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| 00:00 | good and cl oh he's gone he's just beetled out of his chair yes the chair has been vacated yeah he we're we're getting some quite good uh responses from the uh of the new website idea o of comparing the very direct climate cooling um effects it's it's it's heartening to see how many folk uh want to come on board there he is by hello hello Seth we in Australia have been waiting for an hour oh oh sugar sorry about that damn it ah yes our clock you your clocks |
| 01:07 | changed before ours happened last time sorry about that yes I don't change for another couple of weeks that's right yes oh dear no no s hope you found something useful to do sir I did I I I I was looking up uh Steven Salter's uh duck concept and and his sink concept and uh is what concept was the second one the wave syn con concept a wave sync yes and um I'm I'm seeking to apply this to um not only cooling the waters a bit but also to to Growing seaweed if you can get upwelling uh bringing up some of the the |
| 01:54 | the deeper nutrients round round each each salt of sink you can probably put a a kelp Farm round it too y okay or or whatever grows in that temperature of water yeah exactly you're trying to do up Welling and down Welling at the same time is that what you're saying well that's what that's what the effect is if you downwell warm surface water and mix it down below you will get a certain amount of uping mixing or mixing of the war and the cold water the the nutrient depleted water and the nutrient sufficient |
| 02:35 | water well it'll depend rather a lot of think on how far you go because sometimes people these upwelling pipes can be or down Welling ones can be anything up to about a th meters so uh it might mix a lot and not ever come back to the surface from that sort of depth they they're talking about about 250 M okay 200 250 M yeah okay so there the water is likely to be um both cooler uh possibly less salty but more nutrient sufficient it'll probably be more salty i' have thought actually yeah the surface I would have thought in the in |
| 03:24 | the tropical areas you get a lot of evaporation with s water wouldn't you yeah but once you get below the it depends where you are I suppose but basically the sub the subsurface layers have increasing density as you go down and the density is largely due to the salt content although temperature plays A Part as well so the detail you need to pick where to do it then yeah I'm sure yeah but it's not it's a nice use of wave power to uh to uh to to use it to cool and uh increase cool the planet and increase biomass |
| 04:07 | there was though you come across it there was someone who was trying to do upwelling and down willing at the same time but in a slightly different context to yours he was an american guy who was actually a surgeon or something a medical guy Willam Calvin yeah William Calvin yeah that's him and uh his paper got somewhat he a load of students at the University postgrad students I think wrote a paper basically rubbishing his concept yeah I can't remember exactly the details but I've got it somewhere |
| 04:35 | but Brian Von Hudson's uh um idea of marine permaculture arrays and um the the um John mcdonnell's idea of of of H of of the the the the the S shape pipes and the seafields concept all deal with uping downward to a uh uh SE growth well most of them are upwelling I think rather than down Welling I think if you're doing up Welling you're doing down you can't help doing down Welling as well can you well it depends how you do it because if if you up with the water but make sure it mixes well so when it gets the surface |
| 05:15 | so it doesn't immediately start sinking again then clearly there's displacement physical displacement but that's at depth rather than at the surface I think yeah that's all I'm all I'm saying really yes yeah well it's time to begin hello everybody and welcome back to another Noak meeting hi Hi and hi Ursula it's wonderful we keep seeing you I wasn't sure if you'd have the stamina to keep coming back but you you seem to you seem to be full of you know enthusiasm it's |
| 05:47 | wonderful um great okay so let's be here yes well thank you presumably you can make some sort of sense of what we're saying well you're all very clear actually that's good well yeah okay it's important isn't it yeah I I try to make sure that uh if I don't understand it I ask people to explain a bit more that's the way it works here okay um what what would we like to talk about today I've got a few questions for Steph actually um so should I put perhaps I put this in just wanted well sort of um |
| 06:32 | have you had a chance we we gave you some um your some chemical formula to make uh aerosols Stephen um so I'll just very this is hardly worth not we can't talk about this very much I think what I did was to pass them on to a chemical engineer and uh he was a bit dubious about it but I couldn't understand why he is dubious so it's a bit a bit um in limbo at the moment but a bit of a roadblock yeah uh I will chase him again he he's actually hostile to putting anything into the atmosphere uh and I persuade him that |
| 07:13 | some things are quite useful Like Oxygen like what oxygen yes okay yeah yeah well we have um uh so he's I think he's not alone uh the idea of putting aerosol you know especially little solid particles um a lot of people not aware that there is all already a whole load of stuff already so it might be that I've got a a paper well a whole list big long list of frequently asked I made up frequently asked questions I mean some of them people have asked that's all about um well we we we call it we've been calling it |
| 07:55 | lowest dust lowest dust LS it's really it's sometimes well it's often called that but it's fine mineral dust and it seems that there was an awful lot more of it around up to 10 times more of this dust fine dust blowing about blowing around in the air during the glacial periods I don't know if we've talked about this before that's that would have had a strong cooling effect so I mean I could send you that that list of um frequently asked questions or we be happy to speak to him again you know to discuss discuss |
| 08:27 | his fears uh I've been thinking about the general problem and it's it's tempting to always use the solution that worked in your last project for the next one and I try and fight against that and at the moment I think the big difference between what you guys are trying to do and what I've been trying to do is the size of the vessel and I'm trying to make a very large number of rather small vessels which get all the material that they're using locally just from going through the sea I think that may be |
| 09:05 | wrong for what you're trying to do and I think we should be looking at much larger vessels maybe not not enormously large but but certainly not as small as myons 90 tons and you could be talking about a system where you have uh mother ships which are bringing large quantities of raw materials to distribute between uh number of mediumsized vessels the and this would be a big difference from what I'm trying to do where I'm trying to make everything be so light that he actually flying in the water the hydro hydrofoil vessel um it |
| 09:46 | would be a bit like the whaling ships but working in the other direction uh there was a mother ship that towed dead whales in and produced whal oil and there were a number of sort of Hunter things that would bring back one whale at a time so a bit bit like that um one mother ship and maybe 10 or 20 Distributing ships right and I am I right in saying I think that blue cooling those blue cooling people have got that sort of idea as well maybe that maybe because they've been talking to you I haven't been |
| 10:21 | talking to them but I can I can see the reason for it yeah I want I want to be able to pick my spots for doing the spraying uh by someone who's looking at uh the results of a whole lot of climate models and feeding them with information about the present climate system and then working out what would happen a few days later if you did spraying there and there but not there right that's very much the way I'm thinking as well at the moment as well yeah okay that's thank you for that so I think we better try and keep it to |
| 10:55 | the agenda um so the other thing uh that I I wanted to ask you and uh really anybody that has an opinion has something to say about it is is uh these water spouts uh We've not discussed that so far in these meetings and I wasn't even aware of them they're these sort of little tornadoes that um that come off the ocean uh so um and I'm just wondering how effective they might be I saw today that they only last they might last sort of 20 minutes you know they they sort of burn themselves out um I suppose they |
| 11:34 | transfer heat and then once the difference is gone they they don't have any energy anymore so that's the same idea as mich's atmospheric Vortex engines which I put on on our list of candidates okay right I think I vely saw his name well but we're not um we're not bothered about trying to get energy from them it's just cooling purposes yeah p pushing pushing warm moist air high up into the troposphere yeah um I don't know how high it would go it be a kilometer or two but if it make soon as it reaches |
| 12:13 | the saturation Point presuming it makes a big cloud it's and also releases the the energy of conservation up at that level yeah so it's easier to radiate off planet right bit like what forests do yeah it's a it's a transpiration effect yeah yeah so um so I'm just G to I'll put this in let's see if there's any more to say about it um isn't it just a tornado but over the sea yeah that's right it is yeah so so part of my question actually is um uh to cool the ocean is how easy |
| 12:55 | anybody thinks it might be spouts that's meant to be um to initiate them if you have a something like a jet engine and you can get if you can sort of get some twisting air going above you know a suitable place that's got warm ocean water if it's reasonably calm if that would get it going we would also thinking of putting our aerosol in that because it as it goes up talks about how you started what even a water spout over the ocean well he's talking about um uh spraying water on warm water on land uh into the inlets for the for the |
| 13:36 | atmospheric botic engine which to me is is pretty much the same as spraying warm surface water in into the the same unit floating unit yeah okay so he's talking about a fixed thing on land that um captures as well he's talking about using it for to get rid of the um heat heat left from power plants or metal refining operations yeah how it has to send that up into the sky so it doesn't warm the lower atmosphere yeah and and also he's talking about generating electricity from it we're not so |
| 14:15 | interested in that but we are interested in in pushing the heat upwards yeah yes okay great okay so that's um let's have that on the agenda if that's okay uh what else would we like to talk about welcome everyone that's just turned up I've come across that might be which I can mention one from the high level panel for the sustainable ocean economy one of them from the ETC Group which I'm sure will interest Brian it's all about seaweed right I missed the beginning of that you were a bit sort of uh distorted |
| 14:52 | but what was it I say there's two reports yeah one from a group called the high level panel for a sustainable ocean economy you need to spell it all out call it just high level panel do high level panel yeah and then the other group the other one is a and that's about um carbon dioxide removal type things in the ocean generally um the other one is about is from the ETC group oh yeah wellknown anti-g Engineers yeah all about seaweed okay the links in the chat okay thank you right gonna fail with this aren't |
| 15:39 | I yeah never mind okay um what else should we have we should discuss uh James Hansen's statement of July 2023 where he describes rolling the dice and how the dice are now highly loaded yeah um recent so it's a recent report then is it most is his most recent one there a more recent one than that I've seen okay maybe is it on a different topic this was July this one was August I'll find in a sec I'm just doing something else at for the other reports I was mentioning the dice are now heavily loaded |
| 16:22 | yeah maybe probably two topics it's worth listening or discussing both yeah it said Flying Blind or something at the end of the end of the title that I saw yeah he's saying that um there's a uh um satellite measure a measurement device that is that need needs to be there to measure the effect of is it aerosols also says we need cooling sorry he also says we need cooling yeah it's right saying that as well um Flying Blind let's put that up there yeah that'd be good to discuss that too y um gonna watch me struggle now aren't |
| 17:07 | you with this with this damn thing uh there we go what else would we like to talk about anything else Chris your second L is invalid if you could rest ITC group link doesn't work sorry what was that Brian the ETC group link does not work from chis it needs to be re group doesn't work okay okay and someone else was speaking as welled off right hang on a minute so that's I think is that Hugh hand I think I recognize Hugh's voice yeah yeah I was just wondering whether um observation I don't know whether a short |
| 17:52 | discussion on where the meane is is really now going as anyway maybe just two minutes on me right uh a lot of people seem to be distorted this evening I don't know what's going on you're loud and clear you're loud and clear it's just people's bad internet connections okay it's a very busy night for everybody watching films so methane uh two- minute discussion so okay let's just say discussion is it is it the high concentration you're thinking about here it's gone over 2,000 now hasn't it |
| 18:29 | yeah and also um from India and China Agriculture now that we've observations from satellite um the the C as it were being okay I missed the last thing you said Hugh about so now that we' now that we've got better observations okay the culprits as it were are identified and um so agricultural emissions p in China and India growing okay yeah okay and but he he Kelly quite a long I don't know whether anyone saw that um about how the conversation ining uh the the youth my is great I'm |
| 19:35 | in the middle of nowhere as you can probably see so if you can't hear what I'm that's just uh if you speak slowly we might get get what you're saying I think you were saying somebody released a report but okay let's we'll get to that yeah that seems a good one I'll put something in okay thank you thank you yes well we like talking about methane because we have solution for it but it does mean putting something in the air maybe that's about enough maybe that's about enough unless there's any |
| 20:13 | burning other suggestion okay uh if not let's uh so any any thought any further thoughts on water spouts to cool the ocean so people that just SE was saying is it m is it Charles misho um uh yeah atmospheric Vortex engine can you put that in the agenda yeah so atmospheric uh atmospheric Vortex engine engine m a UD that's another Mish show yes some have got X on the end and some have got D on the end oh right he's the one with d on the end right yeah okay you've got your hand up Chris yeah I've |
| 21:10 | read somewhere recently I forgot where it was now someone I thought it might have been ye in the no AC femes but I don't think so now I've checked um someone was talking about water spouts and creating basically a Vortex and one idea they had was using you know some of these um what they call sort of automated vessels there the floating ones that use sails and so on and I thought if you could get a couple of those together sort circling together you could potentially engender a um Vortex that would kick things off I can't remember |
| 21:42 | where I saw it though I can't remember at all but I just remember someone think saying that and said it was a possibility to generate a sort of a water smell potentially okay so we're not the first to think how it works but right that's done with sailing ships well basically the idea is you have sort of sails forming a bit of a wall and then because any air that comes into it will then have to flow round in a bit of a circle yeah I see the walls there and that would to K things off perhaps anyway's got his hand up yeah okay yeah |
| 22:17 | of course they they generally form in nature from um the opposing opposing Winds Don't They with the atmospheric Dynamics the shear Vortex you got to get a Shear yeah yeah you get a shear and that that that causes the rotation and there's usually a massive sort of cumulative Cloud over over the top which it's feeding I don't there seems to be um different views on how much salt water they draw up I mean some people say they draw up a lot and others say they don't drw much at all but I would imagine they do drop quite a bit |
| 22:49 | once they get spinning yeah I read something that said that they don't usually but sometimes they do and sometimes they'll pull pull it sometimes it's raining fish seaweed because they've pulled even even that out the out the sea yeah you often see them extend down from clouds but they don't actually make it to the Sea surface they are pretty rare in my experience having spent a lot of time on the water but um when they actually touch them then they get wider and whiter as they draw up water yeah yeah I |
| 23:20 | think they mainly happen in tropical places bre so unless you do a lot of sailing in tropical places get quite a few over the you see them around yeah yeah yeah they have been seen around the UK Coast I believe oh really okay is that is that more recent because water's getting warmer or no I don't think so I mean they might be more frequent because of that but not nothing sort of dramatic than I'm aware of perhaps you need a temperature gradient and and this thing about you know the opposing winds maybe that's the wind |
| 23:54 | thing that really makes it happen under cumulous CL as well you got a of that draft happening you get a sheare coming that right well that's quite I'm quite glad to hear that because uh it sounds as though it should be easy to get them going because if you got you if you designed something that's you know with P A powered thing like a somewhere pushing clouds to and through yeah well no no no I mean I mean to to generate a Shear to to you know have a jet engine to blow air up into a cloud and so or do you kind of see if it gets |
| 24:27 | it going you know with baffles to make the thing twist it's a possibility seems to me quite quite a um compelling idea think I'd steer Finance in other directions first well if it does a lot of cool want to ask the question of how do you turn them off if there's too much of them well they burn themselves out they vity yeah I'd like to how you burn them make them themselves burn themselves out when you choose the V stop it controllability is very attractive and I don't see how you can control them once they're going no I |
| 25:06 | don't see how you could control them well if you're using an a the actual a machine is stationary so you've got got a stationary water spout or a or or a tornado of fairly small Dimensions but uh once it if if it ever moved away from the machine it had die because it's lost its main yeah but if you look at the way tornadoes on land work they can do an incredible amount of damage in an incredibly short time as far as I can see there we ought to expect that Tor tornadoes that we've made over hot sea |
| 25:48 | are going to behave in the same way well I saw one video today where it um a water spout came onto landfall immediately stopped so um and if they last only 20 minutes and you start them in the middle of the ocean then I don't see how they can they very like they've got to last for hours and hours or days to get over to the land so it seems worth it to me if they could do powerful cooling if you don't need to put much in and you get a lot of cooling you have a fleet of things out there and going all day long in the |
| 26:23 | middle of the Pacific or something what you're doing is placing one giant Category 5 hurricane with maybe 100 water spouts but running continuously yeah exactly something like that that's right yeah so so set them off with existing oil and gas platforms using some excess flaring gas to get them spinning but if they go terribly wrong there might be a lot of people that not too unhappy about that if it knocks down the oil platform yeah yes okay well thanks everyone for that interesting scientific exercise so five |
| 27:06 | yeah yeah worth worth exploring yeah yeah I'm not sure I'd want to do it myself but there must be I'm just thinking if there's Intrepid Sailors that that like going out and trying things like that so how will we get permission to experiment how would you get permission I don't know would you need might be challenging it might be challenging anything is labeled climate repair or climate engineering or climate intervention gets gets the way to do it is um know the way that the aviation industry uh can do whatever they like |
| 27:45 | because they're working on in production so maybe somehow to experim that you know uh you know Boeing Boeing can probably do this kind of without without ever having to ask for permission yeah okay so so as a sort of product development you're saying something like that or some kind of sporty challenge I would think okay yeah not so speak slowly H it's very difficult to hear you please we' got it's not sorry it's it's so hard to hear you something about land and climate you you've got a a a fully one |
| 28:36 | of those little red um bar worry I think I'll just leave this in a couple of weeks just turn off your video maybe turn off your video you uh that might make more bandr for the speaking I can see a hangline organization wanting to wor I'll see you later by see you later you okay at least he tried yes SE you're saying yeah I can see a hang lighting organization wanting to have a sporting contest with with hang gliders going round and round a water [Laughter] spout see how many times I can go around without getting sucked into |
| 29:20 | it yes okay let's not get too silly so did you want to say something about about this Vortex engine um seev no it'll be it'll be put in into the into the website and people can can see it there and hopefully mish's done a lot lot of engineering calculations and we can see whether it it it holds water yeah yeah no pun intended yeah pun intended okay yeah okay um let's uh Chris please these reports then okay I'll just um I'll just share my screen a minute I'll just show you this front page of the report and |
| 30:00 | I've put the links into the um into the chat already so you'll be able to pick it up from there um where's I can't see how to share my screen at the minute is it there should be a green button at the bottom oh there you go yeah I'm looking at the wrong place right do um right let's go with that one this is first one is the one all about seaweed you see a picture of that now yep yep yep okay so this is quite a long report I've only glanced at it so far because it's about I don't know 35 pages |
| 30:41 | long or something but basically it's a sort of rant against all things seaweed even growing seaweed for agriculture to some extent gets a bit of a kicking far as I can tell but I thought it be worth mentioning and Brian I'm sure we'll be interested to see it all bit despairing perhaps all right um anyway um I'm not going to say anything more about it because I haven't read it properly and so but I just I've got a pretty fair idea thing etc's line is on these things so I won't be surprised by it I don't |
| 31:11 | think um I'll just stop sharing that one and then I'll just show you the other report is it that one right there we go this is the report by the high level panel for a sustainable ocean economy it's called the ocean as a solution to climate change and updated opportunities for action and it goes through all sorts of different things but there's a particular section about ocean carbon dioxide removal it talks about all sorts of other things including transport and all sorts um and it's quite an extensive report |
| 32:00 | it's 160 Pages again I've only just looked at it so I certainly haven't read it um but the this high level panel is has quite a bit of support from quite a number of governments I think there's about 30 30 or more governments who are partners for this project something like that so it's um and they've written a whole load of revolts and all sorts of other other aspects of the sustainable ocean economy but links for both those reports are in the chat great thank you very much yeah that looks very interesting |
| 32:32 | well they both look interesting I think the even the ETC report is is interesting to see because it's it's helpful to know because people are going to read it and they're going to cite those reasons not to grow seaweed so gives us a chance basically the the ETC report is particularly um comes from perspective of a group called Mother Earth um which has a lot of indigenous groups associated with it around the world but particularly in South America and home's idea of solving the climate solution is for all all of us to |
| 33:08 | go back to indigenous level agriculture globally interest that indigenous level agriculture includes seaweed mariculture which was noted by Captain James Cook when he first encountered the uh you know the indigenous people here in a Australia and at the very first pictures that they showed they showed those um those indigenous peoples diving for seaweed and using seaweed in Tasmania so um I find that to be rather unstudied um and I'd like to have a few minutes to make some initial comments regarding this uh this monologue that Etc group |
| 33:48 | has produced yeah basically they they are think that anything that any any sort of Western commercial type organizations do is going to impinge upon the indigenous local communities and mess their sort of environments up I suppose is what they're saying but I say I haven't read it but by all means read it and you can have a further discussion of it another time perhaps okay yeah actually um uh you know if you um have a I'd like to make some initial comments um if I may yeah yeah sure please yeah um there so they |
| 34:21 | talk about five supposed myths at the beginning of this and I've had all of five minutes to look at it but I can uh debunk several of their could you bring it up Brian so we can see it well I can put it on the screen if you yeah just look at yes please well well Brian is going through it as well so myth one is they claim that that seaweed is not a significant carbon sink but they're violating both um stochiometry and uh Professor Carlos DW's finding of over a gigaton over a pigram of carbon uh fixed |
| 34:56 | every year by over uh by the large area of seaweed forests around the world um so that's the first part the stochiometry itself uh the seaweeds that we're growing are between well I'll just say the Redfield ratio when you up well um nutrients uh you get um uh for every phosphorus atom that comes up there's 117 carbon atoms in the um when the seaweed is when it's fixed in seaweed the ratios are more like uh 500 to1 or 600 to1 which means that there's a net uh capturing of carbon when it's |
| 35:36 | used in seaweed because seaweed has a lot of cellulose and hemicellulose associated with the structure of the multicellular macroalgae itself and so there is a stochiometric advantage to actually um restoring natural upwelling and getting uh some fraction of it into seaweed uh and in fact there's been documented uh seaweed sequestration in sediments and at depth we've seen seaweed down at depths of two 2,000 Metter and they're ignoring it um you know they they say it's not significant that they're saying a tenth of a gigaton |
| 36:10 | is not significant which I take exception with because uh the Princeton uh paper of 2004 with Sako describes how um every gigaton represents a climate stabilization wedge and uh so you know I think um anyway that's that's myth number one uh they've got five myths I'll go through the others briefly there's number two yeah myth number two seaweed scale up is good for marine ecosystems well you know there's this little problem and that is primary production you know and um Etc group is conveniently ignoring the challenge that |
| 36:46 | we're facing a stratified ocean with decreased supply of nutrients because it's not being up weld the way it used to be and decreases of primary production in the tropics and subtropical oceans of 30 to 40% um depending on which paper you look at over the last 20 years so uh there's plenty of papers it's basically cherry-picking where they're kind of you know cherry-picking the references they want to find and and ignoring this fundamental Challenge and that is the um you know the the the uh perian mass |
| 37:17 | extinction was exactly the sort of problem that the the air warmed the water warmed the ocean stratified the primary production decrease due to the lack of supply of nutrients and oxygen levels dropped to the point where we were dealing with the hypoxic ocean um and thus um you know actually being able to restore primary production to and it's starting right now in the tropical and subtropical oceans we've seen the decrease in seaweed production in the Philippines of you know to the point where the seaweed |
| 37:49 | communities are collapsing and this is the livelihoods of a quarter million uh Coastal communities local indigenous Coastal communities and thus um that's an exception for number two uh moving on to and I haven't read all the little subsections there um but I will uh myth number three seaweed is fast biomass well I've got to tell them they're wrong again we are growing today the fastest growing autotrophic multicellular plant uh identified at Planet Earth and um you know it's uh it grows nearly as fast as micro algae um |
| 38:29 | and so as a result seaweed is very fast and it's able to um you know double in in a day in some cases so um they're just ignoring the facts I can point to Nature articles on this and it was just reviewing those in the past week well they're saying just looking at that paragraph that're they're accusing people of cherry picking and saying that just because kelp can grow two to three feet a day doesn't mean all seaweed grows at that that that speed yeah I mean they're different speeds and I agree there are some slower |
| 38:59 | and faster speeds but we get to choose the species and furthermore we're actually designing environmental conditions in which we can get high growth rates most of the year because we can supply nutrients at night at depth and sunlight dur and carbon dioxide in the top meter of the sea during the day so they've completely you know they haven't looked at all at this you know there's there's aund ways to try to shoot something down but um just a couple ways of making it work and of course we found that um this deep |
| 39:29 | cycling works very well and it's offshore you know they're kind of saying oh everything's Coastal uh that right here there's plenty of spare ocean well you know we've got it on good authority including I think sir David aturo and others I mean there there's literally 100 million square kilometers of mostly empty ocean that can be accessed now it's true that historically most seaweed has been Coastal but with Marine permaculture we're looking at all Waters greater than 100 meters deep and that's |
| 39:57 | most of um most Count's exclusive economic zone and it's most of the international ocean as well so uh there is plenty of spare ocean in fact our system as um of marine permaculture has proven to be um not only climate resilient and that is to hurricanes being able to sink lower but even with shipping and navigation um you know there it's very easy to detect a ship coming towards you we we're designing the automation systems that will enable the platforms to sync 25 meters below the depth of uh |
| 40:29 | ships and uh the ships can go right over and then come back it's like a sinking lily pad if you will so I think we have an answer to the spare ocean problem go ahead so you're saying that your Marine K permaculture platform is on the surface most of the time and when a ship's coming along it sinks to get out of the way of the ship yeah that's one of the multiple strategies that provide the plenty of of spare ocean uh and just look at look at Google Earth and look at how much ocean it's huge yeah 36 million |
| 41:02 | square kilometers yeah yeah finally they they their myth number five seaweed industrialization they claim isn't good for Coastal communities well I've got a quarter million seaweed farmers in the Philippines alone who say they're wrong and 2.8 million seaweed farmers in Indonesia who actually you know make a living off those Coastal communities and the problems of global warming uh you know have have made their lives much more difficult so I think there's more than three million people who would say |
| 41:31 | that uh they're wrong in just two countries alone I think what's most disturbing about this is ETC group never tried to reach out to groups like ourselves and actually get a balanced perspective um this is a monologue of sorts um it ignores the Rio Declaration of 1992 section 15 which said um you know uh do not let scientific uncertainty be a cause for an action and yet we've seen 30 years of prevaricating and sadly this peace which is in my opinion misguided and not balanced um you know sets back I mean it it it just |
| 42:08 | um impedes the uh the progress if you will um it it's uh I think not not serving um Society or civilization and actually you know it feels a little bit I've got to say briefly that um equally dangerous I mean we we're we're encouraging deliberative democracy and and the open debate and I think groups like the one we're in here is very good for that um what concerns me is both kind of a a religious right fundamentalism which tries to shut down uh deliberative democracy and secondly uh deliberative can you remind me what's |
| 42:43 | deliberative democracy Brian sounds interesting where you can you know have a critical discussion uh in a you know in a private or public context um that's you know in a forum that works well I you know we don't have the time or bandwidth to deal with all the lawyers at Etc group and go through all this public you know public argumentation you know we're not paid to go uh you know nitpick and take pot shots we're paid to actually regenerate life in the ocean where you know our goal is to actually |
| 43:14 | do something these other guys are sitting in Toronto or wherever they are and just um you know kind of taking potshots it's it's exactly what Rio section 15 was all about and that is don't sit on the sidelines and prevaricate you know go out there and try something and show that it works and uh you know there's a hundred ways of not doing something and two or three good ways of doing it and uh we're we're aiming for those two or three good ways but what concerns me equally with these |
| 43:41 | kind of pieces is that there's something on on the left that's coming through and that's this cancel culture and uh what I'm going to call uh social justice fundamentalism which is not a perfect phrase but it's one where they try to shut down the conversation and um you know so I think you know at some at some level we'll need to provide a a rebuttal to these claims it's time consuming it doesn't help us actually solve the problem directly but it becomes necessary when they put up these kind of uh you know um |
| 44:14 | the these obstacles so it's it's a little disheartening I think what disturbs me the most is that Etc group has made no attempt at sincere deliberative discussion uh zero attempt at all they put out the pieces that are highly biased and you know it's it's unfortunate that they're just setting back the uh the rate of uh you know actually moving towards sustainable civilization yeah when you say deliberative do you mean sort of objective something like objective it's more it's involving the public in wider |
| 44:46 | discussion engaging with people okay just yeah yeah I mean it has to be said I mean I've had quite a lot of experience of Etc over the years and uh frankly they never do U do anything like balance balance is not their way of life at all it's quite the opposite yeah but I mean perhaps you know there'll be people around the world who say no yes we don't we you know the evil industrial people you know they're sort of endless unfettered capitalism and there you know we've got to stop stop all of them and |
| 45:17 | so they get money basically from from people that think unfortunately unfortunately Clive the ETC have a platform at the CD where historically they've had quite a lot of influence they've managed to get a lot of um the global South countries to believe that the West is ganging up on them Global North is ganging up on them and everything that the north does is um not to their benefit at all yeah so they basically uh have a very uh anti capitalist anti- Global North type perspective really yeah yeah and you |
| 45:55 | know for every uh fear-based piece it's been demonstrated psychologically that it takes five times as much effort to just get back to to zero again in other words a fear-based message affects the amydala five times faster than uh you know hopeful view of the future and um that's your part of the brain that that your flight flight and uh and what is it hide the amydala of Reptilian Brain isn't it yeah right it becomes NE NE to exert five times as much effort to just nullify these naysaying um pieces and uh you know it's |
| 46:34 | if people take pot shots you know we just we're not paid to uh prevaricate and argue about these things we're we're uh it's all about designing something that's actually going to work so um anyway it's I appreciate you're bringing the uh the paper to me you know it's it's not it's unfortunate and it's going to require a lot of deliberative democracy to undo the damage that they've done Etc group are in fact using the lizard part of the brain to to stop things happening so they lizard |
| 47:05 | brains they are well point so thank you and thank you Chris for bringing this article up okay yeah and thank you Brian for that very very good analysis there uh okay uh okay but the high level ocean report looks very very interesting yeah I just wanted to oh sorry her I missed that sorry yeah you got that's okay I just wanted to read a very short and kind of puzzling part of the report it's just a couple paragraphs under a section that's called the new seaweed trade Lobby and then and big investors |
| 47:43 | big in b b being capitalized and I being capitalized and there's a subsection that says geoengineers and it says seen it says car quote carbon dioxide removal is seen as a key geoengineering pathway interesting perspective geoengineering Advocates uh boosting seaweed scaleup include and then they mentioned three entities uh the Cambridge Center CCR headed by Sir David King who who served as UK's Chief science advisor to PO former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and is affiliated with systemic and then geoengineer Victor smask I don't know if |
| 48:23 | I'm pronouncing his name smich uh who's the scientific adviser and founder of seafields and then third geoengineering investor Peter fikowski and his foundation for climate restoration so um a bizarre characterization with no no attempt at explaining why they even mention them there but yeah and and certainly I would second and third what everyone else has said the the reports the other reports I've seen from these folks are all are just so unbelievably one-sided that you just have to roll your eyes and then decide as Brian said |
| 48:59 | whether you're going to take the the ex the effort make all the effort at at debunking them or not or just you know move on but in the absence of debunking both those reports and very similar kinds of efforts like we talked I think a few weeks ago about the Council on human relations uh at the UN and their advisory committee report that that was probably just adopted this uh in September that basically equated geoengineering with uh uh you know with being uh incompatible with uh uh human rights so you know the it's all of a |
| 49:36 | sort of a piece um and it is very distressing that they don't even go through the pretense of objectivity just while we're on that the other report that we had a while ago was the um the article 6.4 Paris agreement which is the one about carbon removals you remember there was a report came out again was highly biased and influenced by the same sort of groups um but they've actually had to roll back quite a lot they had about5 representations came in from all over the place and they've backed off quite a |
| 50:08 | lot from that original position that they came up with so that's the UNF Triple C's article 6.4 committee there's work still ongoing there but it sounds like at least it's backed off from the original position they started with which was basically it was the one which divided all du engineering into either landbased or technological I think if I remember rightly and basically said land bases is all wonderful and all the technological is terrible technological so something like that so technological so but I I thought |
| 50:41 | landbase is isn't landbased isn't that technological some of it certainly should be yeah anyway that's now I think da sounds about 70% of the planet they just it's either land or or direct air capture what about ocean capture that's interesting so is there any uh publication uh by that group that you were saying the section uh regarding the there's several documents I can put me together I have got it somewhere but I'm not sure I can lay my hands on it instantly but I'll I'll U put it on the |
| 51:20 | in the email to the group perhaps if I can find that stuff thank you Chris OB interested in reading it and hearing the evolution thank you okay so what else we got there so uh Brian Jim Hansen's uh report so there's this July report and maybe the so the Flying Blind is the is an August report isn't it so Jim H reports yeah I've only read the July one um but I'm looking forward to reading the August one and uh in a nutshell um they have the top of the July statement has um three gaussian curves and if |
| 51:56 | someone has it they can share their screen but the first one was the um northern hemisphere terrestrial temperatures in the summer uh During the period 1950 to 1980 by memory the middle one was 1990 to 2000 and the third one on the right was 2010 to 2020 and what he said is that the dice are loaded okay and that's interesting because in 19 uh 60s 1970s let's say um if you rolled a one two or three on a die you'd get a cooler than average summer and if you rolled a four five or six you get a warmer than average summer fast forward |
| 52:31 | to the 2010s and if you rolled a one you'd get a cooler summer if you rolled a two three four or five you'd get a warmer summer and if you rolled a six then you would get a summer that was 3 degrees Celsius above normal and that appears to be what we got in 2022 and so um the die are loaded and you know five out of six rolls are going to get you a warmer than average sum summer uh based on the last decade there you go you got the screen up yeah that's it and the right one is now highly red you know used to be 5050 |
| 53:04 | blue and red well now it's now five out of six is red and that purple one over on the right is is rolling a six and that's just really bad news um so anyway I thought that was very interesting on how the die are now loaded and help a good way to help explain to a audience uh how the you know how the die are loaded and yeah you could still get one out of six Summers that are cooler that doesn't mean you don't you're not working with loaded dice yeah the only problem with that is that in terms of Sigma events you you |
| 53:36 | need a a a dice with a couple of thousand sides on it it's a much bigger jump than just you know one to six isn't it well it is yeah I mean I guess uh you know you're looking at that diminishing blue triangle on the rightmost picture and it's looking like less than one out of six so it's kind of a conservative estimate Six Sigma event and the chances of that you know it's one many many [Music] thousands yes no it's great uh you know I think uh this is just one way of describing it I think it's a good way of |
| 54:13 | describing the gaussian shift and uh most concerning to me is the severe conditions that we're going to be seeing on rolling fives and sixes uh in the coming years yeah yeah it's very clear on this and you look at the first one and you know it extends out to three on the red side and you go far right hand side and it's extending out Beyond six yeah yeah very concerning yeah I agree yeah did anyone read that um paper for that yeah the one that you sent some brew that that one from was is he an NASA guy it's the the uh sort of busy |
| 54:54 | Person's Guide to the apocalypse I think it's called oh yes oh yes yeah Round Up um it's so I wouldn't say it's quite as dire because he's missed out on the whole biomass loss side of things but it's I I find it very useful just to put people in the picture yeah it's very detailed and uh lots of useful links I found it very useful so but dire enough you're saying it should it's it should be even more dire well no no I'm saying that he no he's very very dire about it but actually he's missed |
| 55:32 | out on some of the solutions opportunities oh some the solutions gotcha yeah yes okay yes fair enough yeah um yeah so um We're Not Dead Yet quite no no I was going to say uh my um uh nephew we had a sort of get together family get together and uh don't see him that much and he's in London now and he he's a uh he's become an English teacher you know he's young man and U didn't really know anything about climate and I was explaining you know it's might all be over in 10 to 15 years you know and you |
| 56:11 | know need to get the message out he said we know that now he said we that's generally known isn't it so what's new about that he was very matter of fact about it so he's not not a scientist of any sort so I think sters do talk to each other they do there there's huge climate anxiety amongst the young growing anxi yeah no surprise and I I think you know the AL situation is going to be kicking into full force by sort of March April next year and I suspect that 2004 is going to be absolutely bloody terrifying 2024 2024 |
| 56:49 | yeah yeah next year so things will change and people like the CTC lot we they they're going to become very IR relevant yeah yeah yeah okay thank you yeah um so what else we got yeah so the um uh blind report yeah show you the uh just need to share the screen when you're finished uh yeah go for it just show you the front page of that it's actually September 14th September so it's only a couple of weeks old this paper so if you look at the top the curves there is interesting it shows you the how the El Nino the starting |
| 57:35 | year for El ninos and um starting with month one and going and how the different periods of 97 in the bottom one 2015 the green one and 2023 the current one which is already well above any record in the past and is trending obviously a lot higher than tell L know so as uh Brew was saying 2024 could be pretty dramatic yeah yeah so look at how the other ones go up beyond that point oh yeah yeah yeah yeah if you look down just at the um some other figures there but also if you look at the little abstract he does talk about the eii the Earth imbalance |
| 58:22 | and also complains about the fact that in the satellite mon in the right uh uh data things um but he says we must call the planet to avoid this disastrous consequences so he becoming more definitive I think as even over the last six months to a year yeah not on that page he's not saying it there is he he says it there is he uh oh he must call the planet yes the void okay yeah right yeah uh to continue even this Vital Earth Energy imbalance monitoring so um so what what is this satellite then is it what's it supposed to be |
| 59:01 | measuring yeah sens what is it that's needed does he you have to go into the paper to find out the detail but couple of things that needed monitoring and he's tried to get people to do it but then no one seems interested in putting the right sensors on the satellite to measure the keepy these key parameters you'd have to read down through the is he is actually saying failure to measure aerosol climate forcing is partly compens compensated by precise monitoring of Earth IM energy imbalance details so |
| 59:31 | they're not measuring AA Sal climate forcing yeah so and that's why the the IPC that that bar graph has always got huge error bars on it they just don't know how much cloud coolings is happening um from pollution as it were so uh okay that's what so it is actually aerosol which we obviously we need that we're if we're talking about um Marine Cloud brightening to cool the planet and there's nothing to measure it no satellite to measure it properly we're the other interesting thing is this top |
| 1:00:03 | right corner of this graph you see where the 12 month running means for what he call Super El ninos the last one pecked up a long way above the general running Trend and presumably my implication what's coming now is going to do something similar but further off and further up into the right of that one and what's the difference in temperature between the last two then that's sort of anomalies are there's 2. |
| 1:00:28 | 2 de between each of those tick marks there so it's about something like2 degrees from the running mean to the top of that looks like4 because it's got 0.9 to 1.3 maybe yeah between those two as you're saying it's a tick it's two between the the each box is two and it's a and it's actually two boxes higher so it's two times two yeah you have to add in the uh the slope of the uh the main curve as well is going up by yeah2 every 20 years you've got a rising Baseline to take into account in other |
| 1:01:07 | words yeah and the last one you brought up looked like it might go up to 1.6 so which would be pretty much consistent with this 1.6 degrees so we're going to go break you know blast through the 1.5 um barrier diagrams are quite interesting from the point of view of the axis if you take the the vertical axis on it and just stretch it as you can do just by taking the window out and dragging it so you make it a lot higher then you start to see the Curves in these things much more dramatically that exponential |
| 1:01:42 | movement yeah I just add a couple of comments here the this the material in this this piece is is largely taken from his uh uh warming in the pipe line paper and um in fact I had an a direct s a private communication with Jim Hansen last week or week before and he sent me um what um he hopes is going to be the published version of the of the paper uh and and asked me I have to say not to circulate it but it is it is substantially the same as the earlier version uh except for the abstract which has been largely Rewritten to make it |
| 1:02:22 | very much more Punchy but the the the the things that we need to bear in mind here and the reason he's now talking about calling so um explicitly is that he's he's effectively um made two big changes to the to the Orthodoxy in this paper one is uh to do with the way in which climate sensitivity is calculated and there's a long long section in which he details um where the three degrees for a doubling of CO2 comes from and and what its limitations are and I I was astounded to discover that when the when |
| 1:03:04 | the this statistic was generated a few decades ago the the Americans um Charney and his colleagues that did this explicitly excluded uh certain forcings because they regarded them as being too slow to have any significant short short-term impact so the three degre C um warming on a equilibrium temperature on a warming on on a doubling of CO2 explicitly excludes um changes to ice sheet cover and also exp explicitly excludes um land use change and also explicitly excludes non long life non non non CO2 greenhouse |
| 1:03:53 | gases short lived no he actually explicitly says the the the long lived ones oh um uh because of which is really kind of the modern the modern ones and what he does in this paper is really quite fascinating because he's he's he he says you know that basically all of the work on climate sensitivity hither to has been done with models because because we don't have observational data and so what he has done here is he has used some relatively new proxy data that goes back right through the ca Zone which is which is back to the dinosaurs |
| 1:04:27 | okay and and he's and he's using this data to to kind of reverse engineer what the climate forces what actually what the climate sensitivity was uh at various stages through this period and without going through the details now um he comes up with some very very simple arithmetic which is where the 10° uh C comes from and actually when when you when you follow it from it's it's it's not easy to well I didn't find it easy to follow through but when actually I had finally done it I was thinking my |
| 1:04:59 | God this is just this is so simple um it's it's kind of frightening um so the 10 degrees is the equilibrium warming and you think well that's that's the 10 degrees that compares with the three degrees that we have historically used that's the first thing so hang on you're saying there's a 10 degrees rise for a doubling of CO2 10 degree rise on on he's he's actually he's kind of Shifting the goalpost slightly because what he's what he's done is he's he's |
| 1:05:29 | he's taken into account the non-co2 greenhouse gases and effectively said that we are now at about 550 parts per million CO2 equivalent with methane and all that sort of thing other bits and pieces which broadly doubling of the pre-industrial and he actually also addresses a small detail which is actually I thought rather a nice detail where he says really we shouldn't be talking about pre-industrial we should be talking about 7,000 years before the present because there was already a very clear anthropogenic |
| 1:06:05 | signal that started with agriculture 7,000 years ago so the pre-industrial figure of of which is generally taken as 278 parts of million really we should be talking about if you want to use prehuman it's actually more accurately 260 parts per million U so that was a kind of a nice little detail and so he so he he generates this thing so you've got the 10° C is a is the equilibrium warming on a doubling of greenhouse gas CO2 equivalents okay which is where we're at so the next thing that's that's a big |
| 1:06:41 | change from Three Degrees to 10 degrees that's a big change the next thing he does which is I think even scarier is he then examines the climate response time so the climate response time is the time time it takes for a change in the forcing to be reflected in a change in the surface temperature because it doesn't happen just like that it happens time slowly um the the Orthodox position is this takes somewhere between 10 and 25 years and this 10 to 25 years um is predicated on calculations that assume a |
| 1:07:24 | uh an equilibrium climate sensitivity would you believe of 3 degre C but if you use 10 degre C you get a slightly different result and um so he works through these calculations and what he ends up with and also again using uh data um from the from the distant past paleo data that he uses to verify his his calculation so it's not just modeling he's using admittedly proxy data but his data nevertheless um and he he um he comes up and he said well actually the climate the the the climate response time far |
| 1:07:59 | from being 10 or 25 years is actually more like a hundred years so and that means that and that's just again for those of you that are familiar with with the mass that's an e-folding time so after a 100 years after the change in forcing 63% of the equilibrium temperature will have been realized so you can think of it every hundred years you've got 37% left of what started that Century with you know if you just do thetic you'll find it after three or 400 years there's almost nothing there but so so |
| 1:08:33 | when you were talking looking at that graph a moment ago and you're looking at those temperatures they correspond to his new assessment of a a much higher equilibrium climate sensitivity and a much longer climate response time so the so the the the greenhouse gases have much more time to do the warming than was previously the case and that's why you're going to see these temperatures go up and then you've got the Joker is the aerosols we talking about before and all the uncertainties about what happens with those so and |
| 1:09:11 | again just to stress and it's a really important point this that in all the all of these numbers including the ones that you've referred to just now they're all based upon the assumption that um atmospheric they're all based upon doubling of CO2 equivalent so they they assume that going forward we remain at current atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases if you know by 2050 we're down to zero Net Zero the circumstances will be different and and and his figures will not apply temperature will not come off |
| 1:09:47 | as quickly as people imagine but you know it's not the 10 degrees because obviously he's assuming that the concentrations remain the same and again just to be clear about that it's not the same as saying um that emissions will remain at the same level what he's saying is the emissions will drop he doesn't actually do the calculation here but effectively the emissions will drop so they simply offset what is removed naturally from the atmosphere so that in effect atmospheric concentration stays |
| 1:10:18 | where it is today what we you know and that's uh that's the calculation so so sorry so he's saying if we can get it so that the concentration stays the same as today then we'll get it at 10 degrees rise that take but take it'll take a few hundred years for the whole 10 degrees to come through but you get you get five degrees by the end of this Century wow the whole in the calculation is that when he looks at the Paleo record and they look back over the past 6 700,000 years throughout all of that period by |
| 1:10:54 | the last 7,000 years that was double the amount of life on the planet I've said this before with its dampening effect its forestry and its ocean ocean cooling effects the planet's ability to cool itself that's gone at least 50% of it is gone so even those figures may be under calculation yeah I mean possibly true yeah it'd be quite interesting to ask him that question how how he's whe whether or not has considered that but uh in any event the these numbers are very much more dramatic and it's basically this |
| 1:11:30 | reassessment on his part or or this update is more more than a reassessment his update because it's quite consistent with his earlier um his earlier thinking but um it is this is why he's now saying that we have to that calling is essential because there is no because the response times are too slow so even if you went to Net Zero tomorrow you're not going to get sufficient calling uh to to avert um you know whatever dis climate disasters you are worried about you're not going to get any cooling if you go |
| 1:12:00 | to Net Zero tomorrow you're not going to get any cooling well you're not get any coing indeed that's true yeah just make sure I understand it properly yeah yes thank you very much Robert thank you okay Brian please yeah just wanted to add that and and to add to Brew's comments um I just read a paper in the last week or two documenting the uh interesting role of csid tpin and I may be getting that L slightly wrong from trees and Forest and their role in what is a SES turpine yeah tpin are um some of the Vol |
| 1:12:40 | Oran yeah sorry yeah go yeah put out my Pine Forest yeah emissions into the air it's the pine con smell that you smell and other things but it turns out these um cesit tpin represent less than 2 % of the Turpin produced by U these trees but potentially represent half of the cloud formation above forests uh if I recall the article correctly it was in LinkedIn last week or two and um what's interesting is the role of forests in uh in creating clouds uh and and contributing to cloud cover and the rather nonlinear phenomena |
| 1:13:19 | kind of like s sulfur in the atmosphere um in nucleating clouds uh over forests and so I think um you know doubling up on what Brew is talking about you know in these previous um geological history we had all these forests to work with to actually get us back to normal and uh you know we're missing at least half that Forest now with Agriculture and I would extend that to uh some of the algae forests in the sea and their responsibility for producing dimethyl sulfide and dimethyl sulfoxide which have a pivotal role in |
| 1:13:53 | Cloud seeding of marine Cloud layers as well yeah so losing the boreal forests we're losing a lot of cloud in the northern hemisphere yes T oh good I think Hugh hunt contributed the article in the chat so I apparently pronounced it approximately correctly cesa tpine so I think you got I think I saw the same article good good briefly anyway so I think it's it's UND scores the facts that life has a huge and profound influence on climate of the Earth in addition to climate having a profound influence on life so we have to |
| 1:14:32 | consider these complex systems together in uh identifying Pathways towards a healthy climate thank you Chris yeah I was just going to say that what Robert's been describing does rather blow a large hole in what um El Gore has been saying that oh yeah once we get to net zero five or 10 years things will all be fine yeah absolutely which I always thought was a cloud land right Gore did did admit that the Arctic would continue melting did oh just a little his T he said well we're not going to warm up anymore the Arctic will continue melting |
| 1:15:12 | you know Greenland will continue melting you know he did and we'll get sea level rise as well yes exactly one other little detail about the the uh from the communication I had with Jim Hansen he commented that when he when he was telling me that he was expecting that the current version is the version that will be published he said that this was in the teeth of fierce opposition from one ipcc lead author he didn't say who it was then he did not name him no no had a lot of they've had a lot of push back I think from it well |
| 1:15:54 | challenging the Orthodoxy SCI scientific progress progresses one funeral at a time yeah yeah because there's a whole bunch of them that said no no no if you S zero it'll it'll just come to stop you know this warming will stop and Susan Solomon was one of those Professor Suman Solomon I believe but I don't know about Michael Michael man but yeah this is the reason for this is we have to understand the reason for this is is because of the the McDougall paper from 2020 which is which is the centerpiece of AR six's |
| 1:16:26 | treatment of the zero emissions commitment and that you know that is a a modeling exercise what McDoodle did was he got I think it was six different modeling teams actually no I think it was 12 different modeling teams to model um basically uh you know stopping stopping different scenarios where you just simply stopped overnight your emissions uh they they had different scenarios for ramping up to one pagram of in in total one sorry one one billion tons of carbon emissions cumulative emissions and then you stop overnight boom and they were |
| 1:17:06 | tracking through and basically they they this was the analysis it was a whole model exercise and the analysis came up with some wide a wide range of different results but when you took the average of them um they said that uh you know 20 years or so after you got to Net Zero um the temperature uh flattened out and it was you know it wasn't sure it was a a positive or A negative swing but it was within three of three of a degree or something it just it was somewhere around zero so that's why they was all |
| 1:17:39 | from that it's a totally a modeling base exercise and again the all of the models concerned are using very low uh equ equ equilibrium climate sensitivities so again if if we would use Hansen's figure from his recent things you'd get a very very different uh a very different outcome so uh that's where that's where that whole thing comes from you know it's entirely modelbased and it's not been subject to any kind of empirical verification right yeah all models are wrong some are useful but many are |
| 1:18:16 | misleading so you don't know until after the event which one will be sleeping yeah should ask Al Gore you know you've admitted that uh even if the Earth stops warming the ice will continue melting well what happens when all the ice melts I mean we know if you take ice water on a burner it's the temperature is not going to change till all the ice melts and then it takes off like a Skyrocket in terms of temperature increase so when we do melt all that ice you know where's all where's the lat and Heat going to go |
| 1:18:46 | after that we'll also have more than 10 meters of sea level rise by that time as well exactly yeah yeah so it's who who's yeah okay okay thank you yeah herb um first uh Robert knows that he has been extremely patient and generous with his time as I periodically write to him asking him to explain various aspects of Hansen's paper that I still can't get my head around but given that I I just and and not to well we're sort of limited on time anyway but I just wanted to quote from a I think many of |
| 1:19:24 | you know that I live half my life for Better or For Worse it's probably for Worse on Twitter and I want a quote from Hansen uh who made a tweet in in July actually uh where he says in responding to someone else he says if emissions ceased today warming would not reach 2. uh 2 degrees C not even close but emissions will not cease and negative emission scenarios of the ipcc are unrealistic we scientists have have not adequately advised the UN process is that consistent with everything you've said Robert yeah okay it makes it worse |
| 1:20:03 | Hansen has got this big thing about scientists responsibilities to society and he and he he he doesn't miss many opportunities to criticize his fellow scientists for their Ivory Tower uh Behavior you know and um he he you know and he's well known for having taken political positions taking not so much I use the word political with a small P here you know we're taking um social positions on these issues because he thinks that scientists have a responsibility uh to tell them you know to tell the world how |
| 1:20:39 | it is not just to tell them what the data says but to give the society the benefit of their wisdom and he feels that many scientists are uh being too koi and too protective of their professional status and their income streams and their um you know their positions in their academic institutions well yeah I mean he he I think he he uses the term and probably coin the term years ago scientific reticence she wrote about a lot um that you know sort of speaks for itself uh and well all I can say is I hope it the the paper comes out before cop because I |
| 1:21:21 | think it would help not that cop is a sign scientific meeting but it's certainly informed by science and it might inject a bit of realism as naive as that might be to even suggest uh into the an urgency into the cop deliberations and I think we should we should all try to get tickets for the Michael man James Hansen uh Showdown after the paper is published because that uh will be both entertaining and extremely uh important yeah so Robert Robert are you saying that if um you put the equilibrium climate sensitivity that |
| 1:21:56 | Hansen has into those six or 12 papers uh studies that McDonald reported on you would get that 10 degrees or or is there something additional uh well I can't answer that question directly of course because those those figures came out of models what I do know well what what I understand I mean it's not I'm not a climate scientist as you know so I get I I I I'm I'm receiving this stuff from various sources and I and I take it at face value but my understanding is that um uh the particularly the climate |
| 1:22:30 | response time makes a huge difference to the amount of warming that is generated from the uh from the equilibrium climate sensitivity because obviously if you know if it's if the heat is dissipating more slowly then it's going to be melting more ice along the way I it's a you know it's kind of self-evident it's not I mean it's not it's not the physics are not difficult to understand and and the answer to your question is yes I'm pretty certain that is the case but what the numbers are uh I I really don't know |
| 1:23:00 | but one of the points he makes I think somewhere if I recall correctly is that the difference between um the difference between uh the climate sensitivity of three and 10 is not linear it's actually quadratic because of the way the the math works so what goes up with with the sort of square or the with what goes up what is it that goes up what what goes up is the uh is the damage being done because you've got a well okay I mean we know that we know that even six degrees is Armageddon they mind 10 degrees yeah so yeah yeah it's |
| 1:23:42 | what makes more sense to me is is uh that they if they were include included that climate sensitivity of 10° that they're that their whole story would be completely different it's it's that it's that 10 degrees that's the equilibrium climate sensitivity that you know once it's all settled out it'll be 10 degrees hotter no matter how long it takes or short it takes Pro actually that that set me straight on this because it's it's essentially sort of black body physics you know that it takes time for the |
| 1:24:15 | inside and the outside to yeah yeah equate that that assumes we stop at a doubling yeah yeah which be would isn't it also the case that you need to include methane nitrous oxide cfc's um which is not at present uh as Central in in the ipcc analysis as it ought to be well I I think the answer that is yes and I think that Hansen thinks he's done that because he he calculated that um well you this is where I kind of I I get I rapidly get out of my depth here because of course there were no cfc's in the |
| 1:24:58 | Cent zoic you know or indeed in you know until the last 100 years or so if if if even even actually more recently than that but um he includes he he determined from his analysis of the cazic data that the non-co2 greenhouse gases essentially um had a forcing effect that was 25% of the CO2 and that it was more or less flat throughout the period whereas the ice cover forcing was not was much more variable but he calculated that that the that the forcing from the non-co2 gases was around 25% of the CO2 and he just what |
| 1:25:46 | he does in his in his simple mathematical arithmetic at the end is he calculates his figure and then he adds on 25% of the CO2 figure to to to to account for the non CO2 gases okay all right get I get the general drift I the important thing is 10 degrees is we're in for at least we're in for at least 10 degrees because Net Zero isn't going to happen anyway remember the 10 degrees it's going to take 400 years to get there but you know and that and it also assume it also assumes that excuse me that um |
| 1:26:30 | atmospheric concentrations stay where they are today yeah they carry on increasing yeah it'll be it'll be even hotter yeah on the other hand arguably by the end of the century if we go where we're headed there going to be so few people and the emissions are going to completely stop down to almost nothing industry will be gone will be a piece of a piece of become a piece of archaeological history and so so the you know so it's not we're not looking at a a lengthy period or or you know many many decades |
| 1:27:06 | where emissions are going to be carrying on at this level right but there could be a lot of methane bursts oh that's true yeah that's true there could be a lot of methane bursts but it that dissipates quite quickly I mean I don't know how what will happen yeah I mean I don't there all these all these issues yeah so Clive you need to have another chat with that young person to to to to see whether the time scale that they were thinking about is really realistic or not 10 years 15 years tell them that it's going to be |
| 1:27:39 | shorter I I think we need people like Ursula who's listening patiently to make an absolute stink I mean what are these people thinking about the lives of the young people of today they're not it's absolute travesty of justice and Humanity these people Ivory tar yes but you know all this opposition to strates V arol injection it's it's it's Madness it's it's it's good oldfashioned mauian politics because the people that don't want to do it want to retain their power and Wealthy influence that's why |
| 1:28:30 | it's quite simple and and we're they're operating in a completely disconnected domain from ours I I think the young people have to stand up and call a Hal and say look we've got plenty enough evidence now that the current strategy is going to be an absolute disaster for us let's get on with this cooling For Heaven's Sake get on with the cooling yeah I mean isn't this isn't this you know we're always prevaricating about cooling by spending so much time arguing about which cooling methods |
| 1:29:15 | is is is better or worse we ought to be tring them all and getting on with it and then getting preparing to the challenge the challenge the challenge John is to find the pathway to making that happen so it's you know this is I'm suggesting the pathway is through through young people standing up and say look this is just unacceptable for us one of the go on Robert say you know but one one one of the problems here is that the young people that you're referring to they're like everybody else they're all over the place so you've got |
| 1:29:54 | people like Greta tumberg for example whose voice is very powerful who is totally Dead Set against calling yeah she needs to be she needs to be reprogrammed yeah well we should make our materials available we're working on it with the website and it looks like we're going to hook up with blue cooling with the Noak website um that dalean bu Jay and U wter vanan I think and and and Hans vandeloo they've they've got a a website called Blue Cooling and we've been we've asked we've been asked |
| 1:30:27 | whether we'd like our Noak website to to sort of be behind their as that be the sort of science behind their sort of uh you know top high level website and and we've essentially agreed and said yeah let's get on with it so that if if all this you know hits the fan as it were at the cop next cop um that uh this is what's in the pipeline then people are going to be looking to these our sort of material so we want to make sure when is the cop it's next next year when is it no November 30th this November BL me |
| 1:31:00 | neck November 30th starts so we want to get our we that that's um and that's what we said that's what she she they she told us I said when's your website going to be ready she she said a couple of months so that is where where where are we now hang on end of November so that's one month away no h hang on yeah that's right two months away so that's we've got two months to get our stuff looking ship shaped cuz people are going to be descending on it and saying you know what is it what can you do you |
| 1:31:31 | know just dropped a link people to David Wale's paper on climate sensitivity he came up with this near five six years ago and basically won the argument with James Hansen but if you want to click on that and have a copy of it's a very interesting read but he won it against Jim Hansen or he agreed with Jim Hanson it got Jim Hanson to agree with him the David was there first you'll see it in the the um in this paper I've just put sent you the link to but that it's going to be hotter than they thought 10 10 |
| 1:32:01 | degrees the sensitivity figure okay all this all the data is in that paper of just but great thank you I think the reason we're here is because we think the same way as as Jim Hansen I read his uh some of my grandchildren over 10 years ago and I remember him saying that he he said that uh as far as his grandchildren he made a difference when his grandchildren were born and he said um that they they he had a duty that they would say you know Opa as they call um from the Swedish I think uh if opar should make it clear if if opar didn't |
| 1:32:41 | make it clear what's going to be happening then how could he live with themselves and how could they have any respect for him so that's where he's coming from for me it's the same you how can you let this go without saying something without shouting from the rooftops about all the things that could help there we go any comment illa well it's rather depressing I mean it's really um I mean it's it's a it's um I think the message that how bad it really is really needs to get really I mean |
| 1:33:21 | people can see with through all the weather events that have been going on but still there's a resistance you know still they're being told you know it seems that governments and the you know the ipcc or whatever they're called that um these big organizations aren't willing to admit really just how quickly things are unraveling and that really needs to be um you know it need really needs to be shoved down people's throats and and really uh and and for people to know that there is you know that therefore we |
| 1:33:59 | must do something I.E cool the planet quickly but until people really realize how bad it really is looking then I think I don't happen you know if it's gonna happen yeah problem the problem here is exactly as URS is saying there is no sense of urgency y that's the problem there's no yeah I if if I could um I know we have to wrap up now it's you and PE yeah I just want to say some of you may have uh watched some of the sessions at the resources for the future conference on uh geoengineering research Thursday and |
| 1:34:44 | Friday that had a lot of the people that we know pet Irvine and David Keith and Dan vizion and Holly jeene buck a whole lot of you know sort of the the folks doing the research I watched most of the sessions and while they were intellectually fascinating there was barely the slightest bit of urgency that anybody expressed whatsoever it was like well you know it's like if we ever need it you know it'll take about 20 years to do all the research and sort out the you know the positives and figure out how to |
| 1:35:15 | build the planes and all that and these were for you know for the people obviously who know more about the technical aspects of it than almost anybody in the world so it's not just about the political leaders that um are not exhibiting any sense of urgency um you know I found it not surprising but but very distressing to hear even even just to say it symbolically at the beginning we you know this is urg this is emergency how do we focus our research to get this done you know in as few years as as as possible no one I |
| 1:35:51 | didn't hear at least any anyone say anything like that the entire two days yeah and Hugh so I know we're wrapping up now but I just wanted firstly formally to to con to say that David King is no longer associated with the center for climate repair in Cambridge so I mean that message seems not to have got through so if anyone is referring to Center for climate repair please don't um associate David King with it is there anything you can say about that that's news to me no no it's been it's been the case since |
| 1:36:25 | beginning of the year um so um anyway that's why he's not replying to me so anyway he he he's moved on from the uh the center for climate in Cambridge Sean Fitzgerald is the director I'm the deputy director and we're going strong um but David King is not part of the center for climent repair in Cambridge uh secondly um I know we're not going to get onto our methane discussion but um just just to park in your minds that there's been some some recent stuff talked about um sources of methane |
| 1:36:55 | agricultural methane rice patties and know from India and China it continues to bother me that that the the elephant in the room is fugitive methane from uh from from no we're going to be moving more and more towards methane as the energy source the clean energy source but you only need 2 or 3% Le AG from methane production methane pipelines to make methane a dirtier from a carbon point of view fuel than coal um I just wonder whether we're being diverted into looking at the the the villains being the uh the the rice |
| 1:37:40 | patties in China and India so that we don't look at the um the real vill villains which are continue to be the the fossil fuel industry um but look that's that we not not going we're not going to have time for that methane discussion so I don't want to enter into that but I do want to ask if whether maybe in one of our F future meetings I could get one of the young people from Finland uh from Opera Artis to join our meeting on a Monday night um I don't know whether you saw Robert tulip's um |
| 1:38:10 | rather long uh email today to uh uh Carrie uh Kelly W about the uh know the the the kind of the new regime where the young people have got the voice um so I'm going to if it's all right with you maybe I should see if I can get a uh to get one of the operatio actors people to join us for for 10 or 15 minutes on Monday everyone's welcome there's there's I I know I know everyone's welcome but sometimes you get people to come along and they end up sitting in the background and never been given an |
| 1:38:44 | opportunity to speak well they can you can yeah you could put as long as they're there at the beginning that's the agenda we want this person to speak and that'll be yeah so I guess I'm flagging it up for for a future meeting um I'll see if I can get one or two of them to join and maybe we should give them a reasonable very happy to yeah okay we want variety yeah I let I let the other conversation go on um perhaps because people like me and France and certain others we've been talking about methane |
| 1:39:15 | in cessant for two years um uh all about fugitive missions and Emissions did you know that Martin herpen um had a paper out that uh measured methane removal by iron salt aerosol uh natural iron uh in the Caribbean mainly the Caribbean taking lots of measurements and uh they measured isotopes of was what was the is carbon isotope of of methane and saw that actually fossil fuels is a bit less than than than had been previously thought and uh uh um M emissions from vegetation you know is is is more more there's more |
| 1:40:01 | more from them so as in rice patties and wetlands as well so a little bit more so there's a slight change but but um yeah sorry about that um Hugh we have run out of time and it's a good thing to mention so you can bring that up next time as well we can say say more about that put that right at the beginning next time yeah okay thank you every body that's it and uh so I'll do the usual I'll get the transcript and see you again in a couple of weeks if not before thank you bye everyone sure bye |
| 1:40:33 | all thanks very much bye bye all right do you want to talk to me friend yes if you have a minute yeah yeah yeah I'll I'll turn it off and |