Climate Solution Methods


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(Click a down arrow to see a short description of the method or click on the method in a colored cell to see a detailed description of the method.)
ScoreMethodsReferences
87Buoyant Flakes

Disseminating long-lived, ultra-slow-release, Buoyant Flakes carrying supplementary nutrients over the ocean surface mirrors what good farmers do on land. The flakes are made mainly from plentiful natural and waste materials using simple baking technology. They are designed to provide the iron, phosphate, silica and trace elements most needed by phytoplankton and seaweed to flourish.
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Develop-
ment Status
Net Cooling Status Net Carbon Status Feasib-
ility
Effect-
iveness
Scal-
ability
Time-
liness
Gating/ Reversi-
bility
Risk Gover-
nance & Social Accept-
ance
Cost SCORE, sum D:L
3 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 3 9 87
This resembles the commonly-used Technical Readiness Level (TRL) classification system, but has three levels, not nine. Moreover, as it will typically include the consideration of several technologies, concepts and information thought useful for the Method, these are rolled into a single, overall measure of technical readiness.
This provides an indication of what is the individual Method’s potential contribution to global cooling at its maximum feasible scale. Its typical measurement unit would be negative watts per square metre (-W/m2).
This roughly coincides with the number of gigatonnes of carbon (GtC/yr) that the Method could be expected to sequester at its maximum scale, from the atmosphere, for a period equal to or greater than a century. GtC for a fraction of a century are reduced by that fraction. For simplicity, the criterion omits consideration of other important greenhouse gases (such as methane) and airborne particulates. A red score indicates a value <1, yellow 1-5, green >5 GtC/yr.
This is a composite measure indicating how achievable is the negative Net Radiative Forcing (equals Global Cooling) that combines the effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM), or Earthly albedo enhancement, and Thermal Radiation Management (TRM) measures designed to increase heat (long wave) radiation off-planet when the Method is deployed at maximum feasible scale. Where quantitative estimates or surrogates are unavailable, qualitative estimates are made.
This is the likely Cost-Effectiveness of the Method. When it can be quantified, it is an estimate of the current US dollar cost per negative watts per square metre ($/(-W/m2)) or the Net Negative Radiative Forcing of all the cooling effects of the Method, wherever they occur on the planet above the base of the marine mixed layer. Provisionally, Red might be >$10a, Yellow $1-10a, and Green <$1a/(-W/m2), where “a” is an appropriate factor changed to reflect the actual likely range of costs. If not readily quantified, then qualitative estimates or guesses are to be made.
Scalability has several different parameters or components, any of which may be or become limiting. One component of scalability is the proportion of the world’s surface or volume that can be used to deploy it. A second is whether there is/could be sufficient raw materials/chemicals, concentrations, available energy, temperature, pressure, space or habitat, and manufacturing capability to deploy it at optimum scale in a useful timeframe. A third is whether the species, diversity and biomass of them are, or could be made sufficient, and sufficiently capable, to carry out their part in the Method. This includes humanity, its robotic helpers, laws/regulations, agreements/conventions, finances, and politicosocioeconomic practices. A fourth is whether there is, or could be constructed, whatever is required in the way of software, AI/algorithms, datastores, supporting technologies, and communications necessary for optimal scalability. A fifth is a requirement for modicum of peace&security, health, civil order, and cooperation needed for the scalability to be achieved and maintained, together with limits to food, environmental and social stresses in key populations.
This relates to how quickly the Method could be researched, developed, deployed globally, and take substantial effect - noting that many Methods will typically have some effects, both positive and negative, that are delayed by years or longer. Initially, and for a crash or moonshot program (though with existential urgency, funding, and possibly widespread participation), a Green score might have a strongly, net beneficial effect by the deployed Method occurring in <5 years, Yellow in 5-25 years, and Red in >25 years. GATING/REVERSIBILITY: Gating is whether the Method can be tested at increasing scale, whilst learning by doing to address adverse effects or cost. Reversibility relates to whether, and how quickly, a trial can be stopped and/or its effects reversed. Reversibility might be scored thus. Major adverse effects cease or substantially decline within: Green <1 month, Yellow 1- 12 months, Red >1 year.
Gating is whether the Method can be tested at increasing scale, whilst learning by doing to address adverse effects or cost. Reversibility relates to whether, and how quickly, a trial can be stopped and/or its effects reversed. Reversibility might be scored thus. Major adverse effects cease or substantially decline within: Green <1 month, Yellow 1- 12 months, Red >1 year.
Risk is used in the Risk Management or risk impact assessment sense of being compared to what would be likely to happen without the intervention. It deals with probabilities and consequences of risk events if they are realised. It compares the products of the likelihood of the risk occurring within a given time (meaning perhaps millennia for climate risks) and its impact. As climate risk is now an existential one that is now happening, our interest lies in determining quickly which Methods have acceptable risks and ones which do not risk the social acceptance of most other interventions. Green means start gated testing urgently now, Yellow means seek ways to reduce likely adverse aspects, Red means research now, but do not deploy more widely unless equivalent Methods are insufficiently effective at cooling.
This refers to the likelihood that existing forms of governance can be enhanced to satisfy the bulk of the global community of the necessity to deploy the more prospective of the Methods, first at local, then national and then international levels. Extensive community engagement is likely to be required, following proof of concept, and explanations of its likely costs, opportunities and effects. Green = (eventually) potentially acceptable and with little downside, Yellow = has some modest downsides, most of which can be offset. Red = social acceptance is unlikely unless other, comparable Methods fail.
As the Effectiveness criterion refers to the developed and globally-scaled cost of direct cooling by the Method in question, this Cost refers more to the RD&D and capital costs of researching, then deploying it at different scales and in different variants, together with the costs of Measuring, Reporting and Verifying (MRV) the results of using the Method, probably by independent bodies. It also includes insurance and recompense costs and the likely cleanup costs afterwards, together with reductions for any revenues gained, including possible carbon and cooling credits, should they eventuate. Green = likely to be profitable, Yellow = requires modest subsidies for industry and NGO participation, Red = would require extensive and ongoing public subsidy. Source TBD.
A summation of the above scores, using Red = 1, Yellow = 3, and Green = 9. Total possible = 99.
Short DescriptionDisseminating long-lived, ultra-slow-release, Buoyant Flakes carrying supplementary nutrients over the ocean surface mirrors what good farmers do on land. The flakes are made mainly from plentiful natural and waste materials using simple baking technology. They are designed to provide the iron, phosphate, silica and trace elements most needed by phytoplankton and seaweed to flourish.
DescriptionPrevious attempts to farm the sea or to increase oceanic carbon sequestration have used soluble, artificial chemicals that do not remain near the surface. However, long-lived, ultra-slow-release buoyant flakes can be disseminated pneumatically annually by ship over selected ocean areas. The tiny flakes are comprised of natural, organic materials and mineral wastes. Like a self-feed system, these do not so much release the nutrients to the environment, as to make them available at the sunlit sea surface where the phytoplankton which need them can 'suck' them out of the exposed mineral particles in the flakes using their transporter enzymes or ligands. Thus, there is little chance of either over-fertilisation, eutrophication, toxicity, or of the nutrients being lost rapidly to the dark depths. The foundation of each flake is a single rice husk, rich in the opaline silica needed by diatoms. Glued to this by plant-derived lignin hot-melt glue is a sealed matrix of air and minerals designed to provide phytoplankton communities with whatever nutrients are wanting in that part of the ocean. As dark blue ocean waters are deficient in one or more macronutrients or trace elements (typically phosphate, iron, silica and transition metals - reactive nitrogen nutrient being able to be made from air by cyanobacteria), using buoyant flakes could turn these blue or desert ocean regions into productive, turquoise seas. Krill and most other diel vertically migrating (DVM) species consume much phytoplankton in surface waters at night, then respire and excrete the carbonaceous wastes in the dark, safe depths of up to a kilometre deep during daylight hours, thereby sequestering its carbon content.
Key FunctionsIncreases the biomass and biodiversity of marine life; sequesters atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) securely as carbonaceous seabed ooze & rock, refractory dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and benign, dissolved, alkaline bicarbonate; increases oceanic albedo (reflectiveness) that cools the surface waters; increases atmospheric DMS aerosols that nucleate or brighten cooling marine clouds.
Innovation DependenciesNone known
QuantificationBUOYANT FLAKE OCEAN FERTILIZATION (BFOF) The dissemination of nutrient-bearing buoyant flakes over ocean surface waters that are deficient in one or more key nutrients in order to increase phytoplankton growth, ocean biomass and biodiversity is a method of climate improvement that has been long known. At Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in July 1988, John Martin stated humorously (but with serious intent) in a lecture his iron hypothesis: “give me a half a tanker of iron (scattered over ocean surface waters and absorbed by phytoplankton) and I will give you an ice age”. Now, our Buoyant Flakes will not only carry iron oxide waste, but also phosphatic clay waste, opaline silica (in rice husks) and micronutrients required by phytoplankton. The algae the flakes nutriate would also brighten the dark sea surface, nucleate solar-reflecting (cooling) marine cloud, increase marine biomass (fish, mollusc and crustacean stocks), and sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide – at first in the euphotic (sunlit) zone, then by virtue mainly of diel vertically migrating (DVM) species, such as krill, lanternfish and bristlemouths, into the ocean depths where it would stay for up to millennia (depending on depth and location). Now rice husk production is around 130Mt/yr and has little in the way of beneficial use. Rice husks contain ~17% silica. If 100Mt/yr of husk is made available for climate restoration use, and the husks are turned into buoyant flakes containing a mix of about 60% husk, 15% lignin glue, and 25% minerals that would make 167Mt/yr of flake. Now, the iron-rich red mud tailings from alumina refining contain about 47% iron, whilst Florida’s phosphatic clay wastes residual to phosphate extraction contain about 10% phosphorus. Hence, the rice husks would be adding 17Mt/yr of opaline silica to the surface ocean whilst, if each mineral were to be half of the 42Mt of minerals added to the husks, then each year we would be adding 10Mt of iron and 2Mt of phosphorus to the ocean surface, most of which would be taken up by living organisms. Furthermore, because the nutrients would mainly end up in oceanic biomass, they would tend to be recycled many times by the food chain and thus multiply oceanic biomass and its beneficial effects. 10Mt/yr of iron would fill many of Martin’s tankers, and would be disseminated thinly over most of the oligotrophic seas, not just the Southern Ocean. Such nutrient supplementation would tend to render most dark blue seas into becoming a lighter, green or turquoise colour. The increase in albedo caused by this is not readily determined except by multi-spectral measurement by satellite over cloud-free areas, though an appreciation of its potential effectiveness might be gained simply from viewing photographs of algal blooms caused by blown dust or volcanic plumes. However, as algal blooms from over-zealous nutrient supplementation are to be avoided, the actual gain in albedo would be considerably less. Now, open ocean has an albedo of about 0.06, whilst green grass has one of 0.25. Omitting the important factors of cloud cover and cloud albedo, this means that turquoise waters nutriated by buoyant flakes might have an average daytime albedo of around 0.12, effectively doubling that of open, cloud-free ocean. The cooling effect of this in watts per square metre is to be determined, but is likely to be substantial. Additional to this cooling effect would be that provided by the DMS emissions of the additional phytoplankton that would cause additional marine cloud nucleation and hence additional albedo. Over the entire ocean such additional ocean biomass would result in an increase in carbon flow to the depths of the marine Biological Pump. This flow tends not to extend greatly to deep waters where the water is warm and well-oxygenated, because of bacterial action. However, in cooler waters, and particularly when facilitated by DVM species, the flow is likely to be considerable. It is thought that the DVM activity of the ~400Mt of Antarctic Krill, Euphausia superba, on its own is capable of sequestering large amounts of carbon as respired carbon dioxide or carbonaceous faeces, whilst it digests its nightly meal consumed near the sea surface, at depths of around a kilometre. Assuming that its average gut content is 5% of its bodyweight, that half of this gut content is water, and that half of that is carbon, this means that Antarctic krill could be sequestering 400 x 0.05 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 5MtC/day or some 18Mt of CO2 equivalent per day. Following long term Buoyant Flake supplementation over most of the global ocean, an expanded krill habitat, and sequestration by the other DVM species, might increase this sequestration rate several times over.
Graphics:
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TechnologyEffectsProjects
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
Methane removal
Ocean Fertilization
Surface Brightening
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Adding nutrients to the ocean to promote the growth of phytoplankton, which can absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis.
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Carbon biosequestration
Cooling
De-acidification
Global cooling
More fish
Possibility of deep sea hypoxia though needed for biosequestration
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Pending
Buoyant flakes made largely from waste materials ultra-slowly release nutrients in continently-remote surface waters to turn the dark blue seas turquoise with phytoplankton and increasing its albedo and that of marine cloud that cools the planet enough to offset current warming
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Disseminating long-lived, ultra-slow-release, Buoyant Flakes carrying supplementary nutrients over the ocean surface mirrors what good farmers do on land. The flakes are made mainly from plentiful natural and waste materials using simple baking technology. They are designed to provide the iron, phosphate, silica and trace elements most needed by phytoplankton and seaweed to flourish.
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Develop-
ment Status
Net Cooling Status Net Carbon Status Feasib-
ility
Effect-
iveness
Scal-
ability
Time-
liness
Gating/ Reversi-
bility
Risk Gover-
nance & Social Accept-
ance
Cost SCORE, sum D:L
3 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 3 9 87
This resembles the commonly-used Technical Readiness Level (TRL) classification system, but has three levels, not nine. Moreover, as it will typically include the consideration of several technologies, concepts and information thought useful for the Method, these are rolled into a single, overall measure of technical readiness.
This provides an indication of what is the individual Method’s potential contribution to global cooling at its maximum feasible scale. Its typical measurement unit would be negative watts per square metre (-W/m2).
This roughly coincides with the number of gigatonnes of carbon (GtC/yr) that the Method could be expected to sequester at its maximum scale, from the atmosphere, for a period equal to or greater than a century. GtC for a fraction of a century are reduced by that fraction. For simplicity, the criterion omits consideration of other important greenhouse gases (such as methane) and airborne particulates. A red score indicates a value <1, yellow 1-5, green >5 GtC/yr.
This is a composite measure indicating how achievable is the negative Net Radiative Forcing (equals Global Cooling) that combines the effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM), or Earthly albedo enhancement, and Thermal Radiation Management (TRM) measures designed to increase heat (long wave) radiation off-planet when the Method is deployed at maximum feasible scale. Where quantitative estimates or surrogates are unavailable, qualitative estimates are made.
This is the likely Cost-Effectiveness of the Method. When it can be quantified, it is an estimate of the current US dollar cost per negative watts per square metre ($/(-W/m2)) or the Net Negative Radiative Forcing of all the cooling effects of the Method, wherever they occur on the planet above the base of the marine mixed layer. Provisionally, Red might be >$10a, Yellow $1-10a, and Green <$1a/(-W/m2), where “a” is an appropriate factor changed to reflect the actual likely range of costs. If not readily quantified, then qualitative estimates or guesses are to be made.
Scalability has several different parameters or components, any of which may be or become limiting. One component of scalability is the proportion of the world’s surface or volume that can be used to deploy it. A second is whether there is/could be sufficient raw materials/chemicals, concentrations, available energy, temperature, pressure, space or habitat, and manufacturing capability to deploy it at optimum scale in a useful timeframe. A third is whether the species, diversity and biomass of them are, or could be made sufficient, and sufficiently capable, to carry out their part in the Method. This includes humanity, its robotic helpers, laws/regulations, agreements/conventions, finances, and politicosocioeconomic practices. A fourth is whether there is, or could be constructed, whatever is required in the way of software, AI/algorithms, datastores, supporting technologies, and communications necessary for optimal scalability. A fifth is a requirement for modicum of peace&security, health, civil order, and cooperation needed for the scalability to be achieved and maintained, together with limits to food, environmental and social stresses in key populations.
This relates to how quickly the Method could be researched, developed, deployed globally, and take substantial effect - noting that many Methods will typically have some effects, both positive and negative, that are delayed by years or longer. Initially, and for a crash or moonshot program (though with existential urgency, funding, and possibly widespread participation), a Green score might have a strongly, net beneficial effect by the deployed Method occurring in <5 years, Yellow in 5-25 years, and Red in >25 years. GATING/REVERSIBILITY: Gating is whether the Method can be tested at increasing scale, whilst learning by doing to address adverse effects or cost. Reversibility relates to whether, and how quickly, a trial can be stopped and/or its effects reversed. Reversibility might be scored thus. Major adverse effects cease or substantially decline within: Green <1 month, Yellow 1- 12 months, Red >1 year.
Gating is whether the Method can be tested at increasing scale, whilst learning by doing to address adverse effects or cost. Reversibility relates to whether, and how quickly, a trial can be stopped and/or its effects reversed. Reversibility might be scored thus. Major adverse effects cease or substantially decline within: Green <1 month, Yellow 1- 12 months, Red >1 year.
Risk is used in the Risk Management or risk impact assessment sense of being compared to what would be likely to happen without the intervention. It deals with probabilities and consequences of risk events if they are realised. It compares the products of the likelihood of the risk occurring within a given time (meaning perhaps millennia for climate risks) and its impact. As climate risk is now an existential one that is now happening, our interest lies in determining quickly which Methods have acceptable risks and ones which do not risk the social acceptance of most other interventions. Green means start gated testing urgently now, Yellow means seek ways to reduce likely adverse aspects, Red means research now, but do not deploy more widely unless equivalent Methods are insufficiently effective at cooling.
This refers to the likelihood that existing forms of governance can be enhanced to satisfy the bulk of the global community of the necessity to deploy the more prospective of the Methods, first at local, then national and then international levels. Extensive community engagement is likely to be required, following proof of concept, and explanations of its likely costs, opportunities and effects. Green = (eventually) potentially acceptable and with little downside, Yellow = has some modest downsides, most of which can be offset. Red = social acceptance is unlikely unless other, comparable Methods fail.
As the Effectiveness criterion refers to the developed and globally-scaled cost of direct cooling by the Method in question, this Cost refers more to the RD&D and capital costs of researching, then deploying it at different scales and in different variants, together with the costs of Measuring, Reporting and Verifying (MRV) the results of using the Method, probably by independent bodies. It also includes insurance and recompense costs and the likely cleanup costs afterwards, together with reductions for any revenues gained, including possible carbon and cooling credits, should they eventuate. Green = likely to be profitable, Yellow = requires modest subsidies for industry and NGO participation, Red = would require extensive and ongoing public subsidy. Source TBD.
A summation of the above scores, using Red = 1, Yellow = 3, and Green = 9. Total possible = 99.