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| 00:03 | yeah it the first night was vicious I it's much better now but my goodness it was tough on them yeah well it's it's certainly hopefully it's not as bad as that fast they had some years ago where quite a few people died and there was lots of problems yeah the 79 one I escaped going on that by just a whisker yeah yeah my my son did it one year after that and had a a reasonable time fortunately yes well I've got friends that are approaching the Rock right now all right okay on them there's another brew and there's |
| 00:38 | also the lovely Steven in Edinburgh we're just um having discussions about the weather where we are and what's been happening and so on there's France hello France lovely to see you hell Rebecca guess what everyone BR and I are related is that right BR something like that anyway yeah surely he lives right where my my German great great grandparents came from in they went to Australia in um 18 52 and and France Liv right where they came from so Rel went away according to the gold rush you know what France they actually |
| 01:23 | left because they wanted to not do national service it was after the war of 1848 and all the men were escaped because they didn't want to do national service and so they thought Australia seems like a good place to go and half of that Village came here the men and the women to Melbourne so anyway there's a bit of social history for anyone I see and a small world eh yeah well good evening everybody or good afternoon or good good morning 6 o' in the morning the Australians uh feel I need to keep reminding everybody that morning |
| 02:03 | John another early bird here another early bird yes yeah okay well here we are again um what do we want to talk about today welcome everybody what do we want to talk about today I've got a few ideas I've got one or two questions actually um or or sort of ideas so um some of us have been talking about um the role of DMS dimethyl sulfide from figh Plankton I've started to read about scientific papers about it uh for providing clouds and cooling the oceans we all know we need to that the oceans need to be |
| 02:48 | cooled um I suppose so it's kind of any comments or or help and in addition and in addition to that the the albo from from pH plank from coia for bloom particular yeah there's that too the classical paper is charson and Lovelock the CLW so claw paper yeah yeah just sorry just to point about that there have been quite a few subsequent papers not all of which are entirely convinced by all of the claw hypothesis I think some parts of it are accepted but there are some parts that are certainly still a bit um let's say |
| 03:27 | controversial or at least in doubt yeah um I'm what am I what if I just show this one this a wonderful paper that's just come out uh this one yeah this one DMS Cloud precipitation and radiation responses um so this is 2017 or 2018 uh they take a lot of the I think they mentioned claw um and they take a lot of uh results from other scientists and they try and model try and do some modeling but one of the things they say is that there so little um measurements have been taken it's a bit tricky but one rather interesting thing they say is |
| 04:11 | well particularly interesting thing is um they say coral reefs uh produce a lot of DMS and um and so I'm just looking around and seeing that's mainly dagates that live with corals and also D dagates flates produce a lot of DMS so I don't know any uh D to make clouds there's the paper the paper by by half house housea uh on uh on the on the bunker fuel of paper report he mentions DMS is uh in the northern ocean routes Northern Atlantic Northern Pacific right uh as creating suff I think it's DMS creating |
| 04:59 | uh sufficient cloud so that the bunker fuel uh reduction sulfur reduction is not having much of an effect so that's I'd be kind of interested in what you know the people who who know something about this uh think about that right so you so uh that's you're suggesting another thing there um uh Ron uh you're saying uh so study by um house can you how do you spell house h a u s f a t h e r I think it's a report I don't think it's a peer reviewed paper but it's on the the climate brief he cites a lot of you know |
| 05:42 | other papers uh and he's claiming that the uh he's one of the minimizers of the of the bunker uh sulfur uh uh notion that that's warming the uh the planet he he claims a very minimal figure because he says that you know it just it's already saturated the clouds are already saturated with particles and sulfur is not doing that much because there's this natur right okay size a report okay that's interesting I thought DMS was rather variable you can see it in from satellite images of plankton blooms and |
| 06:23 | things so yeah okay so I may be mistaking mess with something Ethyl Methyl whatever but some kind of natural dimethyl sulfide yeah I don't know how related they are or unrelated yeah DMS is is a product of something I think rather than the initial thing yeah it's it's a sort of Link in the chain isn't it starts something Pion eight or something com that's right indeed um right so that's on the agenda we've got Ron live could we have also an update from your myself and France for example on the |
| 07:01 | slides that you gave last week at um climate action theate and and that is a big biggie because I've been lucky enough to read it and like a lot of people still think that you're doing iron salt Eros salt so I just think um a few minutes on that I would love to hear everyone's reaction or thoughts about it let say right uh I couldn't remember if I'd sent the link out um because you haven't you haven't sent it to everyone you said you were going to right I've been away um so yes okay so I |
| 07:35 | could actually briefly go through that the slides um so this is our climate Catalyst which is um our public name for TOA which even that we we're saying that's tropospheric oxidation aerosol um it's got a bit of titanium in it um but it's not not much it's other things so climate cust um slides and I've been producing a long document and the the last presentation okay let's say some more about that when that comes along people said do a they're all saying do a scientific paper |
| 08:13 | on it and or a white paper or stuff um is Anton there no okay okay anything else while you're on that live then we could um talk about this recent paper that's come out that suggests that um the ocean has got Greener recently yes yes I saw something about that okay so an interesting one um and the various debates as to what that's what's doing that but it's down to the particular species of um phytoplankton that is comfortable under the created conditions and I think the next thing that runs close to that is um |
| 09:00 | uh how a drens work on Surface pollutants and the impact on the surface atmosphere interface um particularly interesting how is suggesting that that Greening is as a result of um pollutants impacting the mix of fighter blank that we have on the surface L uhuh okay that's interesting yeah yeah yeah I think and France is bound to have some things to say about that as well um Brian you got your hand up well I just think On a related note that um the changes in temperature are leading to changes in nutrient level and that's |
| 09:46 | leading to a shift in microalgae assemblages resulting in a change in the ocean color and um this is pretty much confirming many of the theories that we've been using using over the past Dozen Years about the increase in stratification associated with increase in temperature yeah uh so changes in oan temperature um um affecting um I can't remember what you called it was it Community composition or something like that Brian assemblage the uh assembl assemblage uh which means yeah population dynamics of micro algae |
| 10:28 | let's say population Dynamics Dynamics so that's quite a bit to discuss that's we have a very ocean surface warming event going on at the moment the grass on that just keep going up day after day yeah absolutely scary um and green and Ice loss as well just saw a um you see Rec video from Jason box sorry Bruce yeah brw yeah Jason Jason's recent interview on YouTube on the the rainfall on Green land yeah which is a massive change as well and that's big implications yeah okay so so so could we discuss what |
| 11:11 | might be the reasons for the sudden increase in temperature surface uh ocean surface temperature both uh um yeah and we've got both in the Northern Hemisphere and the southern hemisphere so Arctic and yeah I something I saw about that suggested in the Atlantic at least it was connected with perhaps an increasing flow of the Gulf Stream North Atlantic drift pushing more warmer water further but I can't remember the detail now but I'll see if I can find it changes hang on one at a time uh Brian please changes in cloud cover can have a |
| 12:03 | profound effect in a short time scale and that's something we could expect with Alo okay uh so Brian let's just put put throw these in uh changes in cloud cover and someone else was speaking who else was trying to yeah I I was saying that not just Northern Hemisphere and southern hemisphere but also Arctic and and um talk to okay check yeah uh yeah okay so plenty it looks like quite a bit to discuss already as any other I just want to make a general comment that um this really is a Place several people have sort of said |
| 12:53 | oh Clive I don't want didn't want to spoil your nice meeting well these this not these are not meant to be nice meetings that they're meant to be open where uh because it's often difficult to have you know dis disagreements on well SL slow on email and it and it's sort of I don't know you've said you've seen it in my invitation uh it's easier sometimes it's easier when speaking to to sort of try and come to see the other person's point of view or something and and uh resolve a disagreement or or |
| 13:24 | identify what what different you know um measurements your data each person might have seen or or where where where a difference of emphasis is you know it's often you with by speaking please be forthright is what I'm saying okay was there another thing from someone I think we should just add fire impacts because that's pretty topical just for the moment sorry what impacts fire fires oh fire impacts yeah yeah flower impacts fire impacts and when we get when we get to that one um Clive when we get to that one I will |
| 14:02 | I'm happy to give a very short like less than two minutes overview of fire management from an indigenous perspective but if that if we haven't got time on the agenda it doesn't really matter we're try and get that circulated two papers from our Powerhouse Museum about it and it um there's the scientific side of it and the other side of it the cultural side which is always important as well but we may not get time for that okay all right um thank you uh Rebecca so um maybe I should start off |
| 14:36 | with the slides um because uh let's just start off with the slides um I mean this was a present without sort of I suppose doing the whole presentation um but since you asked thank you for asking Rebecca uh this is uh was requested by um spark climate uh who merged with methane action so we know them from me methane action it's really those people that asked for this and and attended it as well um and so uh the reason people haven't had this is because uh I wanted to make sure it had all the right all you know sufficient references |
| 15:19 | so actually if somebody sees a slide that could do with a reference please speak up um just interrupt that's fine um and uh I've been creating a long sort of document with lots of Q&A fact calling it frequently asked questions um that certainly questions that we've asked a lot uh okay so that's that's needs more references as well so I'm working on disseminating this information so this is what it started with I this might interest this group I you've started reading it uh the logic |
| 15:54 | behind it you know ideally would there be a global Society with no war wars or criminals in practice we keep keep us strong military and we lock up murderers so ideally we would restore us climate to pre-industrial conditions um my question well could we prioritize avoidance of polar ice sheet collapse please um you know just prioritize a very bad thing happening um much of climate action you've seen my me talking about Superstition and tabos why address only CO2 when it's so difficult to reduce and remove and I was |
| 16:28 | acknowledging methane action for making the intellectual leap to include methane in in their you know activism uh there additional climate forces into the toolbox so this is you know my slide for a non-technical audience to say look um be open to the other climate forcings Mother Nature uses them scientists study them without taboo we hope you can be open to them throughout this presentation nearest term tipping points I I'm uh so this thing idea about collapse I think it's it's a little bit misleading really isn't it so I just |
| 17:03 | said melt rates will become increasingly difficult to slow down um and I read that the chance of breaching from the world metor organization 1.5 degrees by 2027 is 66% but I saw something today that it already has been somewhere uh 1.5° Centigrade so things really are happening rather sooner than people thought melting is occurring above and below glass years we got warm sea water flowing into Polar circles here's Peter WAMS picture I think many of you have seen of black on the surface of the ice been talking to |
| 17:38 | Peter about that as well um um interacting self-reinforcing feedback mechan mechanisms as uh warned of by Jim Hansen in the 80s uh when he said um if the governments wait until clim the effects of climate change are obvious to members of the public then it's virtually too late to do anything about it and here we are um melt rates are accelerating in Greenland as we know why is the climate accelerating here's a bang up to dat Keeling curve um just keeps on going up uh even today and so increasing greenhouse gas |
| 18:19 | compation uh concentration this is only CO2 we know that the others tend to be going up as well and loss of cooling a soil component pollution this is uh the ship tracks superimposed but um just to make people aware so we'll talk about that in a moment what made the glacial period so cold and here are seven I you know picked with an arrow ice was over a mile thick above Canada and Europe during those times uh and so did do anyone seen uh about the last half an hour the the paper from Martin van herpen and and |
| 18:59 | Matt Johnson and etal uh they measured the effect of dust over the ocean and the effect of iron uh to produce chlorine as we've been France has been saying for over 20 years with iron salt aerosol and they found uh that it explains a lot about methane about the different isotopes of methane that have been measured so it is so that's having an effect that's worth mentioning that paper um if anyone wants a link to that I can send you the link in the chat or someone else can idea okay great um looks nicely written |
| 19:40 | as well uh um so Airborne dust was up to 10 times more abundant than today as seen in ice cores again this is in Brans and renault's 2017 paper which enhanced troposphere troposphere oxidated capacity move methane down to 300 paths per billion Which is less than half what it was even even pre-industrial can we only say it was like likely to have nucleated bright clouds and um increased fighter Plankton wherever the dust landed to make more Marine cloud cover um right so that's a sediment here lots of lowest dust this |
| 20:18 | very fine dust that's made by glaciers grinding on Bedrock more of it when you've got lots more glaas and so this is what we have been saying so it's been helpful for you know these discussions for me to use uh with a non-technical audience but really making trying to make Point as strongly as I possibly can that uh uh I calculate of course these numbers vary but 7 77 divided by 340 that's about 23% so 23% of the sun's energy gets immediately reflected straight back out to space before coming into well it comes down to |
| 20:54 | lowlevel clouds and then goes back out again um and and looking at the cloud cover so this is I found a nice satellite service just from Zoom actually this is zoom I've got a a picture of of the Earth from satellite and this is from um about a week ago I suppose July the July the 15th um and basically you see this seemed to be the most honest one you go to Google Earth and they pick a time there wasn't there weren't many clouds but this this is particular time and you you basically see that there's more cloud cover as we |
| 21:30 | expect and I think we know uh towards the poles or in you know temperate regions where there isn't so much stratification quite naturally it's small figh Plankton we don't get so many clouds in the tropical tropics and subtropics uh so less albo um the over the average Oceanic Cloud fraction is quite I thought found that rather High 72% obviously Less in the tropics and subtropics and um again to make this put me repeat this point that outside polar Circle so I found this in a paper we haven't nobody been discussing this that |
| 22:08 | lowly clouds reflect more heat than they trap but only outside polar Circle so the idea of cooling refreezing I had I had thought we poles could be re refrozen with our climate Catalyst making lots of haze and clouds over the ice but apparently not well of course not in the in the winter um because there wasn't any sun to reflect but uh only so sh says just a couple of months during the midle middle of the summer uh your low low-lying clouds can reflect more heat um from the ice than they trap um here's uh the graph many of us I think |
| 22:52 | know most of us from the ipcc showing the different climate forcings and um and this is a list of those climate forcings um and the top ones that say yes or the ones that climate Catalyst or you know a photocatalytic aerosol um has moves in the right direction so um reduces the the forcing the warming uh components and increases the cooling components and these are the ones it doesn't effect so well not much CO2 not really very much um so this is already again out of date this is says 2.7 watts per square meter uh when you |
| 23:39 | add them all up um you know subtract the aerosol influence but it's now 3.4 watts per meter I saw I think that was from Jason Box's uh video this uh so what what I did was um take those figures and r type them into you know a system that shows them as this is called a waterfall chart these are used a lot in business and this is thing that I pays my rent I teach this stuff and I put in a very simple calculation to alter the components that are affected by climate Catalyst by a variable percentage let me just show you the |
| 24:21 | actual thing itself I've got it here um this is it here um uh change them by 70% and in so red reduce them by 70% and increase the cooling components by 70% so of course you can't imagine it having the same effect on everything but but so it's really for illustrative purposes to try and get our point across that all these effects add up so we have you know CO2 hasn't changed so basically these are all the warming influences and these are the cooling influences and you end up with a total so the to so with |
| 25:00 | nothing happening um as I said this is out of date should say 3.4 now anyway anyway but taking the ipcc figures anyway uh a radus of forcing of 2.7 watts per square meter um and if if taking 70% if the uh these warming influences such as methane so so methane has gone from where is it here CH4 so from from 0. |
| 25:32 | 54 to 0.16 which should be that's 70% off taking 70% off and these have gone these have increased well uh not land use but aerosol Haze and aerosol Cloud have increased okay so that's reduced the total rate rated forcing by 2/3 I'm not understanding what the percentage is applying to is it applying to everything or is it it's it's applying so CO2 hasn't changed go back to zero CO2 starts as 2. |
| 26:05 | 16 and whatever I choose it stays as 2.16 because it's not affected right the ones that are affected they're not they I suppose they're all the same colors it's a bit hard to tell um but but methane tropospheric ozone organic halogens not nitrous oxide particles on snow ice yes because it removes black carbon from the um from the air contrails and Aviation no stratospheric water vapor yes because it moves methane from the troposphere so it doesn't drift up into the stratosphere and you know oxidize and produce water Vape in the |
| 26:38 | stratosphere uh so these those ones I just mentioned change they're the ones uh so um there's one comment on this um you're actually tring to measure rated forcing but you're using the 100e or longer time scales for methane and in my humble opinion you're underestimating the effect of methane because you should be using instantaneous forcing of around 122 times the CO2 forcing for the instantaneous radio forcing that we're experiencing today thank you Bri yeah uh pleasure yeah when you do that you'll |
| 27:18 | find that methane is nearly as large as CO2 before you apply the 70% reduction yeah thank you yeah I did look at that and think that was um going back to the slides it's a bit small the the methane this is very small isn't it normally when whenever I've calculated it's been as you're saying um sort of almost half isn't it as as CO2 yeah in any case much more than that and as as I I think most people in this audience probably know but uh it's directly correlated with cooling because |
| 27:51 | it it's a short term I mean even though it's it the lag effect is long it I mean it has a a long tail it's mostly short term and uh so this is again from from I'm I'm getting this from house father one of his reports that the it's directly cor it's it's in the Greta therber book actually that it's the they're directly correlated with cooling so these are in effect direct climate cooling uh reducing meth methane emissions and other short-term species emission has a direct impact it's not a |
| 28:23 | stop effect it's a flow effect on on cooling so it it should be included in our in our direct climate cooling methods actually okay yeah and to to a famous atmospheric chemist in at scripts institution of orphography he said um methane is our first gear in reducing greenhouse gases because if we can decimate methane in the atmosphere we can reduce the rate of warming by around 30% and that could be done in just a few short years if um if enough enough action is taken so in many ways we can slow our rate of warming by uh you know |
| 29:04 | 30% or more by um addressing the first gear as a priority and then of course working on the longer term question of CO2 and other gases absolutely Brian absolutely yeah yeah um and of course what we're saying is uh if you want to actually if you're willing to actually remove methane from the atmosphere using a photocatalyst it a it's a natural process that does other things you know if you can if you can cope with something a natural process doing lots of things it means there's a lot to study um a lot to consider a lot to |
| 29:40 | measure but um one thing put that in the atmosphere uh in the right places at the right times at you know the right concentrations that it's completely non-toxic um and see that it does it you increases that the amount of haze it could brighten cloud um and so forth you know and and so these all these things should add up so we' actually get so my calculation of reducing the rate of forcing by 2/3 would be more uh with what what you've said Brian of taking the instantaneous U uh figure yeah that's great and this part |
| 30:21 | also does an excellent job of articulating the huge potential for um adjusting aerosol and the profound effect on that net yellow bar on the right when aerosols are properly utilized to uh increased PA brightness I have an issue with um something that was said on the agenda I think Marine the um this problem of nucleating aerosols and Marine Cloud brightening um these I think there's good evidence that small increases in nucleation sites can significantly improve cloud cover and it turns out just a one one or 2% increase in |
| 30:59 | brightness of course has has U effects that could be profound and could contribute to that big blue bar on the right the big uh yeah the big blue bar to okay to increase that yes thank you and I think this is Steven's message as well in fact I could have said a little bit more about this that uh given that 23% of the sun's energy is reflected immediately there's a a looks just just by looking here um sort of back not even a calculation not even a back of the envelope calculation but just just by |
| 31:33 | looking it looks as though you know if it was safe to increase the number of the amount of cloud fraction in these tropical and subtropical areas then that would be able to increase this value quite a bit and you've just said Brian that increasing brightness and Steven is saying the same thing um there's an important important fact here that you're talking about this uh 20 what per but that's over the whole year okay the average of the whole year now that the thing varies a great deal over the year so it could be double that |
| 32:11 | sometimes and zero at other times so you shouldn't think of just what's what you're averaging over the whole year if you can move things around you can be in the some hemisphere all the year around being the right hemosphere migrate yes if you can migrate yeah if you have a mobile um system you you can get the best of both worlds and cherry pick which is the which is the right hemisphere to be in great yeah which is what your um yeah Corvettes do yeah that's why I want Mobility yeah you a link to windy in 3D showing you cloud |
| 32:50 | cover I pick that up but if you play around with that if it's if it's brought up the sphere as I've got it on my screen you'll see that in the southern hemisphere winter it's the only view you can get where you've got anything like 70% cloud cover you come into the northern hemisphere in summer your best cloud cover um view of the planet is 40% cloud cover or so and if you go to the tropics 20% maybe even even see very sparse 20% yeah that's uh and that's a very interesting suggestion that in fact the |
| 33:33 | warmer of the planet regions of the planet are the less cloud cover we're seeing and um you know that has profound effects and correlates with tapio Schneider's results at calch what you need to do is to know where the clouds are going to be if you can forecast them well enough those are the ones you can pick to make brighter yeah mhm yeah the change is pretty rapid the change is pretty rapid yes the clouds move rapidly you can you can forecast very well these days about 10 days ahead great um you you mentioned windy |
| 34:12 | and 3D Brew um I've been using windy and it's I find it's not terribly obvious where the clouds are uh I've have to sort of look and through a bit is it is 3D a different one um you have to pay extra for the one that'll give you 3D oh windy Pro is cheap you know it's about3 a year or something 20 okay absolutely I think you may have been using the free one but I have been right okay well you pay the extra money and you get a lot more a great deal more right okay thank you for that that's makes it worth it I |
| 34:44 | can afford 30 quid okay um so what is climate Catalyst it's an improvement on IR AOL possibly 10 times more photosensitive so if you want to get the same effect less 10 times less material it's a polycondensate of these substances uh hydroxides if you like of tonium and silicon they're not alkaline or acid really but they they make this uh well um sort of solid is type substance France describes it as sort of fluff microscopic little bits of fluff um but they are very hygroscopic they attract water water vapor and um they |
| 35:27 | they would also have chloride nitrate coat um optionally we'd love them to have iron3 chloride as well solution in that coat over as long as they're far away from Ice Sheets it's non-toxic degenerates to Clay why do you say it generates to Clay the clay minerals are a very different thing to any of the substances you've just talked about uh clay silicate and titanium and aluminium so it's aluminium chloride you want they sheets of sheets of these things for sandwich together so it seems a little |
| 36:04 | unlikely a clay mineral it lasts month come to Clay from a jealous condition to a Gela she clay yeah minerals just be interested if there's a reference you got their friends or something just to see that from from from clay study and Clay weathering and mineral weathering I'm very I'm very familiar with Clay minerals from a geological side I'm just uh interested how it forms from this particular process yeah we we I can um send you some stuff on that um how it poly condat cond condensates it polymerizes further |
| 36:52 | basically with aluminium chloride that's what you've said France haven't you so we could sort of take it from there yep yeah so um uh yep um right okay um the amount of acid for the ocean is essentially negligible we've said no no acidification if there's iron um then fighter Plankton would very diffusely uh be fertilized uh but plon growth raises the pH anyway at the surface um so I really don't think that's a problem um could be dispersed from ships drones landbased facilities fertilization does depend |
| 37:40 | Clive on having a bit of a deficit on iron in the waters where you're talking about because you necessarily fertilize everywhere yes um yep we' learned that from you um before um Chris that's been very helpful so the but it's it's all sort of pitting together as far as I can tell so because the Tropic tropics and subtropics there isn't much there's so little iron these are you know this is where the iron iron is the limiting nutrient as I understand it so so yes these are the places so but |
| 38:16 | that's right so in the uh temperate zones where there plenty of fter plankton a tiny little bit of iron will make virtually no difference that's right essentially no difference um um harmful effects yes not near polar regions U because it would fertilize algae and bofilm growth uh and we don't want to make it situation worse by putting clouds there that warm the ice trap more heat uh likely to alter weather patterns so it's going to need uh lots of cooperation from governments uh some kind of regime with |
| 38:58 | meteorologists as we've just been saying uh advising to make sure changes are beneficial and funding needed and so forth a little confused about that last point there um the iron limited regions are commonly Southern Ocean and the subpolar regions so are you talking about iron Sal Aeros so yes the Southern Ocean uh is also iron has a big Iron deficit as well yeah but but I think isn't that you're obviously Chris Vivian's aware of that iron is in is generally at very low levels in the ocean anyway the |
| 39:38 | difference is that the areas that Brian's referring to have an excess of other nutrients so when you add iron then the phop plon can bloom so you need not just the iron you've got to put it into areas where the other nutrients are there and available to be utilized for a phop plon yeah if the iron can be the missing component as it were yeah or add the other components as well well yeah that's the other possibility but practically in terms of large scale because of the quantities involved um adding a load of nitrogen and phosphorus |
| 40:07 | means you're talking of gigatons of stuff yeah mega mega quantities which is pretty impractical yeah yeah on a global scale yeah but we're aware of that so it's the hnlc the high nitrate low chlorophyll areas yeah nutrient low chlorophyll but maybe your main point uh Clive was uh that this is a time and a place for in increasing clouds which might be in the springtime or somewhere uh in the higher latitudes um am I suggesting more clouds in the higher latitudes so in other words well I I was trying to understand if the main |
| 40:48 | point was relating relating to clouds or relating to iron in the ocean uh so it's really mainly relating to clouds um and fighter Plankton produce dimethyl sulfide right and I think there's an interesting point that seasonally uh improving clouds at high latitudes in the spring and summer could um of course reflect much more sunlight during those times yeah yeah absolutely yeah I just want to do it for 60 days okay for my ice Arctic Ice just 6 to either side of the cfce yeah and so a balance right what was that |
| 41:39 | Brian uh in your second to last page you said you know avoid High latitude iron aerosols yeah spring and summer um yeah polar regions I guess it's maybe we're talking subpolar maybe that's the distinction but I think what we should say there there could be a time in place for for iron solid aerosols in subpolar regions that would contribute to cloud cover and perhaps attribute to some extent it would enable U the algae to U be more productive than it would be otherwise um and that could you know |
| 42:14 | that should be examined at small and medium scale to see if it would help to draw down carbon lurn yeah okay yeah I mean another thing that crosses my mind we when we look at the Keeling curve it's it's a wiggle every every year so we all know that um there's a breathing in and breathing out annually of of the biosphere um how much of that is outcropping from the ocean I don't know but I do read that quite a lot comes out in the Southern Ocean particularly the Drake Passage um sort of Forkland |
| 42:47 | islands area south of um South America and I do wonder if if a place like that with very again diffuse widespread iron fertilization make a little bit of a difference little bit of little bit more instead of no virtually no fighter Plank and then a little bit um my get the biosphere to hold its breath a bit you know keep that um carbon dioxide in Anders we should ask what is the role of the Southern Ocean in actually drawing down carbon seasonally in the spring and summer during the large Plankton Bloom you know could that be having a |
| 43:26 | significant effect on the Keeling curve seasonally in each of the subpolar regions yeah uh I do wonder that myself I don't know does anyone know but a lot of The Wiggles in the keing cural because there's more vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere and that's growing in the summer you know in April May June right so so that that would account for a lot of it it may be uh there was other things too but that's a very strong thing for regles in The Killing okay thank you yeah and then the Marine |
| 43:57 | analogy in the Southern Ocean is how much micro Aly we're growing in the Southern Ocean yeah and be interesting to compare those too yeah yeah you You' think they tend to sort of balance each other out wouldn't you rather than accentuate the wiggle there would be less yes they yeah yeah I mean you've got a very different balance the southern hemisphere has got much less land in the northern hemisphere so you wouldn't expect them to be equally equal at all would you no no not not if not not given that the |
| 44:29 | southern hemisphere is mostly is is a huge amount of Southern Ocean either either the Southern subtropics and the Southern Ocean which are low low in iron low in fighter plants and growth so yes yeah not as much as the land and the Northern Hemisphere yeah um so funded funding needed uh Steven has very kindly offered us to um uh use your spray tunnel um Stephen no uh I've got two ideas for how you can get your fine material up uh which I can bounce off you I've been thinking about how to how to distribute |
| 45:12 | it great okay thank you yeah so we should talk about that we should are we meeting on Fridays every week now maybe John we can talk about that tomorrow and sort out how we're going to stay in touch with Stephen I didn't know about Fridays I thought it was Thursdays well was it Thursdays okay don't let me confuse the issue but let's discuss that John M I'm John McDonald I'm talking to oh yes yeah yeah it wasn't it wasn't necess regular thing okay okay all right and then um okay so we we find this uh so these were |
| 45:52 | supplemental slides I didn't use them in that we I stopped so they could ask questions I think I've shown this one before from NASA um so if people doubt I think we we're not doubting that so so there we go that's that sliders can you got the sliders of that last slide can I yes drag drag them uh this is static but um if you want to see that I can I can bring that up pretty quickly I reckon um because I these links uh let's just hide this and go there Maps much Cloud fraction and um there's the slider so |
| 46:41 | you'll see it going through like that what's use can you stick that link in the chat please CL yep uh yeah uh John N John listen you've had your hand up for a while I think are you're muted John you're still muted John did yeah yeah yeah it just disappeared for a moment yeah yeah um so I I've had it up for some time because um various points have come up which I wanted to mention um Steven Suter said |
| 47:50 | referred me to a paper that said the cloud fraction was 18% 18 eight Z 18 eight 18% that's that's that's low not High Cloud that's that's that's from Charleston and Lovelock and it's low but not High Cloud so that's is that all suitable for cloud brightening then well it you can you can do Cloud brightening when there's some High Cloud as well as low Cloud but it won't be as effective but it'll still be there the the low but not High Cloud will give you the very best |
| 48:29 | result and it's 18% yeah so so uh where where we've got 72% most of that is high must be high Cloud then it must be including both yes um it's just that you know 18 from 72 I can't do it I should be able to well well what 54% is a great deal uh more than 18% so what you're doing is you're taking whole year numbers and it varies quite a lot through the year and if you got a mobile equipment you can go to where the good clouds are so you can have the best clouds for all the time or nearly all |
| 49:17 | the time by moving we you everybody's doing annual yours um and you should be doing it almost day by day yeah okay so two other points um if I can remember what uh one was about the um uh forcing they don't the ipcc doesn't include feedback forcing and the feedback forcing in the Arctic is huge and uh B wens and I reckon it could be about one wat per square meter uh which if you compare that with CO2 CO2 is two watts per per square meter you add one but of course that's focused in the Arctic it doesn't |
| 50:14 | manifest that itself in global warming it manifests itself in very rapid Arctic warming um uh um the other thing was I just remembered Hansen has pointed out and Brian confirms it uh that the we've we've reached CO2 doubling see by if you say [Music] co2e so it's we're we're up to 560 if you add in all the effects of methane and the other things yeah so we're in for at least three degrees then or four I think now they're saying yeah they do say though that that is is something that'll come |
| 51:06 | back down a bit once the El Nino's gone past it won't this is a necessarily a bit of a blip but all still on an uput Trend yeah H Hansen reckons with with rapid uh decarbonization we could be four degrees by the end of the century he doesn't he does uh he doesn't make much of the fact that actually the implication is we have to do some cooling intervention but that's uh that's implicit yeah maybe not in that paper I wouldn't want to put it in that paper but I think he he'll be saying that in |
| 51:47 | other ways won't he in other places well one would hope so he's he's all for being uh he doesn't like scientists being so but he is pretty rent himself when it comes to talking about climate intervention okay okay um okay anything else John should we move on oh those were the three three okay thank thank you for that thank you okay right I think we should move on uh what else rea's got a hand up oh okay Rebecca Y I would just like to make an absolute hel the comment which is that I hope that if |
| 52:28 | you decide to try and get a published paper from all the work that you've done the extensive paper uh we need to also be in my opinion like this is about funding um doing a similar process to what we are supporting Steven with getting a scoping study up and running to actually do it not just write a paper about it and why do it I mean field tests um Logistics planning all the things that absolutely we've been thinking about this for so long but there's no money yeah well there is money money grows on |
| 53:03 | trees and we're already supporting St so yeah we've been ineffective we've been ineffective up to now and we haven't no we haven't you you've done a lot of great work let's not criticize our I well I just mean we okay we haven't raised money up to now um we've but we've been looking all all around and that we have other ideas as well so we have too many ideas really thank you thank you very much Rebecca for that I'll keep that in mind and I'll take you up on that thank you um right um so um |
| 53:37 | yes so let's uh I think we've done so one of the other ideas i' just briefly so I think we've said this actually is uh foam glass that has uh slow release nutrients activated carbon to produce nitrates CU gets microbes growing in it bit of phosphate in it um floating just floating in an enclosure we think we put put them so there's lots of them all there bobbing about in the middle of the ocean all among the plastic all that all the waste plastic in the Great Pacific um G there and um because corals make more DMs I |
| 54:18 | read in that paper I just flashed up near half an hour ago anyway so let's move on um okay so well just on that because we we can induce a lot more up willing from nutrient upw wellers ship like a ship drawn upw wellers which which induce more of GMS from from fter Plankton that too yeah so that's another one of our ideas thank you John it's interesting I've been looking into DMS also there's a fellow here in Australia Al gabri from Griffith University and he's he's really a cross dimethyl |
| 54:57 | sulfide he's done a lot of work in PH Plank and biomass and the Southern Ocean the Barrier Reef Etc Al gabri Al gabri Professor Al gabri from Griffith University which university Griffith University Queensland Griffith Griffith University yeah I was in touch with a few years ago um talking about iron from dust storms in the tasmin sea flying off our continent here so he's he's expert in this area we'll try and get him in on one of the on one of these calls possible he's he's very good in this |
| 55:31 | area excellent yes please the dimethyl software it's very under underappreciated I think it's um I mean obviously that the cloud formation is fantastic um but there's also a bit of reflection of it as well I mean I found a paper that says it you know reflects 6. |
| 55:51 | 5% of the incoming uh solar radiation I mean I overall it's only about 2.22 watts per square square meter that's average out over the whole of the oceans that's enous Bo if if you could boost particular blooms you know and really get that 6.5% that would that would be quite effective yeah 6.5% um it's not the same as two watts per square meter no no but it all it all adds up you know oh yeah and the cloud formation as well so there there's a number of benefits of it it's got to be healthy phop Plank and blooms and you don't get the DMS from from toxic blooms |
| 56:30 | obviously so yeah it's inter area and and also just another comment on your slide the snapshot from Google Earth a lot of clouds over China and uh I suspect that there weren't very many over Europe in that in that in that shot uh probably a blue sky day back over Europe there um so you know this is not not surprising is it I mean there's a lot of er a lot of particular in the air over China still and you know you know this is this is why there's a lot of cloud cover there obviously yeah China and Japan yeah yeah I mean opens |
| 57:08 | up when you get down the tropics yeah so it's always a lot of clouds over China and yet less over Europe these days more Blue Sky days yeah that's why there's so much warming going on at the moment we've got the fires I think they've yes yeah yeah absolutely okay yeah all right thanks John um okay so back to um back to uh yeah so it's Ron please yes thank you Clive I I just put a couple of things in the chat um that uh provide the references to both housea and uh and and some of the data that |
| 57:50 | Leon um Simons has uh has presented at his Mir talk and probably he would can provide Simons is uh relying mostly on actual empirical signals uh and uh housea relies on modeling um and in his modeling report He suggests if you read his report he says that the DMS uh is very high in the northern ocean in the shipping lanes in Northern Atlantic and Northern Pacific and uh therefore the uh the need for more uh the DMS or the or the sulfur dioxide because there's no reason particularly why DMS DMS comes from phop |
| 58:33 | Plankton not not really ships yeah yeah no it's from from he says I I believe it's the phytoplankton I mean we go back to the report here uh he's talking about the because the the oceans he claims is if I recall correctly that the uh those particular regions of the ocean more more phytoplankton and therefore uh they they release more air you know these particles uh and therefore there's more clouds and so that adding you know so that the reduction of the sulfur uh does not have as much impact in terms of uh |
| 59:10 | creating clouds in those in those particular areas and therefore you know the the regulation will not will not cause as much warming a little bit but not not uh in the in the ranges that for example Leon uh Simons is picking up or suggests it seems to be picking up in their early data that he's been collecting um I I wonder if he's um doing his calculation as about brightening the clouds if he's if he's not calculating the brightness of the cloud because you you additional sulfur dioxide makes more |
| 59:48 | droplets he does I believe he does include that in the in the modeling as well but it is a modeling based you know uh uh results so uh I I personally would lean more towards the empirical uh signals uh but uh you know I leave that to to other experts I did want to uh I had my hand up because I this wasn't really my major issue but it related to your your presentation so I thought it was you know would be of interest um the uh so anyway if if people are interested I mean I'll I'll I'll I'll stop here but |
| 1:00:21 | if people are interested uh we've been having uh some of us a major uh debate over uh Jim James Hansen's recent newsletter where he and this I you know I Robert Chris would probably uh the uh he claims that um if the if you had uh zero uh emissions uh you basically uh over time get get some Cooling and that seems to contradict uh some of the modeling that that were that is in our in the cooling paper for example the H pack cooling paper that uh actually ironically is also from house he reports on it housea that uh |
| 1:01:01 | you'd basically get a plateau and I think other other people have waited in and and also stated a plateau so you know I sent a post to to Hansen asking him if he could clarify you know why uh it this apparent inconsistency uh so it's it's more of a you know a a long-term issue but uh it it is it is because this this problem where are saying that if we get zero emissions then then we'll be good you know everything will gradually cool and we'll you know that basically what we need to do and other others of us saying |
| 1:01:35 | no no no that's not at all true you just get a plateau for at least 50 years and maybe longer uh that you know you that's one of the big reasons why I think you know cooling is absolutely essential both for the short-term and the long term uh so so anyway in that sense it is a major issue because it's one of these things that's so widely popularized that we just get to zero and you know then we'll then we'll start seeing Improvement and uh that yeah yeah yeah we're saying it's |
| 1:02:07 | just not true there won't be any Improvement there'll just be a plateau I thought um Jim Hansen was saying if um uh atmospheric concentrate Greenhouse concentrations could be kept the same then we're still in for a 10 degre C rise yeah right so he he's talking about two different things equilibrium if if if the if the if the ghg level stay con yeah yeah then then but they don't stay constant I mean they either they either you know if if if you stop emitting they start going down because the ocean uh |
| 1:02:40 | absor you know there's more Ocean takeup and the the modeling provides a plateau because the warming the accumulated warming in the oceans comes back to bite us it basically offsets the declining CO2 and other ghg uh once emissions have stopped so that you just basically get a plateau the one offsets the other and that's where the accumulated Heating in the ocean becomes so important because that that does not go away it comes back and you know leaves us in this situation of of continued warming even if we've stopped |
| 1:03:15 | uh emissions thing is it's pretty academic isn't it because do you expect emissions to stop next year it is it is yes I mean if if in one Mission stop but that is the goal that seems to be the IPC and all the but just it's just wishful thinking though it's just wishful thinking we I it's I'd bet quite a lot of money that um within 10 years time that emissions will still be pretty high it's it's wishful thinking in the near term for sure and and that's the problem right but I mean over the long term |
| 1:03:49 | hopefully we will get there but but then still you know so so even as goal presenting this as the Holy Grail it doesn't really work botom line we need and Hansen is sort of he seems to be a little bit for some reason you know of a different opinion about this he says you know we will get some cooling once we get to zero so it it sort of you know undermines in some ways at least politically his message that okay you know but anyway that's that's the other okay got got it Ron thank you um Chris you've got your hand up I think Brian |
| 1:04:22 | was first actually oh all right Brian then yeah yeah two issues first of all Hansen may not be fully reflecting the fact that uh we have far fewer clouds and a much dimmer Earth and if you get to zero you know at some point let's say we're at 500 parts per million uh it it's not really including the cloud effect which has a profound effect it's also not including uh methane introductions to the atmosphere from permafrost and the fact that we may have a lot less Glacier Ice and a lot less sea ice all of these are reflective fact |
| 1:04:54 | factors that are critical and the result that we have a dimmer and duller Earth than 20 years ago as observed by the big be solar Observatory is profound it approaches one watt per square meter what Observatory was that the Big Bear solar Observatory the big solar Observatory yeah in in California they've observed a um dimming of the planet over the last 20 years measured by the Earth glow reflecting the that's the Earth uh light reflecting off the Dark Side of the Moon they've done it for 20 years and they've seeing they're |
| 1:05:29 | seeing um between visible and infrared A R A reduced uh well let's say reduced reflectance on the order of one watt per square meter um so very profound this correlates with the the satellite data as well and the result is uh we're living on a dimmer and duller planet and re brightening is going to be essential to um getting us back to pre-industrial levels the second point I'd like to make just briefly is that um this this paper diminishing the effect of aerosols mid ocean I think has several mistaken |
| 1:06:04 | assumptions uh Stephen um Salter is correct that um there are places and times where we can not only increase the brightness of marine clouds but increasing their extent and that is at the at the boundaries you have almost saturated air that is probably limited by the lack of nucleating uh particles and um that's where these aerosols can do the most good and I don't believe that is present in this analysis oh there's plenty of dimethyl sulfide so we're not going to get any Improvement by adding aerosols I think that's just |
| 1:06:38 | patently incorrect because it presumes some homogeneity which does not exist and Steph's correct if by going to the right places in the ocean we can increase the brightness and increase the extent of the clouds and it's those averages um over a long time and large Spa regions that can actually have a profound effect on dissipating excess radiation coming in and the life and the lifetime of the clouds as well they last longer because they got smaller drops it's it's getting B drops that make you |
| 1:07:10 | make it rain keep them small Stronger Yeah so I think we need to um consolidate and coordinate our rebuttal and maybe consider putting something out on this yeah we and we want to be able to cherry pick what's going to be the best place in a few days time I agree completely great thank you very much we might always we might also have a dimmer planet in terms of human intelligence that could be me too yes formulate some responses and rebuttal and get these in as um at least responses if not actually uh an article |
| 1:07:48 | that we might co-author ourselves you know rebutting some of this uh fud that put gets put out out there and gets uh promulgated through the blogosphere and the social media sites you know incorrect information but being fear uncertainty and doubt yeah yeah um that is correct yeah so who will um kind of make that happen this uh you're saying a rebuttal um Brian I'm just I'm looking at you Rebecca Rebecca um is Rebecca there oh maybe she's disappeared we were thinking yeah someone someone um I'm just on mute |
| 1:08:30 | and the answer is I'm sorry C I cannot do it I'm at an exceedingly busy period busy right not you then okay we need Ur or someone like that I'm just joking I talked a while back about getting so so I I'll contact Brian and Brian maybe can contact other people whatever you know we do I I fully agree that we need some kind of group working on this bunker fuel thing and and rebutting you know and and maybe we can get Leon Leon Simons who's who's already doing a lot of work on this and by the |
| 1:08:59 | way as a co-author one of the Hansen co-authors uh so he's he's uh he he appears to be you know very very uh well-versed in in in in this kind of empirical uh analysis of the so so anyway yeah you know great thank you very much would be a Way Forward yeah thank you um well thanks for taking it on uh that's great okay uh next is um has have the oceans got Greener and so I think that might have been Brian originally you got three hands up CL oh sorry so sorry uh thank you Chris yeah you're next sorry okay uh just three |
| 1:09:41 | just a couple of quick points um about the heating of the uh North Atlantic in particular Michael man says that one of the factors is weaker winds A reduced the amount of dust from the Sahara which does reflect F some of the sun's energy out of the atmosphere so moderating temperatures that's one of the facts he thinks is and that's partly because of the trade winds have been unusually light this year so that's a factor it's not the only one but any means uh and just the other since point I was going |
| 1:10:09 | to mention is um there was a letter in the uh New Scientist from the week before last from the director of the Scott polar Research Institute in Cambridge who criticized or or said the whole concept of Net Zero is that um basically maintains the level of uh CO2 in the atmosphere which causes uh continue warming melting and sea level rise and he points out that um during the last interglacial uh when temperatures were probably somewhat similar sea level Rose about 15 MERS above current levels so we'd be heading for the same thing so |
| 1:10:44 | anyway he goes on to say we've got to take CO2 out he doesn't obviously address cooling but uh he he does recognize that Net Zero is something that is totally inadequate and on its own right very good who is that again Chris it's called Colin summery he's director of the Scott polar Research Institute at Cambridge University okay but but Chris there's it seems to be again the confusion between the equilibrium CO2 constant versus Net Zero where the CO2 actually does fall after Ned zero so I I |
| 1:11:19 | just bring that up because that's yeah yeah I know there there's a lot of disagreement about different people about what happens if you get to a point of keep the CO2 being static shall we say in concentration not it's not it's not a natural thing right it's just theoretical concept yeah but but I think there's a lot of there's a lot of factors which different models perhaps take into account and don't all do it consistently so you get different answers depending on the on your models |
| 1:11:49 | and again models are just models mustn't forget oh that helpful my question is how many times over do we want to be dead you know yeah how how about modeling a solution yeah things that look that they could work okay thank you Chris uh Robert Chris please I just wanted to pick up on Ron's point about um Hansen's paper this issue about the distinction that Ron just been making about the between equilibrium uh concentration or level level concentration and and and zero uh is one that he is aware of obviously in a |
| 1:12:26 | private uh series of private Communications with him um he bizar initially he did not uh said he wasn't familiar with the concept of zero emissions um commitment this whole Central piece about the fact that if you get to uh Net Zero then temperatures stop increasing after I sent him the the links to this both to the um McDonald paper and the ipcc um section that deals with it he came back and said yeah that's um of great that's that's only of academic interest uh and not much at that and and the point the central point |
| 1:13:07 | is here he does actually obliquely cover this in the paper in the warming pipeline paper and I just want to read one sentence to you which actually tells you all you need to know he says yet the only IPC scenarios do you want to put it Chris Robert so we can see it I can put it up if you like me to I can put it hold on a second and show screen and screen right can you see this yeah just coming there you go looks like it there this is a bit this is here so you can read it yeah please read it as well would phase down human-made |
| 1:13:55 | climate change amount to a miracle will occur and then he says scientific way scientific equations do not include a miracle term okay and and essentially this was this was his way in the warming in the pipel paper of dealing with that whole question now I have to say that I do not understand in his subsequent note um where he effectively comes out and endorses zero the zero emissions commitment Thing by saying that oh if we get to Net Zero then basically it all starts to fall away I do not understand on the the basis upon which he says that |
| 1:14:33 | because it seems to me to be inconsistent with what he says in this paper about the climate response time and uh that is something which I'm hoping at some point U he will clarify either in private correspondence with me or elsewhere it is a it is an issue but whether he clarifies it or not the central point of as far as he's concerned is that it's of no real interest because exactly as somebody has just commented here it ain't going to happen yeah so that's the end of it so I think that you know so this this this |
| 1:15:07 | argument about what happens if we get to Net Zero um is as he puts it of academic interest only and then not much and we and we need to we need to bear that in mind and not get too hung up about um the Practical policy ations of getting to Net Zero because it ain't going to happen yeah but Robert it's it's politically so critical that's the thing you know he's he's ignoring the politics here this is the IPC Mantra Mantra I mean know of all these politicians n zero Net Zero well I I don't think he's ignoring the he's not |
| 1:15:43 | ignoring the politics in fact quite the contr he's he's acknowledging the politics which is why in this paper he says that we need to do calling and he says that quite exp in the yeah okay okay okay that's true but but the as far as the the you know this idea that emissions reductions will will will get us maybe 50 years maybe 30 years way too way too far in the future but still will get us to the to the promised land uh you know that's that's that's the that's the political message that people are |
| 1:16:11 | getting so you know it really does need to be addressed in the in this in this in this correspondance I had with him he he said he said at one point that he's he said I won't bother to to hunt for the email now but it was something along the lines that I suppose I shouldn't complain about um you trying to uh uh recast my paper in into ordinary English because scientists have done a lousy job of communicating these issues to the public and and and we need to get better at it you know we need all the help we |
| 1:16:43 | can get and that really picks up the point that you're making he recognizes that this has got huge political significance but how you know he he he almost I mean he's you know he's a guy in his 80s now and he has been very much at the Forefront of activism as a scientist and in fact got quite a lot of stick for doing that and I can understand his frustration uh at the lack of responsiveness from the political Community but without going into any detail those of you that are familiar with English politics Will no doubt have |
| 1:17:15 | been totally and utterly shocked by the events of last week where in a in a in a by election here um a public health policy was re was was instrumental in the Tores holding on to a particular seat that they well on actually the Boris Johnson seat that was they were expected to lose and what this whole thing um the public health policy was blown up as a climate change issue which it certainly isn't and we had both the Rishi sunak and K stama responding that they will now have to revisit their green agenda in order not to you know not to |
| 1:17:58 | lose votes I mean it's it's mind blowing you know y thank you Robert yeah nothing to add thank you very much Net Zero by 2050 is 4354 40 parts per million at least which is a long way above where we are now with all the the rolling impacts which is what they're committed to 400 what was it parts per million 40 something like that 440 where are we now we're 420 now 420 now Yeah Yeah by 2050 I can't believe it' only be 4 440 would would be I'm being I'm being optimistic it it could be all the feedbacks let's |
| 1:18:49 | be honest about it yeah that's what that's what they're committing to so all of these things we get a lot warmer than them are going to cool down from there you know it's it's beyond where we are now it's mad yeah we could go on forever about the madness um yes yeah okay thank you um herb please we haven't heard from you yet yeah I mean just a few of you have heard me say this before and it it sort of follows along with what Brew just said but I mean my I think it's it's not necessarily A very wise |
| 1:19:17 | position for us to be debating I mean scientifically it's important to debate whether we're likely to get to Net Zero or not because it's an unanswerable question but it provides the Fig leaf for people to avoid seriously addressing Cooling and what I what I've been arguing more and more is again as Bruce said is that even if we assume we get there uh we've got 30 more years of relentlessly increasing temperatures ecosystem destruction sea level rise uh societal instability and then once we |
| 1:19:51 | get there we've got decades more of that that so because we're up at 4:15 I forgot to put it on can you put it on for the morning can you mute yourself please um John keep going her please yeah and I was just this morning I wrote to a couple of people for the first time on Twitter this morning I saw a climate scientist Ed Hawkins who some of you may know who's most famous for his stripes uh uh you know visual visuals basically make that case he he said well warming will stop but we'll still have you know |
| 1:20:24 | essentially uh you know a devastated world for decades afterwards so anyway that's that's the position I I sort of Tak in my arguments is in seeing their point and saying that's still completely um you know inadequate to avoid planetary dystopia yeah thank you uh um John did you want to say something um uh one one is that um uh Bob Watson uh who ex chairman of ipcc uh has said that uh two degrees is now inevitable uh we could be heading for more than two and a half degrees the century uh and that was created with |
| 1:21:20 | great surprise every body was thinking we could keep below one one and a half not you shows shows the kind of naivity and and the fact that you need somebody like him to to to tell it tell it as it is before anybody takes any notice um yeah and by the way and and the the other another point I was going to make was the inevitability of emissions continuing is cemented in in the form of a International Energy agency forecast of of emissions still being high but not quite as high by 2050 something like um instead of |
| 1:22:17 | 37 uh gigatons per year down to 32 T but yeah so that's that's that's the real realistic situation so you to get to Net Zero uh by 2050 is is going to be impossible unless unless you can do massive CDR yeah oh which they're not going to do that why why would you do that when it's much easier much less disruptive things to do like brightening clouds and by the way uh Nicholas stern of the stern report very much backed up what Bob Watson said in a interview on the radio and was reported on various media |
| 1:23:00 | uh oh Nicholas Stern yeah yeah yeah yes thank you yeah okay let's we we're still talking we've got five minutes left and we're still on first agenda item I haven't done such a well second it item um right so what else uh so what else would we like to discuss in the last uh eight minutes here um well did we get to the oceans getting greener I think we didn't get to that so let's get to that shall we um what was that from someone John I just was the hopping down to my reason for sudden increase so um |
| 1:23:43 | let's do the Green Let's Do The Greening thing um let's do that this time um yeah because we've discussed a bit of that already John I think okay so let's has the ocean got Greener and dryden's work on um ocean pollution because we're looking for Solutions this is about cooling um um so but please send emails and things around about that John we always want a h so this was was you was it you brew there was a recent report that came out that suggested the planet had got green there was a guardian article on it |
| 1:24:19 | uh earlier this week sorry I can find the link to it immedi but some of you may have seen that um the um when I was discussing it with the other group that was on Howard in particular um he came back and said that this uh Greening is additional alies but they are of a a particular type as opposed to what youd normally expect to find and that that particular algae was more resist resistant to the amount of ocean surface pollution which takes you on to his work and I put a link into that doc that report so what's been very different over the |
| 1:25:04 | last 20 years is the massive buildups of microplastics and a whole raft of nasty forever chemicals which accumulate on the ocean surface there's a lot floats and which is highly toxic to an awful lot of Plankton phytoplankton life with which is changing the mix dramatically but if you if you look into that paper and better for people just have a quick read through it um he's also talking on the impact that living things have on the ocean's ability to um control the amount of evaporation that's occurring and the |
| 1:25:41 | rate of evaporation and suggesting that particular toxicity of the ocean surface in the Mediterranean um results in uh much greater evaporation which leads to some of these extreme rain events so it's it's it's a whole additional Dynamic which I find particularly interesting um so I I commend you to uh take take that link read through it and then perhaps next time we can discuss it be a more useful discussion okay you've sent the link okay thank you okay um okay I was just looking for it myself uh where are we so |
| 1:26:24 | um anything uh so there was something else change in temperature affecting F Plank and population Dynamics do you want to add that to it Brian uh perhaps just a bit uh I think this is something that's critical to understand and just the fact that we are seeing the change in Ocean color um means that you know it's uh worth really understanding um how the assemblages are changing can we correlate that to a lowering availability of nitrate and phosphate and micronutrients and um you know how the the fact that we're seeing it over such |
| 1:27:00 | a broad ocean extent correlates well with the higher ocean temperatures and perhaps um lower availability of nutrients seasonally in temperate latitudes and uh much of the year in in lower latitudes right so you're already saying difference in nutrients rather than the effects of pollution I don't think pollution is it's temperature pollution right we we've got a global signal of one you know close to one degrees Celsius in the ocean and uh that has that does have a significant energetic effect on um the |
| 1:27:35 | the net um you know the net stratification and yeah France do you have anything to say because we discussed the deden paper uh sort of sort of about around about a year ago I think or a bit less than a year ago and you saying that that uh having lots of activated carbon basically soot particles floating on the ocean surface oh is not necessarily a bad thing because it absorbs uh lipophiles and makes nitrate did you want to say something about it friends you're you're muted FR you're muted maybe I can that's it |
| 1:28:18 | that's better yeah but uh there a and not uh much what what is coming down to the ocean and it brings a lot of uh contamination uh from the from the atmosphere down to the ocean all what is gathering there uh is brought uh to the ocean surface including this uh uh a black uh color and uh or any any suit particle which falls on the ocean surface and it it would stay for a while would also uh warm the ocean I think because it's black okay so okay so it might um kind of give with one hand and take away with |
| 1:29:17 | the other provide some nutrients from itself but then it satisfies the ocean so the proper nutrients that that would normally have been there but it brings also uh poison to the ocean yeah for instance uh Mercury which is uh gathered on the car yeah yeah yeah thank you France yeah so so many changes happening it's hard to keep up with it all isn't it it's impossible for one one person to keep up with it all we're just about at time uh I can't believe how fast that went by any other final comments from |
| 1:30:03 | anybody according to the phop planton there is a paper from Deng eoch chemical mechanisms govern F planton which describes the emission from Futo plun on DMS emission great thank you yeah I think I sent you that one didn't I yeah yeah dang okay uh maybe I can is anyone interested in in that DMS emmissions from fire actually I found them quite easy to find actually looking in Google Scholar um but if anyone wants to see papers on DMS let me know and I can send you this I can send you if you if you don't have it okay all right thank you |
| 1:30:51 | France anything else from anyone one one of the questions I had is whether whether the warming that's occurring in the on the ocean surface the Arctic and Antarctic you know sea ice anomalies and that kind of thing could it could it all amount to a a cleaning up of the atmosphere removal of SO2 has there been a dramatic increase in the amount of SO2 being emitted by ships and so on just over the last couple of years yes has been a big increase but I'm not sure it's still a significant part of the global Fleet |
| 1:31:37 | yet a big increase it's a decrease in the SO2 yeah but but an increase in the in this removal of sulfur from ship stack emissions Maybe go ahead Chris sorry Prince the debate between housea and and Simons is exactly on that point that that Brian was was talking about and so forth yeah when the overturning uh process from where the GF stream goes down when it uh uh acts uh not as good as uh in further times then the warm water would stay at the surface especially when it is mixed with with a fresh water from the Greenland |
| 1:32:33 | mouth and that could be help to warm the Arctic too yeah so you have uh increasingly stratified warm or water on the surface so it stays on the surface so it stays warm instead of mixing so that's sort like a sort of secondary effect effect and process is slow the overturning process is slower and then you have this is what not sure if I've mentioned this before it seems strikes me that if you have warmer sea waterer arriving in the Arctic then you're going to have a lot more humidity so you're going to have |
| 1:33:10 | thicker clouds and thick so more heat getting trapped by clouds density density uh uh increases uh decreases but then the water at the top yeah decreases so it stays on the top water comes the warm salty water which is which when it cools go down it cannot go down uh if it is uh uh uh mixed with fresh water yeah so it's weakening the overturning circulation culation in fact that's C that's one of the predictions of reducing the Arctic Ice is they'll have a lot more fog and Mist in the Arctic which isn't necessarily going to be |
| 1:33:48 | quite so good for shipping if you have masses of fog up there right no no so that's all working in the wrong direction so if we could cool the the oceans and stop the warm water going into the poles then they'll be less mist and it'll be better for ships yes radar nowadays they all got radar they've got radar okay yeah um that's the end of our time folks I if anybody sometimes people like to have a bit of a chat afterwards um then I'll stay around for a little bit um but otherwise thank you very much everybody |
| 1:34:20 | and see you in a couple of weeks thanks thank you very much everybody thank you thank you thanks sure have a good couple of weeks and we'll be in touch on email no doubt hi oila did you you're muted urula you're muted I can't hear you you're muted don't hear you okay sorry about that yeah sorry I was late I was teaching my last evening you did say yes yes oh um you know I have a question and I know this is really like please go for it below entry level don't worry go for it but um can I just ask |
| 1:35:13 | look if everyone's backing well not everyone I mean the the the you know the powers that be are backing the the the zero emissions goal net zero emissions and if the whole of the scientific Community I how much of the scientific Community actually is you know is saying well it's not what you know it is it's not going to work um so how much pressure is being put on you know how much why therefore aren't uh governments they must know know this because the scientists must be telling them this that that's not going |
| 1:35:55 | to be enough um so question so why why why isn't there more research going into the other Solutions like the cloud brightening and so on I mean what's what they got against Cloud brightening it's politicians just do whatever's uh well they they they sort of at least they're supposed to listen to you know senior trusted scientists you know prominent scientists but um but there are lots of kind of pressure groups who will say no no no no no you you mustn't cool the planet um with clouds because that just allows the |
| 1:36:39 | fossil fuel industry that gives them a free license to continue digging up more fossil fuels and so um and so you know people like us who say look if it's it's it's either re brighten the planet or or forget it forget the whole thing because it'll be over within 10 or 20 years it'll be horrible um and um but the politicians you know they they go by whatever most people think because they just want to win the next election yeah and if so so I I've been saying well it's just a state of of um it's just Superstition |
| 1:37:17 | just like medieval times people think it's this way but it's that way and and lots of taboos and and lots of very high emotions and people you know gluing themselves to the street and things like that there's a saying that the emotional level is inversely proportional to the amount of information that's available okay right I think uh there's an opportunity and a challenge I mean I there's a simple way forward and that is uh you know emission Net Zero of course necessary but not sufficient the |
| 1:37:48 | greenhouse gas removals won't be fast enough we've got to re brighten the planet while we're getting back to a healthy climate that's the only way this is going to work and that way we can keep our friends who are in the emissions only sector but say it's necessary but it's not enough I mean it's fine for them to ask for it we need all the above and you know if ultimately the the fossil fuel companies are going to be on the planet with us can they be enlisted to be part of the solution |
| 1:38:13 | instead of part of the problem they have probably the largest carbon processing facilities on the planet they could equally be in trained in fact half their infr structure could be ENT trained to uh you know use carbon negative and and climate positive uh outcomes uh and uh perhaps we need to find a way to enlist their assets and resources and revenues and how much support is there behind the other Sol Solutions specifically the the the one that you seem to believe is the mo that you all agree is the most or are |
| 1:38:46 | debating about but seem to support the idea Cloud brightening being the most effective um way of doing it because it's faster and effective how much support is there in the scientific Community for that for for you for this um for cloud brightening yeah I see that James Hanson said it beautifully in the quote that was there today and that is we're not going to get out of this you know alive as a civilization without using Cloud brightening or aerosols so I think James Hansen has forecast the future and we need to |
| 1:39:21 | amplify by that message and how much and how much yeah sorry I just wanted to say that the microcosm this group here is among the most educated and I've been in it now for about two years or three probably since I first heard Robert tulip speaking in canra and the fact that we ourselves can't even agree on the actual questions like um I am opposed to stratospheric aerosol injection I am opposed to sulfur um not because I think they won't work but because people are frightened and it makes us all paralyzed |
| 1:39:58 | when I say us it makes scientists and the general climate activist Community paralyzed because they can't um we can't get anything going and so that's why I'm putting I'm working with Brian herb John McDonald cly all the people here we are going hell for leather just to use an expression on MCB and I think that climate catalyst is very comp complimentary so that's why I'm putting in like 15 hours a week or 20 on actually pushing MCB over the line be not because I don't think that the selfa |
| 1:40:33 | thing will work but it actually annoys the holy crap out of me to use a word when people are talking about bunker fuel because it's got sulfur and it's going to make everybody frightened and delay action more so anyway um I'm just saying that when we get calm about things we tend to agree this little group does and but then when you start getting out into the public published scientific Community all the same fears are there and people say what this what that you know all the stuff you heard this morning is going on ad nauseum in |
| 1:41:04 | scientific journals if you were on the list you'd be getting like 50 scientific papers a week from this group and that's only the tip of the iceberg so what this little group is really trying to do is spearhead things and make it really simple like MCB is a good idea how will it work climate catalyst is a good idea it's similar to MCB it can piggy back um and then what I'm saying to John missen for example is let's wait a little while and get these other things up and running like even that will take three |
| 1:41:36 | to five years to get going and in the meanwhile if we paralyze everyone there are some indigenous communities and there are people in the US as well Chemtrails in fact the Chemtrails people don't like anything up in the atmosphere but if you get on to we hate mucking with nature and stuff like that then that's a veto on everything so that's why Brian in particular is leading our group heres as well and Clive on nature-based solutions that are mimicking nature and that then removes everyone's sorry it calms people's |
| 1:42:11 | nerves down it means that we can get on with something so I'm trying to explain when you hear like today was actually a really cordial meeting and I didn't say anything to Ron about will you please pursue um bunker fuels as a priority at the moment it's fine to do the background research but if we start putting that up there at the same anyway that's that's my thing there is a there is a theory I mean apart from the less bunker fuels there is a theory of the spike and heating is also caused by the |
| 1:42:40 | the big Tonga volcano it it put a massive massive amount of water vapor into into the atmosphere which is unusual for a volcano uh the sea water got into it got up there and so there is a theory that that's that explains a lot of the recent warming as well so it's not just about the sulfur yeah the sulfur what matters about the sulfur uh Rebecca it's it's is where it's going if it goes into the stratosphere then we're mimicking intense volcanic activ you know continual intense volcanic activity |
| 1:43:15 | which you know the times when that that's few and far between and hasn't been the last many millions millions of years I mean to go about 50 million years until you had you know thousands and thousands of years of nothing but volcanoes um so um but that's that's the rational use speaking about rational scientific vents what I'm saying is indigenous people that I know and that are I forgot the name Eco or something rather like that you mentioned the word sulf and they don't get they don't hear |
| 1:43:47 | nuances they just hear I hate it it's from the devil and all that sort of stuff know well a bit tricky because because phyto Plankton emits dimethy sulfide you know which which oxidizes to sulfur dioxide and then sulfuric acid so that's all sulfur and that's in the air already quite naturally that's right so you have to be you know matter matter what can we do you know if if people are not going to learn the science not going to learn anything at all about science you know that limits the options that |
| 1:44:21 | that's that can be done really it's it's a sequencing thing Clive and if we just get up and running with MCB and maybe climate Catalyst the other things can follow and all I'm doing right I've got quite good science and a lot of scientists in my family so I do understand it but I'm saying lovely people like Ursula and and I'm you know all my move Beyond coal friends in Sydney they they know the science a little bit maybe or maybe they don't but they want a message from us about what |
| 1:44:49 | to do we have to be in control of the message and the actions if we keep saying a bit of this and a bit of that and something might work we're going to get nowhere for 10 years and we will all be burning in Hell by then if you know what I mean yeah yeah well I invite uh journalists occasionally we speak to journalists but they don't know who to trust or who to believe you know I'd like them to just come to the meeting and listen you know the lady from the writers says oh yes I'm traveling at the |
| 1:45:16 | moment but as soon as I'm back off holiday I'll come to one of your meetings um so how do you fancy becoming a journalist Ursula my dad was a journalist there you go he's not alive anymore unfortunately yeah Ur go I just wanted to respond Ursula I think you you know you asked the question about politicians but even when politicians are um acting in good faith they listen to the scientists and the scientific Community has been almost entirely against everything we're talking about with of exceptions a |
| 1:45:52 | couple of whom are here people like Brian and Peter wadams and others in our groups I mean you look at the nonuse uh there was a non-use solar geoengineering non-use agreement petition uh a year or so ago that was signed by hundreds of scientists saying we shouldn't use solar geoengineering I mean to to people like myself and I suspect all of us their argument was so shoddy and and um uh and weak but nonetheless that's the con ensus right now and and so you know I mean we we have a an inherently frightening or or at least potentially |
| 1:46:28 | frightening set of suggestions or or ideas to recommend to begin with and then how do you break through to put it in the mainstream and if you try to then people will say well where you know where's all the peer-reviewed research and from what I understand and others here elsewhere may know better but I mean there there's such social um uh disapproval uh of even doing research so if you're a young researcher in the climate field and you want to and you're intrigued with solar geoengineering and then you talk to your |
| 1:47:01 | you know your colleagues or your your senior faculty or your advisor and they say oh that's the kiss of death you know go into emission reductions go into measuring something else I mean I don't I don't know how how how true that is I would like to think it's not true but from the little I've been in contact with folks I think that's not insignificant and those are the sort of very real life pressures and the whole one more thing one of the major arguments that the non uh use agreement |
| 1:47:32 | folks made was that if we and if we don't stop this now then once money goes in for research it will be normalized and fact you know young you know Junior Scholars will want to do go into this field or at least they won't be inhibited against going into it we've got to stop right now now because it's too dangerous and that's I mean that's the reality right now well implied in that is well if we don't have any solutions available to cool the planet then the fossil IND fuel industry will |
| 1:48:04 | have to stop but they won't stop they're just not going to stop I I've read that um so uh is it Guyana they developing the roil fields or Brazil and China's belt and Road initiative is now moving from Russia to Saudi and Iraq to make sure they can get oil from there that that's so do you know what we have that massively in Australia as well we have fracking we have off sea um exploration and sounding and and Wrecking the environment left right and center and it is because of I think what herb said or somebody here |
| 1:48:40 | before that we don't there is no alternative economic system yet to provide the energy plus it's the vested interests I think it was you who said it or maybe Brian that if we can get another economy going then all of the the money that's going there and the jobs and everybody's vested interest can swap from one thing to the other but at the moment it is absolutely shocking down here you know and it's all around the world and but I mean China they need to heat their homes they need industry |
| 1:49:07 | and here we want to make a buck or two and sell our stuff to China and you know so until there's an actual other alternative up and running this this terrible thing is still happening you know anyway yeah yeah so o I think your your question was absolutely is the word opposite is the right thing it's like the child that says oh the the emperor is wearing no clothes you know you you need someone someone like you to to say you know to ask a simple question like that um and um and uh but okay another another problem this the so solar |
| 1:49:44 | radiation management is the great good thing is that in recent even months there's been more certainly this year there's been more talk about Marine Cloud brightening so I make a big distinction between the stratosphere which is the upper you part of the atmosphere um which got the ozone L and the trop which is the main yeah the atmos part of the atmosphere we all live in they're very different and so managing reflecting the Sun away in the stratosphere this is what every lots of people don't like because uh it |
| 1:50:21 | it's mimicking intense volcanic activity it'll destroy the it weaken the ozone layer further um whereas making clouds brighter with what's wrong with clouds what's so dangerous about clouds you know clouds which are only a few hundred meters up in the air not not 20 kilometers just a few hundred meters in the air they they reflect more heat than they trap and they they form naturally from you know fighter plank you know missions from fighter plank um and so forth and sea salt and lots of things and pollen and everything over |
| 1:50:55 | over the Earth over the land so but everybody thought that so as soon as you said solar radiation management there was a lot of confusion because yeah it should include making clouds brighter but people immediately went because I hadn't heard of that they' immediately go Oh no we can't have that because that's doing something in the stratosphere yeah uh so it's and people like oh well there's another thing it's all getting too complicated I'll go away you know just let somebody else deal |
| 1:51:24 | with it so this is it just the it's a can of worms I just call it can of worms other people call it a wicked problem it's just got so many kind of things that barbs in itar I would like to say everyone I am I am Irish by background I love to talk but I got a meeting in 10 minutes so let you and lovely to see you OA thanks for asking that very distilling question it was important for all of us so thank you well thank you for all your explanations as well thank you very much indeed we'll see you next time take care |
| 1:52:02 | yeah I look forward to that I very much look forward to that thank you everyone okay any other comments from anybody before we all say goodbye nice job CLI thank you uh thank you very much her all right everyone see you again soon thank you care you too by |