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Advice to WMO on COP29 Planetary Albedo Discussion (9/2/2024 5:25:47 AM robert@rtulip.net)
Here are my initial thoughts on a proposed approach for WMO, which will convene a seminar addressing albedo measures at COP 29.
The World Meteorological Organisation should advocate to IPCC and COP to recognise albedo loss and carbon increase as equal causes of warming, and to institute action to increase planetary albedo.
The loss of planetary reflectivity this century approaches 2%, with risk of a downward spiral into a darker and hotter world. Reversing this decline in albedo is ONE OF the most essential urgent task to slow climate change.
Once albedo is stabilised, longer term programs to reduce GHG stock and flow can be more fully addressed. In no way can these steps be decoupled, as higher albedo is a precondition and prerequisite for lower GHGs. Without higher albedo, CO2 and CH4 feedback amplification increases, creating catastrophic risk. That applies under any emission scenario. Work on both carbon and albedo needs to proceed concurrently. This final sentence is inconsistent with the paragraph's first word. To avoid confusion we should always stress that both are essential and equally urgent.
Radiative forcing is the key metric of climate change. A return to radiative balance is required for Earth System Stability. An augmented policy focus should add to the goal of net zero emissions, supporting a new goal of net zero heating, where cooling forcings equal warming forcings, delivered primarily through enhanced albedo. But before we get to NZH, we need to have a period of negative EEI to expel excess accumulated energy back to space.
Atmospheric aerosols are the most promising cooling forcing. Other measures include cirrus cloud thinning, snow and ice preservation, ocean methods and mirrors. Space based albedo technology is also possible. The array of proposed cooling measures are explained at Addressing the Urgent Need for Direct Climate Cooling: Rationale and Options
our paper for publication by Oxford Open Climate Change.
WMO should recommend to governments to institute an international albedo governance agenda, aiming to establish a scientific body able to assess and fund albedo measures, possibly modelled on the International Astronomical Union. Safe, acceptable and effective international governance is essential to coordinate the required action to increase albedo.
Marine Cloud Brightening could prove the most acceptable and effective way to introduce the concept of higher albedo as a climate goal, as James Hansen suggested in his Global Warming in the Pipeline paper. The aim should be to develop a program of political and technical implementation of MCB
funding engineering, modelling and advocacy, leading to field tests under scientific and engineering management for safety, monitoring and review, reporting to an international governance body and governments, while engaging with communities, media, academia, business and the public. A feasibility study should be commissioned by bodies such as the UK Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) and/or other national and international agencies.
Machine learning provides powerful tools to optimise questions such as where, when, what and how to apply cooling technologies in order to achieve best global results that most improve conditions for the whole planet, aiming for no losers. All major public policy interventions always generate some losers and most often who they turn out to be is unknowable at the time the policy is implemented. Systems are required to minimise the impact and cost of errors that can be guaranteed to emerge in some form at some time in some place. Old systems should only be displaced by new and better agreed methods. 'Better' introduces all kinds of difficult value judgements. It's probably wise to use different language. Research into the use of AI for solar geoengineering offers high potential in both technology development and social acceptance as a cooling strategy.
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection is a major essential program. SAI can begin at homeopathic scale, adding sulphur or other reflective aerosols to the high atmosphere and measuring for any effect. Don't start me off on homoeopathy! It is a phenomenonally helpful form of medical intervention that has been marginalised by the dominant paradigm of what constitutes 'the scientific method'. It is a superb illustration of the limitations on progress imposed by powerful and dogmatic learned orthodoxy. Homeopathy works almost entirely through feedbacks because the remedy itself generally has no active ingredients. Climate change is 30% direct forcing and 70% indirect forcing from feedbacks. We should be very comfortable with the idea of using benign interventions that have no direct impact but 100% indirect impact. If we could develop climate interventions that were truly homoeopathic, all our problems would be solved! Sadly, that's not gong to happen. As safety and impacts are measured, governments will be able to decide if the benefits outweigh the risks of increasing aerosol quantity, aiming to cool the planet and prevent collapse of Earth systems.
Removing excess carbon is a trillion tonne mining challenge. About one trillion tonnes of carbon have been added to the air as GHGs. Where does this trillion (10E12) come from? Atmospheric CO2 has increased by ~150ppm which is ~300GtC. If we assume that 50% of emssions have been sequestered in the ocean and on land, that implies total emissions of 600GtC. That is far short of 1,000GtC (one trillion tonnes of C). Removing this vast slug of slag from the atmosphere and oceans should be the end goal to restore the climate to Holocene-equivalent radiative forcings. We don't need to remove it all because a major part of it is removed naturally. The primary contribution to such a large scale carbon goal could be from conversion of ocean biomass using photosynthesis. Only the ocean has the space, the energy and the resources to enable carbon conversion on the scale needed to cut the stock of GHGs. More detail required about what is meant by 'conversion'. The ocean is a delicate ecosystem that is central to sustaining life on Earth. We need to be clear that interventions in the ocean at scale are not going to put that in jeopardy.
Emission reduction only slows the flow of GHGs, without cutting into their stock, and is therefore marginal to the overall need to fix the climate. The stock is being continuously cut by natural processes. The issue here is about timing - are the natural processes reducing the stock fast enough, and if not, what can we do to speed them up. And that begs the question about what is meant by 'fast enough'. GHG stock exceeds annual flow by about one hundred times, so regulating the flow has minimal impact on the stock. Cutting the stock of anthropogenic GHGs is the only thing that will stabilise the climate in the medium term. 'Medium term' again begs the question about timing - how much time have we got? Do natural processes that remove C from the atmosphere need a litte bit of human help?
A triad approach, combining action on albedo and GHG stock and flow, as advocated by the Healthy Planet Action Coalition, can bring albedo into consideration in the IPCC. The World Meteorological Organisation is the best body to present such a proposal to COP 29 in Baku in November. WMO can say that a reassessment of climate policy is required in light of recent extreme weather, indicating the need for higher albedo to mitigate risk. Action on albedo is urgent, and governments should approve research into the most safe, acceptable and effective measures to cool the planet and prevent dangerous warming.
Recognising the intransigence and power of opponents, a lobbying strategy is needed to influence governments to support higher albedo. But as a complement, not as an alternative or priority, to reducing emissions. Broad dissemination of scientific information and commentary can reverse public apprehensions, supporting a well governed and well designed implementation strategy.
Regards
Robert Tulip
HPAC/PRAG/rebrighten.org
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Climate change impacts on insurance and sea level rise in SE US (9/5/2024 9:19:34 PM Ron Baiman)
Dear Colleagues,
https://podcasts.apple.com/my/podcast/fragile-insurers-risky-mortgages-and-the-climate-crisis/id1469270123?i=1000662539954
https://podcasts.apple.com/gh/podcast/the-complex-threat-of-sea-level-rise-w-pulitzer/id1469270123?i=1000656447378
These topics came up in our breakout discussion at the HPAC GM strategy session today. I promised I would share relevant podcasts!
Best,
Ron
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Healthy Planet Action Coalition
Addressing the Urgent Need for Direct Climate Cooling: Rationale and Options
An Open Letter to the IMO Supporting Maritime Transport that Cools the Atmosphere While Preserving Air Quality Benefits
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RFF/Harvard SRM social science research workshop (9/12/2024 8:46:00 AM Tyler Felgenhauer)
Dear Ron,
We regret to inform you that your proposed research presentation, “Addressing the urgent need for direct climate cooling: rationale and options” was not among those chosen for inclusion in the upcoming “2024 SRM Social Science Workshop: Cooperative vs. Non-Cooperative Interventions,” jointly hosted by Resources for the Future and Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program this fall.
Many high quality proposals were submitted, unfortunately many more than could be fit into the time-constrained workshop agenda. Each submission received a thorough and considered review from the review committee, with lengthy discussions and hard choices over which of the outstanding research presentations to accept. We know that you put a lot of time and work into your proposal, and we appreciate this. Thank you for the opportunity to engage with your application.
Although we are unable to offer you a speaker slot, if you are interested and available, we would be happy to have you or a member of your team attend the workshop. We have space in the room for one in-person attendee from your team—or we can welcome as many virtual attendees as you’d like. To signal your interest in either of those options, please register here:
https://form.jotform.com/242034745368156
.
We wish you success in accomplishing your research goals and look forward to staying in touch.
Sincerely,
Billy Pizer, Resources for the Future
Joe Aldy, Harvard University
Massimo Tavoni, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Tyler Felgenhauer, Duke University
Kristin Hayes, Resources for the Future
Milan Elkerbout, Resources for the Future
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Healthy Planet Action Coalition
Addressing the Urgent Need for Direct Climate Cooling: Rationale and Options
An Open Letter to the IMO Supporting Maritime Transport that Cools the Atmosphere While Preserving Air Quality Benefits
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