explain the way I did the calculation I'm assuming that if you've got a combination of ice and water together you've fixed the temperature that's absolutely fixed depending on the salinity of the sea water and it's a little bit under 0 degrees Centigrade |
| 21:44 | now if the next thing is you know how fast the ice isn't disappearing and you can get that from the piomass measurements which are really quite reliable if you know that and you know the latent heat of ice you know exactly how much heat you'd need to remove to stop the ice melting okay and the uh the solar input and the Arctic just for a short two or three months I decided to the solstice is actually higher than the equator so you can calculate from that how much you need to reflect of the rather High |
| 22:25 | solar input coming in and that's where I got the calculation now the problem is or it's assuming that the heat that is coming in in the form of warm water and warm air has not changed I'm assuming that's that's constant and that may not be true and when I ask people if they have a number for it they don't know if I if they give them a number and how it much how much it would change they would have a lot of confidence I agree that it's an uncertainty and assuming that it hasn't |
| 22:58 | changed is a little bit dodgy so nevertheless that might be a factor of two but this gives me really quite a lot of confidence in the uh mass and latent heat device argument okay then that's that's a very encouraging I was amazed at how a few spray vessels I need to do that even just for two or three months right okay now uh the I think the thing where things are maybe going wrong is that if we look at the difference of the solar heat if there's all the ice there or no ice there that is a tremendous |
| 23:38 | extra gain so the question is uh are you going to wait until the all all the eyes has gone and then try to recover it or are you going to hope that there'll be some ice left in in March and that therefore you've got a high reflection at the beginning of the heating season so that's what that's where the big difference is now John made a lot of other assumptions in his earlier calculations which uh assumed that there was um a much lower Cloud fraction than it actually is and he didn't take account |
| 24:13 | the higher seller input in this in the in the high latitude and there are various other things I think but the main one was that he assumed that all the eyes had gone and we had to bring try and bring it back does that help thank you Stephen Rebecca hi um could I say Stephen I found that very helpful because it's elucidating or saying with words what you've already written down which I'm familiar with and which is in our what we call the MCB pitch document which is on item two on the agenda um John in relation to what you sent a |
| 24:53 | few minutes ago um like so I'm just going to do playback here um when I say just it's not that easy to do it but in this group we are all agreed we need cooling whatever verb we want to use but cooling we are agreed that SRM is one of the methods along with refreezing Bright Eyes Leslie Fields um kind of technique so there's a whole range of nature-based techniques or things that mimic nature um so that's the second thing we're agreed on what we have put into the mCP pitch document which you I think you agree |
| 25:32 | with it too from what you said a moment ago is that we need someone to sit down and document the sort of thing Stephen was just saying and what you've said yourself you've spoken with I don't even know the person's name but another climate scientist so um what we need to do is map out at the highest level this is what I call a top-down estimate of the or methodology for assessing the climate cooling power of various SRM techniques so that is a top-down thing and at some point when you have the time the money and the |
| 26:06 | mental energy and organization we need to get we need to commission this is my suggestion a few experts to say here are the questions here's Stephen's approach here's what John and the other chapter found out please compare and contrast and provide us with your view of the top-down methodology so that's one thing the next thing is sorry Rebecca can I just respond on that yes certainly uh David Keith has already suggested that and uh he commented that a research program to properly assess the uh the |
| 26:42 | various um SRM techniques um would uh would require a a research program costing around two billion dollars and that that would save um the uh expected um cost of 10 trillion dollars and so would have a 5001 benefit cost ratio and uh so so the idea of um a small informal group uh commissioning uh work uh on uh on these issues is uh I I think is is slightly uh misplaced because what's what's required is the Strategic vision of uh the need to call the planet and once that strategic Vision then the appropriate |
| 27:35 | search involving the appropriate formal institutions can be possible and I I really think that we're uh you know uh chasing our Tails by by saying that that we uh in isolation from governments and universities can provide useful comments on on these highly complex questions that involve massive field research and uh and Broad academic study well okay Robbie I agree Robbie and I spend about two hours a week normally chatting one to one so we normally do we're not never at odds with each other or very rarely I agree with |
| 28:15 | what you've seen what I am saying is can we please frame our own discussions in terms of what you just said we are pipsqueaks and we haven't got the time and the money and we have got the intellectual expertise but David Keith has said that what you've said so um instead of saying for example climate scientist X says here's the estimate from a top-down point of view and climate scientist why which is Stephen has a different way of estimating and on the back of an envelope or a spreadsheet let's just say it is a job that needs to |
| 28:48 | be doing done with the top down and what we need to do instead is get on and find this is my main point get on and find together some small practical ways of getting started with cooling the planet and um what I now want to say and I actually don't want to get into item two but just on that point Stephen and Alan gadion have done amazing bottom-up methodology to assess the power of NCB and I think it could also be used to assess the power of another thing that um Clive and France are working on so what I'm saying is let's stick to what |
| 29:25 | we're really good at which is small methodology when I say small I mean detailed bottom-up calcs and Stephen and Alan have written something up so I'm just going to finish with one final point which is now not a playback but a new thing the um film that I posted up the top D I'm sorry that my mouse is making a noise it's an old-fashioned Mouse but the thing that I sent that the video is called um can we cool the planet and it's uh it's about um water the water cycle and regeneration it is from someone called |
| 30:03 | Adam long who met with Stephen recently and he's been traveling around Europe talking to experts in Prague and um I think he's in Zurich at the moment and of course our I mean John I'm sorry you didn't get a spot in the video but Steven's in the video with MCB so um what I but the actual reason I put it there is two reasons one is that it's the most powerful thing I've seen for a while for a long time on the problem right it's referring to the um the 2019 terrible black fire fire |
| 30:39 | black summer fires that we had when our whole East Coast was burning and a billion animals died so that's sort of saying hello everyone we're in a bad spot at the moment understatement and then the next thing is what can we do about it and then he goes into a lot of um short information about investing to change the water cycle and beautiful examples from Australia and I think it was from Rajasthan um citing certain experts there what he's called a regendra Singh is one of them and then he then sync ways into |
| 31:15 | um can we also look at MCB and then he also says at the end of it this is what we're going to do research on and wrapping up my little solidity here he says things like we need to understand all of the Sai techniques and all of the buses and minuses and pros and cons and so it's sort of like our own prag Manifesto if I may say so and like but I'm sure that we don't want to spend it may be even a good use of time to spend five minutes looking at the video now rather than later but in any case |
| 31:47 | we're all on about creating a storyline and um that's what I have to say at the moment thanks Rebecca I'd prefer to use that time for our conversations and encourage people to um to look at the video uh later uh now I I wanted to go back to John and ask uh further questions on the SRM storyline uh John were there were there further things yeah if it was a there was a general point that that SRM was it was too specific it didn't cover some other cooling methods um which is fair enough and um because there are |
| 32:32 | methods like uh Cloud removal uh Cloud removal uh in the Arctic winter would be very very powerful uh technique for allow for increasingly outgoing thermal radiation uh we we know that the cold cold nights are cloudless nights and that because the clouds are uh blankets from purple infrared radiation radiation um so yeah so so my my storyline needs to be uh clarified on that uh can I say something about your your winter thing that it's possible if you believe to work by Alter Scar and Christensen that a very small aerosol in |
| 33:32 | the Aitkin mode will actually remove clouds they're saying that this is happening in the low latitudes but it would also happen in the Highlight is if we can make it and the reason that they I think they if I understand them correctly they're saying that if you have the aerosol too small to nucleate it can still take a lot of water out of the atmosphere but not make reflecting drops uh because there's such a large number of them all right now I did send I think a note about the the possibility of using the |
| 34:09 | same spray vessels in the winter time with a different size of aerosol as a way of clearing the clouds in the winter and that would be a very effective way of of cooling during so you let a lot more infrared out to deep space a way that we might be able to make the very small aerosol is to use diluted salt water to have less salt in it it's not the size of the drops that matters it's the massive assault that you're spraying so there is a possibility to do that I don't want to push that until I |
| 34:45 | understand a bit more about the ultrascar Christensen Atkin mode stuff thanks Devin Daniel yeah just a quick question and I'm I'm not an expert in this but um Stephen had said before that the aching mode generally resulted in variable size droplets so I'm a bit confused on yeah according to alter scan Christensen could be warming rather than Cooling and they're doing it by clearing cloud so I think there might be a particular spot in the middle of the Aiken mode would be really right for this and but I don't know what what that |
| 35:26 | would be the eight commode is is fairly wide um and there may be a sweet size that we should go for I've actually got enough wafers in the present design to have it have some Wafers for small drops and some Wafers for big drops or some Wafers for fresh water or only slightly salty water and others for the normal so we could do this with really very little change provided that the ultrascar Christensen effect is correct let's hear from her sorry John uh do you mind I was just going to respond very positively to that |
| 36:08 | statement that Sansa something that we should definitely include in our portfolio and I I sus I suspect that the result will of cloud removal would be more dramatic than than Cloud brightening actually right for the art game but you can use the same the same we could only use look for the Arctic in for three months in the air we for the rest of the time we want to send them off to stop El Nino is or modify hurricanes or uh more conceptual they're a versatile tool you can put them anywhere where you want and leave them |
| 36:49 | as long as you want and you may be able to tweak the size of the spray that they're releasing much cheaper than than airplanes they're the the problem is in Winter you've got the sea ice to contend with for your ships all you need to do is to be somewhere where what you're doing you will be blowing there you don't go into the ice you go up to the ice Berg Marine Cloud brightening in the Arctic winter uh look Let's uh let's go so so Marine Cloud brightening is is not the right term here but |
| 37:28 | okay no clearance clearance yeah okay same tool uh yes I am I enjoyed reading your storyline John uh I guess the major comment I have is that uh I don't think anyone who is skeptical of um intervention uh would get past the second or third sentence you wrote because you only spent and I don't have it in front of me right now but I've had it earlier I think you only had a sentence or so or two on why um emission reductions won't do the job and 98 of the world is you know believes that emission reductions as we've said |
| 38:20 | you know over and over and over again is the way to go uh and so I don't think anybody's gonna read it past past that statement so and let me just give you an example coincidentally uh since this meeting started I received an email from Al Gore not a personal email from Al Gore but I was a graduate of his training program some years ago along with a few thousand several tens of thousands of people around the world obviously I don't need to say who Al Gore is and how much even today even though he's not as you know |
| 38:56 | as prominent as he was a decade ago how much influence he has and it's inviting me to a you know a seminar with him but but here's I just want to read one sentence uh at the very beginning of the email the science is clear at net zero emissions global warming stops almost immediately the Earth starts to heal and temperatures can begin to fall within years halting climate Devastation and opening the door to a sustainable future now correct me if I'm wrong but to me that couldn't be more inaccurate and just absurd an absurd |
| 39:38 | scientific statement from somebody who is the world's leading proponent of climate action um like the issue is that the ipcc let me just can I assessment assessment report sorry yeah yeah go on yeah yeah no I'm just saying that that that's what we're up against and and I by no means of critical of all the technical stuff you're doing because that needs to be done as well so don't get me wrong but I'm just saying in you I say this in the context of the storyline unless and I don't think you need to |
| 40:10 | spend more than a couple sentences I'm not saying you need to write a whole lot but to me it would be that um even the most drastic uh and dramatic emission reductions can only slow um the melting of the ice it can't stop it it can't reverse it I mean that's scientifically I think um non-controversial or whatever other language you want to use so that's that's my point this is what we're up against um you know I'm gonna I already signed up for attending Al Gore's webinar next |
| 40:41 | week and I hope I'll have a chance to challenge him on that on that statement that was said there I do that about two or three times a day on on Twitter to people like Michael Mann uh who you know that's that's what people say well we get to Net Zero and warming stops nobody says well warming may stop may stop you know unless you accept the you know the the Hanson approach but whether you do or you don't even if warming quote unquote stops it stops at you know two or two and a half degrees C levels |
| 41:14 | continue melting well you know I don't need to say that to to you all um that the effects of climate change continue getting worse in the best circumstance if all we do is rely on emission reductions alone so anyway you know just to summarize I think you need to hit harder or else you won't get people to read past the very beginning okay thanks thanks uh well uh if you could send us um a bit of text that you've just quoted that would be it uh help uh okay yeah I'll I'll put that in the chat right now |
| 41:47 | if I could figure out how thanks that's certainly uh worth a a very good point there could I just quickly comment that uh Doug McMahon like this has been a point of debate on our lists uh for a considerable time uh with uh David Keith Michael Mann um uh and uh various people critiquing them now uh Doug mcmart Martin uh made a comment uh uh about a month ago which uh my impression was that he endorsed the uh zero emission commitment uh consensus and uh he he suggested that it was obvious now Doug McMartin is is a |
| 42:37 | scientist for whom I have the greatest respect and uh I was really surprised at his comment and uh I think uh engaging him on on this topic uh in a bit more detail because he does tend to be uh quite dismissive of uh of uh of people uh and in in quite a cursory way and so exploring these issues in uh in more depth uh is uh immensely valuable because uh like I think that the the most uh uh distinguished critiques of the zero emission commitment concept which is uh What underpins uh herbs um Point uh is uh comes from people like |
| 43:24 | uh Tom Guerrero and uh and yay Tao and uh uh so uh I I fully agree herb that's uh it's such a critical debate if I could I just maybe I maybe slightly disagree with you I uh because I think my argument is even if we're willing to accept the zero emission commitment we'll have you know we're still going to be a two or two and a half or whatever indefinitely sea level will continue to Rise um ice will continue to melt even the ipcc acknowledges that so rather than I'm not against you know trying to |
| 44:04 | Marshal the scientific arguments against that but my my logic is to say well concede that it's we still will have completely unacceptable uh impacts and consequences we still need cooling even if we accept that and if we ex you know and if the Hansons of the world are correct that's even more of a reason to do it but in other words not to pin our arguments on uh you know on on weakening or uh you know questioning uh you know the zero emission commitment that's like a bonus if you will well they're very much related and I |
| 44:39 | think my interpretation is that that people are in a state of psychological Despair and uh wish to uh hang on to something that they can find Hope and I I certainly find Hope in uh Albedo announcement and I think that that's a scientifically based uh argument but uh there are there's a mass movement that finds hope in emission reduction and then for scientists to exaggerate the potential impacts of uh Mission reduction feeds that's a popular myth of uh false hope which uh so I I it's I think you're absolutely right herb that |
| 45:21 | you know confronting those uh those opinions is just essential okay uh now yeah I say one just just very quickly I I responded a few weeks ago on Twitter to Michael Mann actually making this case uh which I again I think it's self-evident that you know if we get to zero emission commitment it will be at a temperature significantly higher today you know it'll take us decades to get there of you know of all sorts of consequences that are horrible uh and his response to me was very critical you know I was surprised he didn't block me |
| 45:59 | because he's notorious for blocking almost anybody who slightly disagrees with him but I think because we've had some positive interactions but he he all he said was well this is um repeating the discredited comments of many of the opponents of climate action it's he didn't he didn't make any substantive response which I think the reason I mentioned it I think it fit Phil you know it fits with what you've just said Robert that you know even he is holding on to this and is so afraid of |
| 46:29 | acknowledging that even the best case is unacceptable thanks herb let's hear from Jonathan now Daniel had his hand up also but he's taken it down so yeah uh oh sorry Daniel do you want to quickly speak before Jonathan comes in yeah I'm just gonna um back up the the point that herb made about the the need for um you know near-term calling because you know it was about horrible consequences I mean literally the the the detention in Europe and there's a lot of areas where people haven't got air conditioning |
| 47:02 | um you know if these continue to ramp up and it's expected I think um James Hansen said the next year is expected to be generally hotter than this year we're getting against the limits of livability in terms of we're out of function day-to-day and the these extreme temperatures are actually I mean I've heard in the US they're the prolonged nature of them is already getting um you know it's a record levels of you know above 45 I think it was Phoenix or somewhere that they're having you know a |
| 47:32 | sustained long heat spells and and those night temperatures not coming down so you're getting to those limits already so we're talking about in the next couple of years we might get sort of you know really and it's not agriculture isn't in the news headlines I mean in the UK it's all about the extreme heat affecting people but in the meantime you're getting the frazzling of our crops and that's going to feed through to literally uh the the food industry and you're going to get raising prices |
| 47:58 | all these are going to cause a lot of instability and these are all the consequences are going to be major in the next couple of years thanks Daniel uh Jonathan great thanks yeah my my question is for Stephen uh I'm working on a demonstration and a story and I've had pretty good success with it but I'm not sure that it's true uh it helps to convince people of the exciting prospect of uh Marine Cloud brightening and here's How The Story Goes a lot of students are that are now adults have seen the demonstration of a |
| 48:39 | super saturated solution suddenly crystallizing or dropping out a precipitate and I reference to those that they've seen and sometimes I show them one and then I explained that there are regions of the ocean it may only be five percent or ten percent where there's no dust at all in the air and because of the wave action there's very little salt in the air too and the air the air is sort of super saturated and ready to form clouds but there's no nucleation and that if a ship went through that area and sprayed out something to |
| 49:22 | nucleate that the amount of cloud that would come off would be like an eruption or a precipitate from a super saturated solution which is the air in this case and then they get it but I want to make sure that I'm right are there areas of the ocean where the particle count is so low and the vapor pressure is so high that the clouds will just erupt off the back of these ships you know obviously in a time frame of minutes or hours or days but is that is that a true description yes it is true it takes time for the |
| 50:07 | aerosols to move around they that doesn't happen instantly and actually has been filmed and I was there and I can show you them stills from it it was filmed by Discovery Channel and the place they did it was a lioplex of uh Southwest Africa and the air there had come up from the Antarctic and was an incredibly clean and they released some aerosol from uh cloud seeding flares and about 10 minutes after they'd done that a cloud appeared from a completely clear blue sky and spread out and gradually got uh bigger and bigger and |
| 50:50 | bigger as the as the material moved along so it's quite true it's a bit surprising but it can happen you're right but it takes time for the stuff to move around if you look at the mean free pass of uh air molecules you'll be able to calculate how long it's going to take uh if it's not if the wind is not blowing and if the wind is blowing you've got a spread of turbulence uh I don't think it's a thing to worry about but but you're right it could happen and it was air mass that had been |
| 51:24 | exceptionally clean in what percentage of the ocean do you think might have that characteristic uh I I need to get someone who knows a lot more about it than than I do out of I think the person to ask would be a chap called Danny rosenfelt who has worked uh he he's he's from Israel but he's worked in the southern oceans and he is saying that the effect of marine Cloud brightening is double what I thought it was um but the the the the the the the Ice crystallizing uh is a lovely experiment to do but it does need the shock of uh |
| 52:10 | some tiny little bit of fragment to begin the nucleation process but I don't think it'd be like an explosion right right I find that the supersaturation uh analogy uh really communicates well to people because to a young student it seems sort of magical that the professor can put one drop of something in a gallon of liquid and suddenly the entire liquid turns blue or a bunch of white precipitate drops out or something and and these kind of impressive demonstrations uh I think can capture the Mind better |
| 52:50 | than the idea of saying well there were clouds there before and then what we did increased their reflectivity by 10 percent that that sounds kind of mild compared to the suicide that's much more likely to be the case but the super saturation the the reason that we went to laplex was the people said it's always got the perfect clouds there always and when we got there it was a completely clear blue sky that wasn't the cloud in the sky at all and we kept telling them John Latham and I were there and we said look we can't make |
| 53:24 | clouds we can only make clouds that are already there be whiter and they wanted to film us looking stupid which is why they wouldn't have as much better television than than an experiment that works and we kept saying no no it's not going to work and they did it and it actually did work in a very dramatic way and I I will send you all the stills from this um thanks very much uh Jonathan and Stephen that's that's really interesting I want to check Roger were you wanting to speak yeah supersaturation is very common but |
| 54:02 | it's a phenomenon of the upper uh higher atmosphere is very unusual to have super saturation at sea level because you have to have a warmer air mass that picks up the vapor in the first place normally supersaturation occurs as a result of air rising and cooling as it rises because that's of course now thunder clouds form all the time um but I don't it's hard for me to see how you can tap that um at a low elevation um just about the sea surface uh there would certainly be some cases where a breeze blew over warm water and then to |
| 54:46 | a cooler area where you would have super saturation at sea level but that's a relatively unusual phenomenon I believe it wasn't dead at sea level and we were using a flare which was really quite hot and so there would have been some a rising to get it started it didn't happen instantly it was a few minutes after we released the the flats what we did in an area where there's convection carrying the air upwards effectively providing creation centers a trapping an airplane flew through it and made measurements of the nuclei look |
| 55:27 | thanks I'd like to move on uh I'd just like to commend John Nissen for uh sharing the uh the SRM storyline I think it was uh it's such a good uh starting point and I think there's been a range of of really useful uh suggestions and um so I I hope that that can get some some good uh good results now um uh I'd like to move on to our next point which is uh our uh MCB uh discussions and um so I I'd like to uh to introduce that uh by uh giving a bit of background so um at the uh conference in Cambridge uh |
| 56:12 | last month on Albedo enhancement um Alan gadion was there a few uh a few others were there and uh and also um before that conference I was able to spend some time with Stephen uh in Edinburgh uh working on uh where things are at with with Marine Cloud brightening and uh and Stephen was was able to uh invest in a a large uh workshop for uh climate engineering and related Technologies and uh and also uh equipment for that and uh I think uh Steven's initiative in um uh in in providing uh this uh this support is is of immense value now uh |
| 56:59 | Cambridge continues to work on uh uh in with support of the uh the blue uh calling initiative um on uh how Marine Cloud brightening can possibly work and uh several of us including uh Daniel and uh and Alan and Rebecca um uh I see the uh high value in uh in supporting uh Stephen's uh leadership in uh in in taking forward uh in seeking investment to uh to study the next steps uh for marine Cloud brightening and uh so we've prepared a draft uh business pitch uh um uh pitch deck to uh to seek investment and uh the amount that we uh |
| 57:51 | we propose to uh to seek is uh five million US Dollars and the uh the key issue is that if you uh if you look at the um analysis that uh for example Diamond that Al produced of uh of where Marine Cloud brightening is at there's a whole series of uh uh oceanographic uh questions that we'll need research but the uh the initial point that needs to be proved is that um sub Micron mono disperse particles uh can effectively be produced and so it's this the generation of uh MCB is uh the uh the first uh major |
| 58:39 | point and we see uh we see three uh areas that are that need work and that's uh firstly the technology itself and uh and Stephen has uh developed uh uh quite an extensive proposal on uh on how to uh how how to prove the uh the ability and as he mentioned earlier in this talk the uh uh Wafers uh using um uh to produce uh nozzles of uh various designs uh in a a wind tunnel with uh various specifications so that's the the major guts of what's needed and uh and then the other areas that need work uh uh computer modeling and uh Alan |
| 59:28 | Gaiden is an expert on that at the national Center for atmospheric science at Leeds University and um and and then um because a lot of the modeling work that's been done within the gmip community uh has had assumptions which uh uh can be challenged and and so uh having uh uh giving Stephen the opportunity to to uh take some intellectual leadership on on what questions should be modeled and work with Alan on that would be of immense value and the uh the third major point is uh uh messaging and uh the uh the |
| 1:00:12 | Hulk need to engage in public conversation about uh Marine Cloud brightening and related issues now I should have mentioned of course that um Brian Von Hudson is also a part of uh our uh our group who've been developing this proposal and and Brian's position as leader of the uh the climate Foundation gives us the uh the ability to uh to tap into the resources of the climate Foundation uh to administer and and manage um a grant funding which is uh which is what we'd like to uh obtain and uh and so uh Brian's success in Marine |
| 1:00:57 | permaculture and obtaining an x-price Grant is uh is of immense value in uh in creating a proposal that that we think uh should be of high interest and in the context of uh um the uh George Soros remarks at uh at the Munich security conference this year uh specifically endorsing uh Steven's work uh the it's uh it's of Great Value now we would like to partner with uh several of the uh other uh MCB researchers around the world and we we principally see the Cambridge Center for climate repair and the work uh connected to the |
| 1:01:41 | MCB group at the University of Washington and also the uh the MCB field trials uh that are underway uh for the Great Barrier Reef in Australia as uh as the leads in that space so uh so that's the overview of uh of where we're at and uh we uh look forward to uh to sharing a pitch deck when it's uh when it's agreed with a with a broader audience and uh uh invite Stephen to uh uh sorry I I'll make one further comment and that is um Doug Grant has been uh also uh engaged with the discussion uh Doug's |
| 1:02:26 | argument and uh which uh has created a you know quite a lot of uh um uh conversation within a small group Doug's argument has been that um Steven's proposals for the autonomous deployment vessels uh uh have uh have flaws and uh and Doug argues that unless we include an analysis of the deployment method at the start then uh then we uh our our whole project will fail and I I feel that that's um and that's not uh not a a good view that uh what we need to do is prove the that we can generate MCB before we even |
| 1:03:13 | start um uh seeking money for the deployment of MCB uh so uh so anyway that's that's that's where we're at uh Stephen would you like to add to what I've said okay um first of all I uh the only reason that I uh started working on uh the spray vessels was John Latham asked me to do this he he he had worked out all the stuff about Tumi and he heard that I was working on an idea for making the sea evaporate Faster by spraying much bigger drops and he asked me if I could design the hardware so that's what I where I began |
| 1:03:56 | uh I think if we hadn't done this people would say but how on Earth are you ever going to get the spray produced so I was quite glad to have some ideas uh I'd be very very pleased to hear from anybody who's got uh worries about them because the the the more I get the worries now the better chance we have of sorting them out so perhaps you could ask uh your your Doug uh whatever his name was sorry uh to tell me what what he doesn't like about spray vessels I'd be very grateful I I don't I I like to |
| 1:04:35 | have problems early okay I'll tell you now a bit about the experiment I want to do uh everybody who starts thinking about this thinks about the diameter of the spray and the trouble is that if you if you understand the cola work the diameter spray varies according to what the local relative humidity is and what you should forget completely about the diameter and just think about the mass and the chemical nature of what you're trying to spray and I've heard from Cambridge that troubles they had trying to measure the uh the drops and |
| 1:05:13 | they said it was none of the measurements agreed and it was all different and horrible and miserable the trouble is they were trying to measure the size of a liquid drop and that that is completely meaningless unless you know everything about the the mass of salt and the relative humidity So the plan is to make a ring of air inside a plastic tube and you can get very cheap plastic and lay flat form it's mainly used for making shopping bags but you can get any which you want and I'm going to get a 40 inch wide lay |
| 1:05:51 | flat tube which has got two lots of 40 inches so that'll give me a 600 millimeter diameter minor diameter toroid and it's going to be 10 meters in diameter and the next thing I want to do is to take some air through a deep freeze to bring its temperature down to -18 and that strips all the water vapor out of it and I can put it through uh a ulpa filter that's a really super quality filter to get all the dust and aerosols out of it and I can warm it up again and pump it inside this circular very dry very clean air tube so now I've |
| 1:06:40 | got my my test tube and this is my test tube I've got control of its humidity and it's it's a pollution and everything with all the people who are trying to work in the open air they are sharing their test tube with eight billion other people who are not telling them what they're doing with their experiments but just generally making a complication and you've got no control at all we chemistry really got going when people started using pure chemicals and clean test tubes and that's what we have to do we want to be |
| 1:07:13 | in control of every experimental variable so now I've got this very clean air and I can blow it round the inside of the of the toroid and that'll mean that whatever happens inside is going to have a fairly even concentration we don't want to do it with us stuff that's just come out of a of a jet and it's very uneven and then what I can do is I can inject some salt solution of known concentration and this will evaporate very very quickly because the humidity is so low and then I'll have |
| 1:07:50 | this cloud of salt particles zooming around in around this this Taurus they won't fall very fast because uh they're so small and if you work out how the free uh silver falling speed it's it's completely negative compared with the turbulence and then what I can do is I want to put in a a number which is going to give me anywhere between 50 to 100 to maybe a thousand nuclei per cubic centimeter and I can do that exactly by choosing how long I do the injection for it so just be a few seconds and then what I can do is I can add |
| 1:08:34 | various amounts of liquid water uh as a fine spray and that will now condense on the particles and will get drops and I can work out how fast I can control how much water I'm putting in and watch how fast the the cloud drops are growing and I can continue this with them swirling around and probably to get to the size of approaching a raindrop I'll be having to go for quite a long time a couple of hours perhaps but I can watch this process and count it with a laser instrument called a Malvern spray Tech |
| 1:09:15 | 20 minutes to go so um I it that's I I really appreciate um that uh summary of the uh the the technology um but uh what I suggest we do is uh invite uh Rebecca and Daniel to uh to comment on uh on where this uh where this process uh is is at if that's okay uh Rebecca hi everyone what I think is um we're iterating between the detailed science which Stephen has just outlined and um we're using a Google Documents methodology to save the working papers so that they're all in one place and the working group can find |
| 1:10:01 | them I've been enjoying writing them up and putting them into a table of content so that every piece of work that Stephen does has a place in the project and we know why has he produced it is it relevant which stage of the project like it's obviously a series of projects but when is it relevant for that kind of thing um I also think that our expertise of the group in preparing exactly what we try to do in even United one today of storyline is really a very pleasurable thing for the people in the group at the moment |
| 1:10:36 | we're working out how to message what herb said and a Herb's still there um what's the problem and why will this help um how does it deal with Net Zero and all that so we're kind of iterating some big picture down into science and then back up into messaging um so I think that's oh hi her nice to see you maybe you're eating your lunch or your dinner or something whatever time of day it is there um anyway it's a very enjoyable project and I think what we've all been doing is not wanting to share it widely early |
| 1:11:11 | because it gets quite chaotic with different version control and everything but um perhaps even in the next Fortnight like this is up to Stephen he's the Project Director but it may be appropriate to send it out for um pranked comment in the next Fortnight um the one thing I also want to say is that Alan gadion is um totally and utterly focusing us on which particular experts can be involved how does what money do we need to pay them what's the politics of certain people there are Cuts going on in various different universities |
| 1:11:48 | which is you know that's been happening here in Australia as well it's probably continual but we haven't quite placed it yet with the budget amount um and working out who can do what and who wants to do what and who should be asked sponsoring in but not not a small project team but the next layer down of who's actually going to be involved in this stage so until that is all sorted it is sensitive and can't be shared so I hope that's a good summary thanks Rebecca let's hear from Daniel and then Jonathan's got his hand |
| 1:12:20 | up as well but first Daniel yeah um as I said initially I thought it was a really good um start to the messaging and the document um in terms of uh what you know Robert's initial um formats and the sort of depth of it and everything and I think it's good for getting some figures in there um and some other things um I had actually I'd recommended um adding more weight to it by bringing in Steven's company and uh see Alan Guardians organization as well so it seems like a bigger thing um but I'd in the background I've been |
| 1:13:01 | working with Stephen on on some branding issues I thought and um I'm I'm sort of I thought it was good when you had it before just talking about Stephen but if you bring in a company um I'm obviously being a marketing person I'd um basically it turns out I've got a fundamental difference of opinion uh with Stephen on the on the branding um so that's something that I'm finding not the most um easy thing to to compromise on the document I know that Robert you tried a good compromise between two logos on |
| 1:13:37 | that but uh that's uh yeah that's something we'll have to uh resolve some Alberts obviously I think yeah yeah that's that's what you've said it previously to me I can see that um you're more than an engineer you have your uh like an artist you help your view of how you want to portray your your how you want your art to portray your your engineering prowess and I can see you have that particular idea and um yeah I won't go into that but um just say I want to focus on other areas of that but I I think um |
| 1:14:18 | you know I'm very much about adding weights to the the organization as a whole and um having worked at a company you know as my day job where they've sort of spent ridiculous amounts on rebranding and that sort of thing um I can see um the value in some of that um but uh yeah um thanks Daniel I'm happy to do that foreign yeah thanks I just have a quick question whenever I have my hand up it's probably just a quick question so this is for Stephen Stephen the apparatus that you were describing uh |
| 1:14:57 | for the controlled uh measurement is that like a are you image envisioning a one meter by one meter by one meter apparatus or a 10 meter it's 10 meters in diameter okay so that's what you call the major diameter of the Taurus and the minor diameter is 600 millimeters and it's got a sag in two places so that you can get material draining down and be collected if there will there will be salt in the end of an experiment and I want that to trickle down and put leave very big lumps of salt uh which don't uh won't be getting into the Earth |
| 1:15:41 | at the Airstream so 10 meters by that round for the big ring and uh 0.6 of a meter for the minor diameter thank you um okay so Stephen did you want to comment again no that's it thanks look uh I I think that that's a a useful overview uh of uh of where we're at um can I uh can I just check if uh if anyone else um would like to uh uh ask any questions on on the uh MCB uh agenda Point uh otherwise we'll move on uh thanks very much everyone so uh now the uh the final agenda point that we had um was um the well the the wording that I uh |
| 1:16:36 | used for it was climate cooling effects which was uh something that we've actually already um had a bit of a conversation uh on in the context of the SRM storyline but uh it's it's this uh this broad question of uh how do we assess the um the merits of uh of different methods and it uh it links to this question of the zero emission commitment you know what's the cooling effect uh of uh algor's assertions uh you know how uh what What's the process for processing that so uh uh happy to uh to hand over |
| 1:17:18 | to anyone who would like to uh to comment further on on this topic can I have a word here uh I I I'm sure that the James Hansen uh pipeline argument is very very strong and it's getting people to understand that but there are two other points you could make that might appeal to the the the the the the doubters the first is that uh when you put a bit of toast into toaster it doesn't go Brown immediately it takes quite a lot of time several maybe a minute for it to turn brown and then maybe it'll go black if you leave |
| 1:17:58 | it in there so this gives people the idea of things not having happening instantly and the idea of time constants and the time it takes to get to two-thirds of wherever it's going to get to and this is really what uh James Henson is saying and what man is is not saying so that's the delay the second thing is that there's about 40 times more CO2 in the oceans than in the atmosphere we've been putting it in for a long time now some of it gets turned into calcium carbonate and someone gets turned into |
| 1:18:32 | Plankton but there's still a hell of a lot of CO2 in the ocean and it can go from the atmosphere to the ocean very quickly and it can go from the ocean back to the atmosphere very quickly if the vapor pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere is reduced so you're not dealing with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere you're thinking about another source of it where there's 40 times more so this gets people into realizing that just Net Zero is desirable but it's completely inadequate and then you can bring in the idea that |
| 1:19:12 | it could be done provided that you had time travel and the the money and funding and research we're putting into time travel is completely negligible so we must blame all our decision makers for not funding with work on time travel if we want to get Net Zero to be actually useful you've raised this time travel uh point and it's really just a joke because the time travel is completely impossible and and so uh you know the the merits it's not actually Einstein says you can do it the trouble is you have to be moving at |
| 1:19:48 | the speed of light or close to a black hole them but anyway anyway it's like no it's what like it's a it's a sort of way of saying that um the uh you know fixing the climate by a mission reduction alone is is physically impossible yeah and uh you know I I prefer to you know try to stick to the literal statement rather than make you know cynical jokes that many people won't get you know they might remember that though they might remember the joke yeah uh yeah that's that's true but also they might not get the joke and |
| 1:20:23 | you know that's uh that's that's often the problem I'm just going to to share a diagram that that I uh made a while ago about um the the best outcome from from that zero emissions um you know the circus trick of um of balancing um plates on sticks now uh it's it's entirely possible to uh to have to do this in a in a stable way as long as you keep uh moving the sticks but as soon as you stop moving the sticks then then the plates fall down and uh to me that that that's uh like what what they're talking |
| 1:21:02 | about is uh you know let's um allow the uh the temperature to rise to two and a half degrees and then uh above and then and then keep it stable at that point and our goal seems to be saying that then the temperature will start to fall but it just completely ignores the risk of um saying tipping points uh you know this uh that this whole literature around uh tipping points is uh is just um uh assumed to be zero uh from uh from this uh zero emission commitment um literacy uh so yeah it's there's there's |
| 1:21:50 | such a a big problem within the ipcc modeling that uh you know various people have commented that uh what whatever is not uh can't be measured is assumed to be zero and and that's just a basically flawed um a scientific method Rebecca since we've only got eight minutes left I would like to make a wrap-up comment which is probably back under a gender item one um Clive Ellsworth in France I'm slightly changing the topic off this one if that's okay um of course yes thank you Clive Ellsworth and France ersta have a quite |
| 1:22:31 | far Advanced with yet another methodology which is very very very similar to MCB but using what they call artificial loose dust which is some clay but it's artificial so that it doesn't have certain of the problems of clay the good thing is the science is pretty similar plus the deployment is going to be pretty similar so in terms of getting alternative methods up and running um this black one completed that almost I would say 85 on the work that our little team is doing to get the MCB up and running um what's this space because Clyde is |
| 1:23:09 | presenting to Bright spark and me fan action on Wednesday UK time and after that he's going to circulate the slide deck to everyone and I think it will blow your mind because um it's got slide two is directly dealing anyway I won't say what it is but that's one parallel activity that's happening um the other one is just repeating if you really want to make yourself feel happy and think that your grandchildren or your whoever the animals in the backyard and everything you've got a future do have a look at that video that |
| 1:23:41 | I circulated because that's yet another stream the basic thing on there is what I'll just quickly say it's about um regeneration and it's a lot of work that's been done here in Australia about how if you create little water holes then it saves the water and the area around the water hole becomes green and regenerates and in in droughts those particular Farmers that have been doing that have had um Greenery and etc etc and ecosystems and the particular value add that Adam Long's group is doing is the |
| 1:24:17 | infrastructure to create little Creeks all over the country so it's sort of like re-re uh Greening the Sahara where they're not talking about that but it has been done in Rajasthan and um he wants to get it going here in Australia so anyway it is what I'm really saying is that um a metaphor something like all rivers are leading into the um Tigris and from there that you'll all go into the ocean and so forth and I've got a lot of Hope at the moment thanks Rebecca um now we're we've got five minutes to |
| 1:24:54 | go um I I just like to invite John to make some wrap-up comments okay um well thank you thank you very much for the um support on this idea of a uh uh a storyline uh is obviously it needs strengthening and I think one of the uh are a couple of things that need strengthening we need uh more more to explain the ipcc position uh what everybody has been told uh why why it's wrong um why it's why it's uh well it's totally inadequate to just rely on zero emissions uh so that's one strong thing another |
| 1:25:58 | thing is to broaden SRM to include [Music] um uh uh Cloud removal or um whatever Staton suggested clearance I think it was Cloud clearance um uh we were your perhaps also to discuss surface methods which we haven't done uh today um and uh so uh and the other the other thing we've discussed today is is to is to get around the table and do the the actual calculations um necessary because you know Kevin Kevin and I have agreed on on various things including how much extra Heap might be going to the Arctic I mean we we |
| 1:27:01 | based that on various things people have said about the the temperature of the ocean Rising um in the in the waters entering the Arctic and what kind of volume that is um so so we we should do this because we shouldn't be uh we shouldn't be saying that we can do something when we can't and I think we need to reassure people about stratospheric aerosol injection uh it has got a terrible bad name immediately you talk about uh SO2 sulfur dioxide people think of acid rain and it's a you know it's a nasty |
| 1:27:52 | chemical and it smells horrible um actually when it's very dilute it doesn't smell horrible and you get it in forests and then if I took Plankton blooms as well produced the kind of forest smell as well from the south of the dark says so um we have to do a lot more persuasion on how uh on stratospheric aerosol injection because it is all our best bet at the moment for rephrasing the Arctic I think we have to face up to that whether we like it or not so that's my conclusion thanks let's hear from herb then Daniel |
| 1:28:40 | yeah I just wanted to um mention I don't know if anyone hopefully whether you saw my uh post yesterday maybe because it was Sunday some people didn't see it where I put that New York Magazine article that just came out a couple days ago that extolls the the need for geoengineering and as I wrote in that post I've never seen a you know General magazine article that positive and that's sophisticated in I mean not only saying why we need it but why the moral hazard argument is and almost all the other arguments against it are |
| 1:29:17 | so I strongly encourage you to take a look at it and and again as I wrote it's a little misleading because it's the headline was focused on the um that with that white paint uh proposal but after three or four paragraphs the author for whatever reason excuse me made that made the you know the sort of the general pitch so if you haven't looked at it please look at it and uh you know circulate it use it quote from it uh it's you know I think uh hopefully you know the last thing I'll say about that is David wall as |
| 1:29:51 | well so I think most of you know was a writer for New York Magazine five years ago and he wrote that half-breaking article pointing out that the climate crisis is much worse than mainstream climate science has indicated and it made a huge difference and this is in the same publication a different writer and I I think if if we do everything we can to amplify that article uh and maybe it can begin to have the same kind of impact uh that David Wallace Wells article had some years ago so that's what that's the one I want to say |
| 1:30:26 | thanks Daniel um yeah I was just gonna ask John um just uh in after obviously Steven's explanation of uh his his figures for calling uh requirements for the Arctic and talking about the latent heat um and then Stevenson mentioned that John had this in his figures assumed that all the ice had gone at that point is that so I mean is that the case John in your figures that you were assuming without ice bringing the ice pack no no uh no I uh in in our in the calculation with Kevin we we ignored the extra cooling that you needed to refreeze the |
| 1:31:13 | ice uh we just concentrated on the uh the Albedo loss which could amount to one one what a globally averaged uh that means uh half of Peter walked focused of uh heating focused in the Arctic uh which is why you need to direct your cooling into the art clip uh which you could do not necessarily by direct Cooling in the Arctic but by cooling the water playing into the Arctic uh which fortunately most of the water North have 50 degrees most of the surface water including big rivers are flowing towards uh the Arctic so if you |
| 1:32:05 | could if you call that you're you're mimicking what milankovic Cycles do uh when that when they when they change the climate uh by either giving a a warming signal in the uh north northern hemisphere summer or occurring circuit um they bring on the The Ice Ages or the interglacial periods it's all done through that amazing mechanism um so so the amount of extra water heat entering the both the Albedo and the extra eating of the water which we we estimated heating of water using completely different approaches |
| 1:33:00 | and came to roughly the same competition I mean we can only do things they're a by a factor of uh two or three but we we still came to a conclusion that uh uh using Marine Cloud brightening as defined as Marine Cloud brightening uh was about an order of magnitude too little uh which is I I I'm terribly I'm devastated by it and I can understand Stephen being uh feeling it's it's the change between now the water flowing in from the from Siberia from what it was when the you know when there was plenty of us we're looking for the |
| 1:33:47 | difference not the absolute amount yeah that that's that's what we've been asking okay we'll we'll continue this debate at a later day we've come to the end of the meeting today so uh thank you very much very much everyone for uh for joining and uh I'll circulate the recording and uh appreciate the uh the conversation thank you all thank you everybody thanks bye-bye okay bye |